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Thread: Mystery teams in on Drew

  1. #21
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    If no one is willing to give up a 2nd rounder for Drew right now I don't see us getting much in return if we decide to trade him later. I agree that SS is a major need but the draft pick is a better deal IMO. Maybe Santana will be ready for a try out the the end of this season and if he fails miserably we can get more desperate. Until then I am fine with trades and tryouts this year. The talent is coming and when things come together and we still have no short stop then I will be on the upgrade bandwagon. I am just not a believer in Drew like others on this board.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I wouldn't give him 14 mil a year, I would give him 2/22 or 3/30 in a heartbeat though.
    I would give him 3/24 or 3/27. If I am giving up a high draft pick I want more then two years

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.

    The Twins have the best farm system in baseball, and the worst major league product (sans Marlins, Cubs and Astros) in baseball. At some point you can sacrifice a single 2nd round pick in order to greatly improve your major league talent/roster. The Twins window is going to open very quickly with the arrival of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, etc etc over the next couple years, get players that can help now and in the near future instead of 2nd round guy who likely will never make the majors, or won't make it for several years.
    In 2 more years you will have to offer him a 17 million 1 year deal , and Me thinks he would accept it, Why cough up a top 45 pick and 20+ million when there are other posibilitys who dont cost a pick and who will be getting better when we are good, instead of trending down?

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    In 2 more years you will have to offer him a 17 million 1 year deal , and Me thinks he would accept it, Why cough up a top 45 pick and 20+ million when there are other posibilitys who dont cost a pick and who will be getting better when we are good, instead of trending down?
    Boras never takes the QO for his clients. MIs that bat left-handed and mash RHP are a rare commodity and protect Drew's potential value in the out-year of a contract, plus the added chance with Boras as his agent, to recoup that lost pick.

    If the "$20+M" would be spent on signing a certain impact International/Cuban SS, or another FA bat, acquiring a legitimate Lead-Off man, or Ervin Santana, I'd say re-direct your priorities in those directions over Drew, but the Twins at this point, seem destined to not spending that $20+M and simply go with what they have in camp right now, and then shed even more payroll as the season progresses.

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  6. #25
    He was the starting SS for a World Series champion team. That counts for something in my book. Florimon is a disaster at the plate. Why continue the charade with this guy? The batting order is currently worse than last years lineup. I'd throw big money at Drew for three years and hope Polanco or Goodrum can take over at that point. This organization has money coming out of their ears. They can afford to overpay (heaven forbid) a guy who will improve this pitiful offense and plug a gaping hole at SS for the next three years.

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  8. #26
    Absolutely not on Drew unless the asking price comes way down and it is a longer term deal, and we all know that is not Boras' style. If the price drops, it will be a 1 year deal. With the loss of the draft pick, in a deep draft, No Way! Not worth it and it is not gonna happen. Anyone who says it is a smart move is crazy!

  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I would give him 3/24 or 3/27. If I am giving up a high draft pick I want more then two years
    I would give him a 2 year deal and a team option for a third. Probably 2/18. I would not panic about a mystery team as that typically means you are bidding against yourself.

    Drew would be 3 win upgrade in each of the next two years. He is not an all star, but he is going to give you another 30 hits, 20 extra base hits, more RBI, more runs, and get on base more than Pedro. We have the money and we are not mortgaging our future.

    As far as the second round pick goes, since 1990 we have had 30 picks in the second round. I don't see a single guy that has made an all star team. Jacque was a solid player for a period of time. Baker was the only other guy that was at one point both productive and promising as a player. Obviously you have other guys that have been contributors like Swarzak and Crain. Exactly three of these players have had a career WAR above 5. 23 never really made it (more than 100 AB's).

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...ft_type=junreg
    Last edited by tobi0040; 02-19-2014 at 08:20 AM.

  10. #28
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    The old "mystery team" tactic. Been used many a time by this guy. He can even say the Twins talked to him, which I'm sure they did, in December.

    One thing I don't get is the insistence on a long-term deal. This guy is in his decline years. His value will only go down over the life of a long-term deal. Thinking you need a long-term deal to justify a draft pick is an example of the sunk cost fallacy. Insisting on a long-term deal is throwing good money after bad.

    If the Twins were in on him (which I highly doubt), the kind of deal I would be interested in is a one-year deal with an option, where you highly discount the contract price to compensate for the loss of a draft pick. Since Boras rarely discounts anything, I also highly doubt Boras would go for that. he'd rather have his client working out on his own and waiting for an injury before he caves at this stage.

    Between the Twins not wanting to do this and Boras not wanting a reasonable deal for a guy who projects as a 2 WAR player for a couple of years and then drops off the table, I give this 1 100 odds.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  12. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    If you signed him to a 1-2 year deal, you would likely get another 2nd round pick (or 50% chance at a 1st round pick) back at the end of that contract.
    Drew won't be getting a QO in two years (and he's looking for three), teams don't want to give up a pick for him now coming off of his least crappy season in three years. He's awful against lefties and he was awful away from Fenway last year.

    Also the CBA expires after the 2016 season I believe, it almost surely will be reworked as the current QO system isn't working. Who knows what it will look like then.

  13. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    The old "mystery team" tactic. Been used many a time by this guy. He can even say the Twins talked to him, which I'm sure they did, in December.

    One thing I don't get is the insistence on a long-term deal. This guy is in his decline years. His value will only go down over the life of a long-term deal. Thinking you need a long-term deal to justify a draft pick is an example of the sunk cost fallacy. Insisting on a long-term deal is throwing good money after bad.

    If the Twins were in on him (which I highly doubt), the kind of deal I would be interested in is a one-year deal with an option, where you highly discount the contract price to compensate for the loss of a draft pick. Since Boras rarely discounts anything, I also highly doubt Boras would go for that. he'd rather have his client working out on his own and waiting for an injury before he caves at this stage.

    Between the Twins not wanting to do this and Boras not wanting a reasonable deal for a guy who projects as a 2 WAR player for a couple of years and then drops off the table, I give this 1 100 odds.
    I would agree that unfortunately, there's no way the Twins are in the mix, but I would take issue on the alleged lack of mystery teams- notwithstanding the Boras factor. And a guy coming off of his first healthy year since 2010 (4.7 fWAR) and putting up a fWAR of 3.4 in 2013 seems to be underestimated in his projection values going forward in the immediate future. Drew is likely not going to experience the typical "shortstop drop-off" due to loss of athleticism- to wit, JJ Hardy came off of 2 years of suffering from injuries and since then has put up WARs of : 4.3/2.6/3.4 over the last 3 years, and he's a very similar style defensive player to Drew, ie, a style that relies more on positioning and consistency than pure athleticism.

    It's relatively easy to surmise that, given Drew's willingness to play anywhere, that a free-spending team like the Blue Jays, who have 2 protected picks, could get a huge upgrade with Drew at 2B, and would have great insurance for oft-injured Jose Reyes. The LA Dodgers have no limits on spending, and Drew would only have to beat out the likes of Chone Figgins or Brendan Harris for a spot? And again, provide good insurance should Hanley Ramirez go down once again.

  14. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Also the CBA expires after the 2016 season I believe, it almost surely will be reworked as the current QO system isn't working. Who knows what it will look like then.
    Agreed. I think the current QO system is going to be kicked to the curb in the next CBA. I was surprised that the Player's Union agreed to it in the first place. Sure, it fixed the reliever problem but given how few picks are handed out now, teams have become irrationally stingy with their picks. In the old system, sure, you'd lose a pick or two but chances were you'd get one back as well. It took the bite out of losing a high draft pick a bit.

  15. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    As far as the second round pick goes, since 1990 we have had 30 picks in the second round. I don't see a single guy that has made an all star team. Jacque was a solid player for a period of time. Baker was the only other guy that was at one point both productive and promising as a player. Obviously you have other guys that have been contributors like Swarzak and Crain. Exactly three of these players have had a career WAR above 5. 23 never really made it (more than 100 AB's).

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...ft_type=junreg
    Hey now; you're cutting our friend Slowey out of your count because he earned exactly 5.0 WAR (so far)? I'm not sure it's fair to say that 3 of 30 have been worth over 5 WAR (or that 23 never really made it) if you're including picks from the last few drafts. I'm not about to give up on Eades, Melotakis, or Goodrum quite yet. Besides that a few of those guys still have a shot to increase (or decrease) their career worth (e.g. Swarzak).

    As far as the three win improvement over Florimon - I see that in what I would call similarly above average years for both players in 2013, Drew was only +1 WAR above Florimon. I understand that Bbref WAR isn't the best measure of contribution, but if it's okay to use it to assess draft picks, wouldn't it also be okay to assess the potential upgrade of Drew over Florimon?

  16. #33
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    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew's 2013 numbers were inflated playing in Fenway and on a good team. What about before he came to Boston.

    Drew's 2012(Arizona and Oakland):

    327 AB .223 BA 7HR 28 RBI .657 OPS

    Drew's 2011(Arizona):

    354 AB .252 BA 5 HR 45 RBI .713 OPS

    Florimon's 2013

    403 AB .221 BA 9 HR 44 RBI .611 OPS


    An upgrade, yeah, sure, but not a huge one. Worth millions in salary and a good draft pick? Not for me, especially given what Florimon can do with the glove.

    I think Drew would put up numbers more like his 2011 and 2012 playing for the Twins than what he hit last season: no green monster to turn fly balls into extra base hits.

  17. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    I would agree that unfortunately, there's no way the Twins are in the mix, but I would take issue on the alleged lack of mystery teams- notwithstanding the Boras factor. And a guy coming off of his first healthy year since 2010 (4.7 fWAR) and putting up a fWAR of 3.4 in 2013 seems to be underestimated in his projection values going forward in the immediate future. Drew is likely not going to experience the typical "shortstop drop-off" due to loss of athleticism- to wit, JJ Hardy came off of 2 years of suffering from injuries and since then has put up WARs of : 4.3/2.6/3.4 over the last 3 years, and he's a very similar style defensive player to Drew, ie, a style that relies more on positioning and consistency than pure athleticism.

    It's relatively easy to surmise that, given Drew's willingness to play anywhere, that a free-spending team like the Blue Jays, who have 2 protected picks, could get a huge upgrade with Drew at 2B, and would have great insurance for oft-injured Jose Reyes. The LA Dodgers have no limits on spending, and Drew would only have to beat out the likes of Chone Figgins or Brendan Harris for a spot? And again, provide good insurance should Hanley Ramirez go down once again.
    Yeah, he makes great sense for a team that expects to contend this year and doesn't give a care about money. He makes little sense for a team trying to figure out whom it can rely upon when they have a reasonable chance to content, and which cares a great deal about money.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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  19. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Yeah, he makes great sense for a team that expects to contend this year and doesn't give a care about money. He makes little sense for a team trying to figure out whom it can rely upon when they have a reasonable chance to content, and which cares a great deal about money.
    I view it is either I get to watch a MLB short stop and see my favorite team win 3 more games, or the Pohlad's make another $9M this year. Payroll should be $112M at 52% of revenue and it is at $82M. We have tons of cheap rookies on the way (CF, LF, 3B, 2b, SP x 2) and a 2 year deal would not hamper future plans.

  20. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    I think Drew would put up numbers more like his 2011 and 2012 playing for the Twins than what he hit last season: no green monster to turn fly balls into extra base hits.
    Drew had a .777 OPS last year, which is close to his career .764.

    He was only in Boston for a short time. He had a wide 200 bps gap in OPS between home and road last year, but a pretty wide 75 basis point gap for his career (home .803 road .725). But even cherry picked bad years for Drew are superior to Florimon by a wide margin.

    I am suprised by how many people are okay with Florimon as our SS and an $82M payroll, given that we were 13th in the AL in runs last year and haven't spent a dime.

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  22. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised if Drew's 2013 numbers were inflated playing in Fenway and on a good team. What about before he came to Boston.

    Drew's 2012(Arizona and Oakland):

    327 AB .223 BA 7HR 28 RBI .657 OPS

    Drew's 2011(Arizona):

    354 AB .252 BA 5 HR 45 RBI .713 OPS

    Florimon's 2013

    403 AB .221 BA 9 HR 44 RBI .611 OPS


    An upgrade, yeah, sure, but not a huge one. Worth millions in salary and a good draft pick? Not for me, especially given what Florimon can do with the glove.

    I think Drew would put up numbers more like his 2011 and 2012 playing for the Twins than what he hit last season: no green monster to turn fly balls into extra base hits.
    2011 and 2012 Drew numbers are not really useful for comparison purposes, much like Hardy's injury-riddled year with the Twins and his last year with the Brewers. A better way to look at it, and most importantly, one that completely takes out the Fenway Effect, is to compare Drew's OPS+ number from 2010 in Arizona and 2013 in Boston-

    OPS+ of 113 in Arizona and 111 in Boston-------
    Florimon had an OPS+ of 70 in 2013- OUCH!.....
    League SS Average OPS+ was 91......


    Clearly, a healthy Hardy and a healthy Drew are a big upgrade over Florimon, who probably had his career year at the plate in 2013. I'm with USAFChief, Drew will still be playing long after Florimon plays himself out of the League.

    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post

    He was only in Boston for a short time. He had a wide 200 bps gap in OPS between home and road last year, but a pretty wide 75 basis point gap for his career (home .803 road .725). But even cherry picked bad years for Drew are superior to Florimon by a wide margin.

    I am suprised by how many people are okay with Florimon as our SS and an $82M payroll, given that we were 13th in the AL in runs last year and haven't spent a dime.
    A real head-scratcher why some are so resistant to this deal, for an obvious upgrade, that doesn't block any prospect, with plenty of payroll room to spare- and by the time they move Correia and Willingham, their net payroll will be well below $80M.
    Last edited by jokin; 02-20-2014 at 12:48 AM.

  23. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    But even cherry picked bad years for Drew are superior to Florimon by a wide margin.

    I am suprised by how many people are okay with Florimon as our SS and an $82M payroll, given that we were 13th in the AL in runs last year and haven't spent a dime.
    Not exactly cherry picked - just the 2 seasons prior to last season in Fenway.

    The question is whether last year was an aberration in a career trending downward, or a return to form.

    Either way, I don't see him as a long-term answer to any of the Twins' offensive woes.

  24. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    Not exactly cherry picked - just the 2 seasons prior to last season in Fenway.

    The question is whether last year was an aberration in a career trending downward, or a return to form.

    Either way, I don't see him as a long-term answer to any of the Twins' offensive woes.
    Again, 2 injury-riddled years for Drew, that still vastly outranked Florimon's 2013 numbers. Smith and Gardy also similarly thought that Hardy wasn't the long-term answer to the Twins' offensive woes, and then Hardy got healthy, and the rest is history.

  25. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Monkeypaws View Post
    Not exactly cherry picked - just the 2 seasons prior to last season in Fenway.

    The question is whether last year was an aberration in a career trending downward, or a return to form.

    Either way, I don't see him as a long-term answer to any of the Twins' offensive woes.
    The point is, even if he trends backward from here but starts at a .777 OPS, he has a long way to go to sniff Florimon's .610 OPS. Agree with Jokin 100%

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