02-18-2014, 09:27 AM #21
Boy, when you put it on paper like that - I'm pretty sure I'd take the under on 70. Man I hope Sano is ready from the start.
02-18-2014, 09:35 AM #22
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02-18-2014, 09:43 AM #23
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I was guessing that the depth in left-handed relievers and marginal starters they've been accumulating might play into an attempt to trade Diamond, Duensing or Thielbar to clear up the pitching situation a bit, with one of those guys traded and the other two in the bullpen. I'm hoping for Worley to take and run with the chance to win a rotation spot again.
02-18-2014, 09:57 AM #24
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I agree with others--the ceiling for this roster is about 75 wins.
I project that Chris Hermann (3rd C, 5th OF) takes one of your OF spots. I hope its Mastro or Pressley because they are basically 4th OF not starting CF. I hope the Twins give Parmalee a real shot this year--playing most games--some at RF some at DH. Play Arcia every day. If that means benching Willingham, so be it. I would also give some time in RF to Plouffe in anticipation of Sano arriving in May. That probably means Kubel doesn't make the team.
As to pitching--realizing this is all guesswork at this point--I pick Worley to have a comeback year and take the 5th starter role--with Diamond going to the pen to replace Theilbar.
02-18-2014, 09:59 AM #25
02-18-2014, 10:05 AM #26
I agreed that this is a 70-75 win roster at this time... and I think most have been saying that this is a transition year from the stop-gaps to the prospects. By July, the roster could be 40% different.
02-18-2014, 10:13 AM #27
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I guess I am still holding out a little hope they sign Drew. But I seriously doubt it will happen. I like Florimon but I just don't ever seeing him hit much more than last year.
02-18-2014, 10:29 AM #28
Bartlett hasn't played since like May of 2012 at all, so I don't know that he would be able to beat him out... I would think some Rochester time would be good to shake off some cobwebs. And, based on his play the last couple of years he did play, not sure I'd expect a whole lot more.
02-18-2014, 10:38 AM #29
I'd prefer Hicks in some capacity over the rest of the backups in the OF.
Also, hoping Worley makes good and grabs the 5 spot.
I wouldn't have a problem giving Pinto a little time in AAA.
02-18-2014, 10:51 AM #30
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jmlease1--to borrow a phrase. If Hicks ain't starting, he ain't departin' (north to Minnesota). It would be foolish to the max to take a guy coming off a disappointing year and deposit him on the bench. I think the sentiment is similar with Pinto. Both guys have much less than a half season at AAA and might benefit from some more minor league seasoning.
02-18-2014, 11:09 AM #31
Kurt Suzuki, Chris Herrmann
Joe Mauer, Chris Parmelee
Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar
Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar
Trevor Plouffe, Eduardo Escobar
Josh Willingham, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Alex Presley, Jason Kubel, Chris Herrmann
Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Diamond, (Deduno DL somehow)
Vance Worley (LR), Anthony Swarzak (MR), Caleb Thiebar, Michael Tonkin, Brian Duensing, Casey Fien, Glen Perkins
Fryer can't be. Please! Herrmann is a lefty so he has the advantage. Also, a roster with Suzuki, Fryer, and Herrmann (although I think Herrmann can be a .650+ OPS backup at 3 spots) makes for a bad bench (likely precluding either Kubel or Parmelee). Parmelee being able to play LF would be very important for him. He has to know this. A starting OF of Presley-Hicks-Arcia with Willingham DHing, and a bench of Kubel, Parmelee, Herrmann/Suzuki, and Escobar isn't bad. It isn't good, but at least the defensive liability of having Willingham and Arcia out there is reduced.
Mastro, Colabello, Bartlett, and Beresford are good fill-in options in AAA. Pinto can force his way up with Sano, injecting life into the lineup.
With the 5th spot in the rotation in doubt right now, I think seeing Gibson-Meyer-May at the top of the Rochester rotation (this time, the Twins can be smart about a prospect's AAA innings and limit Meyer there) would be good. Deduno would be my choice for the 5th spot, but barring any other injury, maybe they find one for him to see what can be done about Diamond/Worley. Worley makes more sense initially coming out of the bullpen.
Ryan Pressley gets sent to Rochester to work as a starter. Darnell and Gilmartin can be starters 5 and 6 there.
With that, the bullpen seems pretty clear-cut.
02-18-2014, 11:20 AM #32
And in September, it could/maybe should be:
Pinto, Herrmann, Suzuki
Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Herrmann, Plouffe, Kubel
Nolasco, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May
Diamond/Worley/Pressly, Ibarra, Watts, Achter, Thielbar, Tonkin, Perkins
Obviously I hope for a number of trades involving Willingham, Correia, Swarzak, Fien, Duensing, and perhaps even Escobar. And expecting Mike Pelfrey to Blackburn it up.
02-18-2014, 11:27 AM #33
And who knows about Rosario in LF or RF by that time too . . .
02-18-2014, 11:45 AM #34
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02-18-2014, 11:59 AM #35
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With Seth's projections the only righthanded bench options look to be Darin Mastroianni, Eduardo Escobar and Eric Fryer. I don't think that seems like a smart move. I think Pinto makes the team due to the lack of any reasonable RH bench bats.
02-18-2014, 12:07 PM #36
02-18-2014, 12:16 PM #37
02-18-2014, 01:11 PM #38
I am not clear on why this is a 70-win team. It already looks to be better than that given the significantly improved rotation and Mauer replacing Morneau plus Arcia developing better. Those are givens. Hicks, the 5th starter, any sort of bounceback from Willingham and Kubel, and any progress from Plouffe, Parmelee, and Florimon added into that and this would seem to be a mid-upper 70-win team.
02-18-2014, 01:12 PM #39
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I'm with Shane Wahl on Ryan Pressly--I thought I heard the Twins had interest in stretching him out into a starter. My guess is he doesn't make the team, and I'd lean toward Deduno getting his bullpen spot.
Suggestions that Deduno will start the year on the DL seem like wishful thinking to me.
02-18-2014, 01:31 PM #40
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The Twins didn't extend Gardenhire to not let him manage his way and incorporate his ideas. He will begin with 13 pitchers (and with the full blessing of Ryan!) because that's his way (Ryan's too!). Lots of options--just not very good options--but that's another thread. There will be 3 catchers (and don't include Mauer as one!)--because that's the way they (he) do things.
Instead of a huge competition for pitchers and jobs--there will be a mock competition. We already know four starters, a fifth? I'm guessing it will be a lot like 2004--four locks and a rotation of others for the fifth (spot) starts. That make keeping 13 pitchers appear to be a useful if not necessary. Leopards don't lose their spots, zebras their stripes, and the Twins Their Way of Doing Things. If change was desired--we would have seen it in the managerial positions. There wasn't any change there and we shouldn't expect any change in team philosophy. This season is "back to the veterans": the four locks in the rotation, the ex-Twins, and a sprinkling of veterans from other teams. The youth--stays in the minors. Until when you ask? Next year is my guess.