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Thread: Mystery teams in on Drew

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.

    The Twins have the best farm system in baseball, and the worst major league product (sans Marlins, Cubs and Astros) in baseball. At some point you can sacrifice a single 2nd round pick in order to greatly improve your major league talent/roster. The Twins window is going to open very quickly with the arrival of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, etc etc over the next couple years, get players that can help now and in the near future instead of 2nd round guy who likely will never make the majors, or won't make it for several years.
    HAs to be 2 years minimum under new CBA to get a compensatory pick + he has to refuse the qualifying offer of around $15M in 2016 for a 34 year old SS...


    I would bet against any team paying him over the qualifying offer in 2016 (likely $15-16M per) if they aren't willing to get him cheaper now for the next 2+ younger years of his career.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Nolasco is unlikely to decline as quickly and has a better track record of success. Drew has a lot of shaky parts of his background, injury history, and has already entered his decline years.

    Signing Stephen Drew is a patch. The Twins, very soon, are going to need to address SS. I'm just hoping they can do more than patch it. And if they need to patch it, I'd rather patch it at that time to maximize the player's ability to contribute.
    1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place?
    2)Drew's injury history consists mostly of one horrific injury sliding into home plate. See- Hardy, JJ for decline phase.
    3) When the Twins offensive boat has such a big hole in it that it's guaranteed to sink over the next 2 years, a Drew Patch amidships, now, maximizes the chances of keeping the Good Ship afloat until we replace the Keel @ SS on a permanent basis.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    You can choose to look at 8.5% of his career games. I disagree with that approach. And I think you are missing the point, just about any metric has Drew superior to Florimon. Lefties, Righties, etc. I agree we do need a better long term answer at SS, which will likely be addressed through the draft and is 3 years away from contributing.

    In the meantime, signing Drew should not change any other payroll related discussion. Our payroll is at $82M. 52% of our revenue this year should be close to $125-130M ($215M revenue last year, plus new TV reveune and all star revenue), and we have $12M off the books after this season in Josh and Correa with rookies likely filling those positions.
    You also need to more heavily weigh games post injury and most recent games. He's not 25 anymore and he's not pre-ankle injury.

    Those numbers are long gone...

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  5. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Why sign Pelfrey, when there are actual SP candidates, but not sign Drew, when there are no SS candidates? I am baffled by that.....

    I am more baffled why the Yanks have not signed him to play 2B.
    or SS next year after Mr. Yankee retires.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place?
    2)Drew's injury history consists mostly of one horrific injury sliding into home plate. See- Hardy, JJ for decline phase.
    3) When the Twins offensive boat has such a big hole in it that it's guaranteed to sink over the next 2 years, a Drew Patch amidships, now, maximizes the chances of keeping the Good Ship afloat until we replace the Keel @ SS on a permanent basis.
    One case does not an argument make. Bill James has a long and thorough analysis of the risks of investing in middle infielders past 30. The upshot: The vast majority are not worth it after age 32. There are exceptions, but they tend to be guys who are wiry and slight of build: Vizquel, Smith, Larkin, Trammel. For each one of those, there are 10 guys like Guzman or Knoblauch who started their declines at at 30 and were effectively done by age 32.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post

    I would not hand out 2nd picks every year, but when you have no MLB talent on the depth chart and you aren't mortgaging the team, have the money, etc. I wouldn't dwell on a 2nd rounder.
    Drew is a rental at best...the Twins are not going to compete in 2014 for sure. And 2015 would be a stretch. Buxton and Sano would have to be everyday contributors from Opening Day 2015.

    With the way the Yankees, Cubs, Rangers and others are abusing the International Signing rules/money - the Twins have pretty much just the draft as a way to acquire premiere talent.

    The Twins aren't going to land the top 1-2 players at a position in free agency and we're not going to win in the playoffs with 2nd Division starter players.

  8. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    btw...."worth it"?

    A WAR in FA now costs over $7MM per year....the new normal. People need to adjust their expectations.
    That includes outliers...the top 5 teams don't function like regular teams - they're statistically irrelevant. Do the Confidence Interval.

  9. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    Nothing embarrassing about Florimon at all.

    Its easy to compare OPS+ between Drew and Floriomon because they are SS's and say done deal. But you are comparing 10 Million a year (Drew)and 6 figures (Florimon).

    Now compare Drew's career numbers with someone else who makes 8 figures and it really doesn't make a lot of sense.

    Don't spend 10 million plus on lack of positional supply. Spend it on someone who actually... You know... Rakes.
    The average SS hit .697 OPS/94 OPS+, Florimon has managed to hit .601 OPS/67 OPS+ in his career with little indication that he can do any better than that. You don't find that the least bit embarrassing?

    Hardy is going to be making 8 figures with already-earned bonuses in 2014, and will be making much more into the 8 figure per anum range on his next contract. He's a career .740 OPS/96 OPS+ hitter versus Drew at .764 OPS/98 OPS+. That makes 2 yrs/$21M look not too bad for Drew.

    If that $10M was proven to be holding the Twins back from signing someone else, I'm all in, but someone who can play a decent SS and hit RHP at somewhere close to .800 OPS at a premium defensive position qualifies as a raker on this team. Nelson Cruz, by contrast, has a career .823 OPS as a part-time, oft-injured player who has averaged 125 games per year, and whose defense really qualifies him as a DH- and he'll be making a lot more than Drew.
    Last edited by jokin; 02-19-2014 at 05:45 PM.

  10. #89
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    [QUOTE=Dman;197541]
    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post

    I kind of agree with the mandate on pitching as I think ownership wants the team to at least be in the game after the first inning and it has to be quite embarrassing to have the ERA this staff had last year. That ERA is an indictment of the front office and TR had to do something to fix it even if it meant bending his principles which I think he did on the Hughes deal as it seemed like an overpay from the normal Twins perspective. Even after all they did in FA the staff is only marginally better with a lot of question marks yet again.

    There wasn't a lot to choose from for position players this year and the Twins have quite a bit of young talent on the way up so i guess I understand there reticence to go after guys until things settle in more for this team.

    They can only afford one more bad or marginally bad year though and they are going to start losing there fan base. It was hard to watch them at the end last year. Hopefully the young talent next year brings everybody back and they start filling the holes.

    I can agree with this...it's hard...and perhaps some sort of 'competitiveness should maybe be required'...though hard to enforce as $$ doesn't correlate to W's very well.


    On the losing side of things...not being all things terrible, I was reading the other day...scouts are saying Rodon (#1 pick in this draft) is a once in a generation talent...

    I have no idea what 2015 holds...unless that LSU SS comes out...he may be the #1 pick.

    But not sure he's on the Rodon level.

  11. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Drew is a rental at best...the Twins are not going to compete in 2014 for sure. And 2015 would be a stretch. Buxton and Sano would have to be everyday contributors from Opening Day 2015.

    With the way the Yankees, Cubs, Rangers and others are abusing the International Signing rules/money - the Twins have pretty much just the draft as a way to acquire premiere talent.

    The Twins aren't going to land the top 1-2 players at a position in free agency and we're not going to win in the playoffs with 2nd Division starter players.
    Name the last "premiere talent" that the Twins drafted in the 2nd round.

    I'm not following you on "2nd Division starter players", is that how you are classifying Florimon.....or Drew?

    And your argument for not signing Drew as a 2 year rental is that "they're going to lose the next 2 years, so why bother"?

    What's so bad about a "rental" (who would also have potential trading value while in the Twns employ)?....Even if the dollars are readily available?....and it doesn't block a prospect?...and you don't block a 1st round potential SS draft pick in 2014 or 2015?....and you don't cripple other team-building maneuvers?...and signing a legitimate big league SS might encourage another quality FA to consider signing next offseason?

  12. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    One case does not an argument make. Bill James has a long and thorough analysis of the risks of investing in middle infielders past 30.

    The upshot: The vast majority are not worth it after age 32.

    There are exceptions, but they tend to be guys who are wiry and slight of build: Vizquel, Smith, Larkin, Trammel. For each one of those, there are 10 guys like Guzman or Knoblauch who started their declines at at 30 and were effectively done by age 32.
    If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.

  13. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Name the last "premiere talent" that the Twins drafted in the 2nd round.

    I'm not following you on "2nd Division starter players", is that how you are classifying Florimon.....or Drew?

    And your argument for not signing Drew as a 2 year rental is that "they're going to lose the next 2 years, so why bother"?

    What's so bad about a "rental" (who would also have potential trading value while in the Twns employ)?....Even if the dollars are readily available?....and it doesn't block a prospect?...and you don't block a 1st round potential SS draft pick in 2014 or 2015?....and you don't cripple other team-building maneuvers?...and signing a legitimate big league SS might encourage another quality FA to consider signing next offseason?
    Premier talent? Justin Morneau was a third rounder. Koskie was a 26th rounder. In the second round, the Twins drafted Crain, Baker, Slowey, and Swarzak in successive years. Premier talent? Perhaps not. But neither is Drew.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  15. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.
    Maybe that's why the Red Sox refuse to give him more than a one-year deal.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  16. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    1) The Dodgers had such confidence in Nolasco, they skipped his start in the playoffs, and then signed a pretty "shaky" Dan Haren to take his place?
    Since when does one's track record of success boil down to a decision made about one game in one season? C'mon now.

    Drew is in his decline phase and IF Hardy is even evidence that it isn't a guarantee, it's the exception that proves the rule. Most SS's decline heavily, especially in their defense. And we have reason to be suspicious of his offense away from Fenway.

    No thanks.

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  18. #95
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    I don't trust this team to draft anything of quality unless they have a top two pick so I say go for it!

  19. #96
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    Ok here is the bottom line...we are building for the future....so where are the magic beans this year? Signing Diaz would be a step in the right direction and saves a #45 pick ...Why sign a guy who is older,costs a draft pick and is on the down side , for what we pay him for 3 years we could sign a younger guy to grow with the team and have him for 6 years instead of 3?

  20. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Why sign Pelfrey, when there are actual SP candidates, but not sign Drew, when there are no SS candidates? I am baffled by that.....

    I am more baffled why the Yanks have not signed him to play 2B.

    Stop using common sense , you dont know what they think they know , you know?

    Ifs and buts were candy and nuts we would all have diabeties by opening day

  21. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    If Bill James is to be taken as gospel, then the Twins signing of Drew at 2 yrs/$21M through age 32 (2015) makes a lot of sense.
    Drew turns 31 in March - through age 33.

  22. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    The average SS hit .697 OPS/94 OPS+, Florimon has managed to hit .601 OPS/67 OPS+ in his career with little indication that he can do any better than that. You don't find that the least bit embarrassing?

    Hardy is going to be making 8 figures with already-earned bonuses in 2014, and will be making much more into the 8 figure per anum range on his next contract. He's a career .740 OPS/96 OPS+ hitter versus Drew at .764 OPS/98 OPS+. That makes 2 yrs/$21M look not too bad for Drew.

    If that $10M was proven to be holding the Twins back from signing someone else, I'm all in, but someone who can play a decent SS and hit RHP at somewhere close to .800 OPS at a premium defensive position qualifies as a raker on this team. Nelson Cruz, by contrast, has a career .823 OPS as a part-time, oft-injured player who has averaged 125 games per year, and whose defense really qualifies him as a DH- and he'll be making a lot more than Drew.
    I'm really not embarrassed by Florimon at all. Sure I'd like him to hit better but he's a fantastic defensive shortstop and that's what he has to be. Not that I'm hopeful but under 600 AB's... He isn't set in stone as a hitter. No need to focus on that. He's a defensive guy.

    If Florimon was expected to lead this team at the plate... I'd be embarrassed. He's not so I'm not. Florimon batting ninth was not this teams 2013 problem and it won't be the 2014 problem.

    The problem was Brian Dozier leading the team in home runs on a team that was built to slug. The problem was Josh Willingham slugging .360 something and Plouffe slugging .390 something.

    If we don't have speed we need honest to goodness sluggers. Under that context... I was more embarrassed(not the right word) by Hammer and Plouffe.

    I'm not willing to believe that Drew will slug over .400 again or stay healthy or be a solid influence on a team that may struggle. We don't have consistent proof of that with Drew on any of those worries of mine. What we have is improvement offensively over Florimon and that's a low bar to clear and not worth 8 figures.

    On attitude... It's easy to feel good when your winning with Boston. How are you with a club that isn't and a 10 million plus multi year contract in your pocket. Arizona threw a red flag with me by shipping him out for nothing.

    If I'm spending 10 plus million... I'd rather spend 10 million on Nelson Cruz who consistently slugs over .500 to truly help this current team offensively. More bang for the buck.

    Yeah... I'd sneak him some roids as well.. Ok... No I wouldn't... But... Yeah I would.

    I wouldn't... I despise steroids and the dark cloud it produced and hung over the game I love. The last full sized sentence was a poor attempt at humor and in no way reflects my integrity and sense of Fair Play!!! Someone like Glunn would have no problem injecting an athlete playing for his favorite team but he is a lawyer and he knows legal tricks in order to keep that player eligible. Ashbury is also a urine expert and in combination with Glunn the issue becomes less of a concern.
    Last edited by Riverbrian; 02-19-2014 at 08:25 PM.
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  23. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Riverbrian View Post
    I'm really not embarrassed by Florimon at all. Sure I'd like him to hit better but he's a fantastic defensive shortstop and that's what he has to be. Not that I'm hopeful but under 600 AB's... He isn't set in stone as a hitter. No need to focus on that. He's a defensive guy.

    If Florimon was expected to lead this team at the plate... I'd be embarrassed. He's not so I'm not. Florimon batting ninth was not this teams 2013 problem and it won't be the 2014 problem.

    The problem was Brian Dozier leading the team in home runs on a team that was built to slug. The problem was Josh Willingham slugging .360 something and Plouffe slugging .390 something.

    If we don't have speed we need honest to goodness sluggers. Under that context... I was more embarrassed(not the right word) by Hammer and Plouffe.

    I'm not willing to believe that Drew will slug over .400 again or stay healthy or be a solid influence on a team that may struggle. We don't have consistent proof of that with Drew on any of those worries of mine. What we have us improvement offensively over Florimon and that's a low bar to clear and not worth 8 figures.

    On attitude... It's easy to feel good when your winning with Boston. How are you with a club that isn't and a 10 million plus multi year contract in your pocket. Arizona threw a red flag with me by shipping him out for nothing.

    If I'm spending 10 plus million... I'd rather spend 10 million on Nelson Cruz who consistently slugs over .500 to truly help this current team offensively. More bang for the buck.

    Yeah... I'd sneak him some roids as well.. Ok... No I wouldn't... But... Yeah I would.

    I wouldn't... I despise steroids and the dark cloud it produced and hung over the game I love. The last full sized sentence was a poor attempt at humor and in no way reflects my integrity and sense of Fair Play!!! Someone like Glunn would have no problem injecting an athlete playing for his favorite team but he is a lawyer and he knows legal tricks in order to keep that player eligible. Ashbury is also a urine expert and in combination with Glunn the issue becomes less of a concern.
    Drew was traded from Arizona in a salary dump, and because his future was in doubt as he was batting .193 while literally re-learning how to run. He's proven that he has fully recovered in 2013, actually getting stronger month-by-month as the season wore on.

    Nelson Cruz would help the team offensively- no question- but the same goes for Cruz, attitude, winning team.....and you're getting a one-dimensional player whose defensive ability qualifies him as a DH, and who gets hurt frequently, and may be suspended at any moment with his next urinie test- even with Glunn and Asbury's collaborative efforts.

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