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Thread: Article: 2014 Draft Board v.1.0

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsin17 View Post
    I have to believe Aaron Nola will be given strong consideration at #5, especially if the first 4 picks are Rodon/Beede/Hoffman/Kolek. He was a (more successful) teammate to Ryan Eades last year so its safe to say we have an extensive history scouting him and Nola is widely regarded to have excellent command of a strong 3 pitch FB/slide/change up mix. He may not have the highest ceiling at 5 but he may be the best bet to reach his ceiling of the remaining starters. He could be viewed as someone who would move through the system quickly a la Wacha/Gausman/Gray/Stephenson and be ready to help in just a couple years. Nola would be especially valuable if we think he could be signed below slot value.
    If the Twins took Nola at #5 I would be pretty upset. While he is a fine pitcher, a player selected in the top 5 needs at least one premium tool. Nola has #3 pitcher written all over him.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    If the Twins took Nola at #5 I would be pretty upset. While he is a fine pitcher, a player selected in the top 5 needs at least one premium tool. Nola has #3 pitcher written all over him.
    I would too, his write up may be similar to Gibson, but Gibson wouldn't have been a good value at #5 either. And that's aside from the fact that Nola's write up also sounds like Alex Wimmers. In fact the write up might actually have been recycled from Alex Wimmers.

    If the first positive listed for a pitcher is "good control" I'll pass. Saying a pitcher has good control is like saying "she has a good personality" instead of "she's hot" about your buddy's girlfriend.

    The first positive attribute about a pitcher I want at # 5 is "overpowering" "misses bats" or "devastating breaking ball."

  3. #43
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    5) Trae Turner, SS, NC St
    The old college shortstop, eh? Do yourself a favor and check how many of the 30 starting shortstops came the major college route. I'll help you out: not many.
    Tulo comes to mind. Sort of like how many aces come from Venezuela or the Dominican? Not many. but would you turn one down or stop looking there.

    While Turner should stick at shortstop at the professional level, he has a lot of value in his legs. With plus-plus speed, Turner could fit nicely at the top of the Twins order. There are questions about his bat (and strength), but he's shown well early this college season.
    His defense at SS is reportedly above average. His hitting stats compare well to Tulo and Evan Longoria and Chuck Knoblauch and they had the advantage of aluminum bats. Of course he might not hit, but there are no questions of his hit tool compared to Gatewood's.

    He's added 10 pounds of muscle. There is no question about his strength. There is some question of his power, but it's not like he is Ben Revere. How much power does a SS need? The median Iso P for a qualifying MLB SS was .115 last year. The median SLG was .381. Emphasizing SLG over OBP is [suboptimal].

    My take: let's bring that college shortstop conversation even closer to home then let's bring it straight to Tobacco Road. Would you be gun-shy about making the same mistake that was made when Levi Michael was drafted? Would you trust that same signing scout? Interesting questions to consider, obviously, and while I think they are two completely different players, the microscope will be fixed closer on Trae Turner.
    That paragraph is much below your usual standards, Jeremy.

    Anyone not named Rodon will have a ton of scrutiny.

    Let's see. An above average defensive SS with a hit tool proven in major college competition. 80 speed and the ability to use it. I will be surprised if he is available at #5. It could make for an agonizing decision.

  4. #44
    I would be very happy if we got Kolek. Nobody can have too much pitching, but given the state of the Twins big league rotation these last few years (and, more than likely, for the next two-ish years to come) I literally do not think it's possible for the Twins to acquire too many arms.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    If the Twins took Nola at #5 I would be pretty upset. While he is a fine pitcher, a player selected in the top 5 needs at least one premium tool. Nola has #3 pitcher written all over him.
    nola bears watching this spring. he wouldn't be my favorite choice but I admit i'm curious about him. while he has the stuff of a number 3 (and it's solid stuff), his command/control and overall pitchability make it play up and he could be a number 2 if things fall right. that's a pretty good pick for number 5 in a draft - a guy that can rocket to the bigs with potential to be a number 2? he's at least on the list.

    I can't believe for a second that weaver would rate ahead of nola.

  6. #46
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    Given how much the Twins shelled-out for pitching this off-season (and the value obtained!), I'm hoping they can select a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher too. A team can win in the playoffs with top starting pitchers and a bit of offense--but they often lose with mediocre pitching and solid offense.

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  8. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vervehound View Post
    nola bears watching this spring. he wouldn't be my favorite choice but I admit i'm curious about him. while he has the stuff of a number 3 (and it's solid stuff), his command/control and overall pitchability make it play up and he could be a number 2 if things fall right. that's a pretty good pick for number 5 in a draft - a guy that can rocket to the bigs with potential to be a number 2? he's at least on the list.

    I can't believe for a second that weaver would rate ahead of nola.
    You are way more optimistic about his stuff than I. Unless his change up magically becomes a 70+ pitch I just don't see it. Also, I could careless how fast he can get to the bigs. Wimmers and Danny Hultzen were both guys pegged to be safe quick to the bigs arms. An injury and mechanical issues have wiped away any value that is given because of "quick to the majors" status.

    I do agree though that it is hard to believe weaver above Nola.

  9. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    An injury and mechanical issues have wiped away any value that is given because of "quick to the majors" status.
    That applies to all pitchers. Hence the expression TINSTAAPP

  10. #49
    Like most Twins fans I would like to see the Twins take one of the top four pitchers (Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede) in the draft, but if they are all taken come pick five, or even if they are not and Alex Jackson is still there, would you like to see the Twins take a chance on him rather than say Tyler Beede?

  11. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    That applies to all pitchers. Hence the expression TINSTAAPP
    Wimmers wasn't looking like a fast track guy long before he got injured. The "quick to the majors" bit is much less predictable than draft wonks pretend. Still as cmb0252 said, I could care less about how quick they get to the majors, get the best upside. Nola will not have the most upside, not sure Turner will either.

  12. #51
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    I am not very enamored by Beede (in the top 5). Kolek yes, but Beede isn't very interesting (yet). Alex Jackson is a guy I want to know more about regardless if the Twins need him. Need is not even part of the equation in the first rd because if first rd'ers hit then you find places to play them.

  13. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I am not very enamored by Beede (in the top 5). Kolek yes, but Beede isn't very interesting (yet). Alex Jackson is a guy I want to know more about regardless if the Twins need him. Need is not even part of the equation in the first rd because if first rd'ers hit then you find places to play them.
    I'll get interested in Jackson once it's been widely disseminated that he will not be catching at the MLB level. Taking a HS catcher has been an awful choice for teams since Mauer and Brian McCann were selected in 2000-01. The best has been Jared Saltalimacchia with a whopping 6.2 WAR. The next best might be Hank Conger. Stay away, guys need to learn to catch in college, not in the minors.

  14. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Butterfingers8 View Post
    Like most Twins fans I would like to see the Twins take one of the top four pitchers (Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek, Beede) in the draft, but if they are all taken come pick five, or even if they are not and Alex Jackson is still there, would you like to see the Twins take a chance on him rather than say Tyler Beede?
    At this point yes, I'll take Jackson over Beede. lack of control and great stuff could one day make him an ace or a shooter hunt. Jackson bat will bring him to the Majors, at catcher or right field.

  15. #54
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    I like Turner as our SS of the future or Jackson as our C of the future and believe both will be available at 5. I view Kolek as an insurance ace, but can't see him getting past King Theo.

  16. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I'll get interested in Jackson once it's been widely disseminated that he will not be catching at the MLB level. Taking a HS catcher has been an awful choice for teams since Mauer and Brian McCann were selected in 2000-01. The best has been Jared Saltalimacchia with a whopping 6.2 WAR. The next best might be Hank Conger. Stay away, guys need to learn to catch in college, not in the minors.
    Excellent point. That was my argument last year against taking McGuire. I'd put Jackson in a different category, though. I think Jackson could end up at 3B if the catching thing doesn't work out. The weird thing is the more advanced his bat shows, the less chance he catches... which would suggest that if he's going very high, he's probably not a catcher professionally.

  17. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone View Post
    I view Kolek as an insurance ace, but can't see him getting past King Theo.
    Stewart got past him last year. I realize that there is not a hitter of Kris Bryant's readiness and quality in this draft. However, I think theo is interested in finding college players in the draft that can make it to the majors quickly. I say this because he seems to be investing a lot of money in the International market for very young, raw players that can develop over time. I think the idea of a "sure thing" out of college appeals to him more in the draft. Just my observation.

  18. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    Excellent point. That was my argument last year against taking McGuire. I'd put Jackson in a different category, though. I think Jackson could end up at 3B if the catching thing doesn't work out. The weird thing is the more advanced his bat shows, the less chance he catches... which would suggest that if he's going very high, he's probably not a catcher professionally.
    Agreed, the sooner it is assumed he won't catch, the more likely it is that his bat is for real. That's the point I'm interested in him. I wouldn't want him "working" on his defense in the minors at the expense of his offensive development.

  19. #58
    I just hope that since this is a deep draft, I would like Kolek, Jackson, or turner in that order. And hopeing that we get talent latter on somebody who thinks to much of themselves.

  20. #59
    ^same except I'd slide Beede between Jackson and Turner
    Last edited by Butterfingers8; 02-24-2014 at 01:07 PM.

  21. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Agreed, the sooner it is assumed he won't catch, the more likely it is that his bat is for real. That's the point I'm interested in him. I wouldn't want him "working" on his defense in the minors at the expense of his offensive development.
    Catcher isn't my first choice--but I can't see why a guy can't develop his defense simultaneously with his offense. It seems to me that all position players are required to develop both offense and defense.

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