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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #1241
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    I don't get all the "hate" for Nick Gordon. There are some very reputable analysts/scouts that have him as a top 3 prospect. I look at the tools and if he develops to the projections, I see the potential ceiling of Barry Larkin and a floor of a healthy version of Rafael Furcal. The biggest difference is the hit tool and how much it develops.

    Shortstops that hit for power (Tulo, HanRam, ARod) are generational type players, but even then HanRam wasn't a very good defender at SS. Gordon looks to be the pre-ARod era SS (less Cal Ripken) and more like Larkin. This kid looks like a great player.

  2. #1242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    I don't get all the "hate" for Nick Gordon. There are some very reputable analysts/scouts that have him as a top 3 prospect. I look at the tools and if he develops to the projections, I see the potential ceiling of Barry Larkin and a floor of a healthy version of Rafael Furcal. The biggest difference is the hit tool and how much it develops.

    Shortstops that hit for power (Tulo, HanRam, ARod) are generational type players, but even then HanRam wasn't a very good defender at SS. Gordon looks to be the pre-ARod era SS (less Cal Ripken) and more like Larkin. This kid looks like a great player.
    Saying you think the guy has less upside than 5-6 others does not translate to hate.

    Barry Larkin has a career .295 BA and .815 OPS (9 silver sluggers) and won 3 gold gloves. I don't see anyone saying he is a gold glove SS. They say good instincts, strong arm, some even say above average. And nobody is saying .815 OPS or 400 career SB. If I thought this was attainable for Gordon I would be thrilled at #5.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 06-04-2014 at 12:20 PM.

  3. #1243
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Saying you think the guy has less upside than 5-6 others does not translate to hate.

    Barry Larkin has a career .295 BA and .815 OPS (9 silver sluggers) and won 3 gold gloves. I don't see anyone saying he is a gold glove SS. They say good instincts, strong arm, some even say above average. And nobody is saying .815 OPS or 400 career SB. If I thought this was attainable for Gordon I would be thrilled at #5.
    I think we all would be. He'd be going to the hall of fame. The real issue is that people see him more as a .730 OPS type guy with decent defense. That's still not bad (essentially Elvis Andrus), but at 5 overall, I'd much rather they get a guy who is more likely to be a perennial all star. I'm not sure Gordon is that guy. I won't cry if they draft Gordon, but part of me hopes that someone ahead of them grab him so that we don't have him there. I really want Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, Touki, or Kolek. All, to me, ,are fare more likely to be dominant... and given that this may be the last time in a while that they are picking this high, I hope they get a guy with a really high ceiling, even if it takes them 5 years to develop him.

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  5. #1244
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    I love how some of us follow the draft for months and have good conversations about prospects. Then a week beforenthe draft we have ppl come on and talk about Gordon's low floor and Nolas low floor. Yet, even us draft nuts are not scouts and I would venture to say that cmb and one other guy are remotely qualified tontalk about prospects. The pundits and scouts and periodicals have Nola and Gordon ranked in top 6 range. This to me means both would be good picks. We have to wait 4 years to see if Nola is a success and possibly 7 for Gordon. The book is still out on guys until they get about 1000 ab's. So we'll see I. 5 years if Gordon was a good pick or not.

    What I am trying to say is we are all ignorant (Socratic method).

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  7. #1245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    I don't get all the "hate" for Nick Gordon. There are some very reputable analysts/scouts that have him as a top 3 prospect. I look at the tools and if he develops to the projections, I see the potential ceiling of Barry Larkin and a floor of a healthy version of Rafael Furcal. The biggest difference is the hit tool and how much it develops.

    Shortstops that hit for power (Tulo, HanRam, ARod) are generational type players, but even then HanRam wasn't a very good defender at SS. Gordon looks to be the pre-ARod era SS (less Cal Ripken) and more like Larkin. This kid looks like a great player.
    "Hate"? Ok, he's your favorite--but that's really incendiary because other raise legitimate questions concerning Gordon. At 5th overall, teams need to look for big impact players--foundation stones of a rebuilding franchise. Does Gordon qualify as one?

    Consider that some tools are more valuable to a team than others The "hit" tool, the "power-hitting" tool, and the "starting pitching" tool are more valuble than the fielding tool. Many American-born teen-age SS just can't stay at SS because the either get too big, or they never really had the skill-set in the first place. These guys were SS's because they were the best player on their team(s) since 8 years-old. Can Gordon transistion to a new position? Is Gordon's lofty ranking based on him being a SS (as I think) or, is it as a position-player/hitter (in general) and his skills and value as a player remain unchanged at a different position? If he is SS or else--then it is way too risky for 5th overall given the Twins minor league stable of position players--unless Gordon is a premium hitter. There in lies the quandary (and the discussion)--but it's not hate.

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  9. #1246
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I love how some of us follow the draft for months and have good conversations about prospects. Then a week beforenthe draft we have ppl come on and talk about Gordon's low floor and Nolas low floor. Yet, even us draft nuts are not scouts and I would venture to say that cmb and one other guy are remotely qualified tontalk about prospects. The pundits and scouts and periodicals have Nola and Gordon ranked in top 6 range. This to me means both would be good picks. We have to wait 4 years to see if Nola is a success and possibly 7 for Gordon. The book is still out on guys until they get about 1000 ab's. So we'll see I. 5 years if Gordon was a good pick or not.

    What I am trying to say is we are all ignorant (Socratic method).
    I would argue that what is being said about Nola and Gordon here is similar to what scouts say. Most scouts have the ceiling of Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, and Kolek higher. The pitchers all have front line starter ceilings and Jackson 30+ HR ceiling. The most consistent reports about Nola is that he has very good control and a plus fastball and his other pitches need work. He is 21. Gordon looks like, athletic, hit tool may develop, will stay at short. Very strong arm. But nobody is saying perennial all star, gold glove, silver slugger, etc.

    The other pitchers, Newcomb and Touki...if you look at their stuff alone look like potential #1 or #2 starters. Albeit less of a chance to be in the big's as Nola.

    I completely agree we won't know for 5 years.

  10. #1247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    The risk for pitchers has to be accepted because a so very few position players have transitioned to starting pitchers and succeeded at the major league level. The restriction on SS has been raised because 2B is no longer a fall-back position for a "failed" SS, and the 5th OA draft slot is so valuable. Teams typically target a guy who is projected to be a top hittero starting pitcher. Gordon is neither of those--his projection was a solid fielding SS who "hits well for a SS". Hence my question (which didn't receive a response)--is Gordon viable at 3B? Both as a fielder and as a hitter? If so, then he can be drafted 1-5. But if not, then pass on him.
    What?

  11. #1248
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I think we all would be. He'd be going to the hall of fame. The real issue is that people see him more as a .730 OPS type guy with decent defense. That's still not bad (essentially Elvis Andrus), but at 5 overall, I'd much rather they get a guy who is more likely to be a perennial all star. I'm not sure Gordon is that guy. I won't cry if they draft Gordon, but part of me hopes that someone ahead of them grab him so that we don't have him there. I really want Aiken, Rodon, Jackson, Touki, or Kolek. All, to me, ,are fare more likely to be dominant... and given that this may be the last time in a while that they are picking this high, I hope they get a guy with a really high ceiling, even if it takes them 5 years to develop him.
    Peoples expectations at SS are clearly too high if a .730 OPS is mediocre. Andrus has a .685 OPS. The 5th best qualified SS in baseball last year had a .738 OPS. The overall MLB average was a .680 OPS. If Gordon was merely a .730 OPS guy then he would be an occasional all star. Strangely that's exactly what you want.

    Personally I have his ceiling in the .290/.350/.440/.790 range. That is an almost every year all star.

  12. #1249
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    New "final" draft boards from Crawford and Law.

    Law:
    1. Aiken
    2. Rodon
    3. Kolek4. Gordon
    5. Jackson

    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft...-Law-Big-Board

    Crawford:
    1. Aiken
    2. Rodon
    3. Gordon
    4. Kolek
    5. Jackson

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/06/t...y-final-board/

  13. #1250
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    Huh, so people don't universally have 5-10 players above Gordon. Weird.
    Lighten up Francis....

  14. #1251
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    Tried to watch teh Crawford chat, but "unfortunately this chat has reached capacity".....
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #1252
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    OK, we are parsing words. Polanco was supposed to be a lock to stick at SS. We have moved several guys off SS, some were more of a surprise than others. Another example would be Levi, I am guessing we thought he had a good chance to stick at SS or we would not have taken him in the first round.

    It does happen elsewhere too, it just seems like this organization moves them off more conistently.
    I have no idea why you continue to compare Gordon versus terrible comparables. You can't say that player X, Y and Z didn't stick so neither can player G. There were doubts that Michael could stay at SS on draft day. They thought he might stay at SS but most thought he was destined for 2B. As far as Polanco there is a singular reason that he isn't likely to stick and it's is his arm strength. This is not an issue for Gordon and scouts have expressed almost no doubts that he can stay at SS.

    If you want to make an argument against Gordon then it needs to be based on something else instead lowering his status because of defensive concerns. In fact you should almost be giving extra points just because he is almost a lock to stick at SS since you have been so good at pointing out how many SS prospects have to move.

    I have him behind Alex Jackson and the 3 big arms. I could also be talked into a lottery pick like Touki or a guy like Newcomb among others.

    http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/6/6/...2011-mlb-draft

  16. #1253
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    While many on here want Jackson more than Gordon, both Law and Crawford have Gordon higher. Also interesting.

    I don't claim to be in on things until maybe a month before the draft, but I've preferred Gordon for awhile. Just a feeling.
    Last edited by InfraRen; 06-04-2014 at 02:31 PM.
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  18. #1254
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    Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson
    #MNTwins VP Mike Radcliff: "We don't have any absolutes in the top-4." Has a feel on how it'll go, but there's still uncertainty w/ Astros.

    Also:

    Andrew Renschen @InfraRen
    @DarrenWolfson any clarity on what they'd do if Jackson AND Gordon are there at 5?

    Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson


    @InfraRen He wouldn't tip his hand that much. Was told Boras is a non-factor, but that can change. He also gushed about Gordon more so.

    Radcliff definitely gushed about Buxton 2 years ago...
    Last edited by InfraRen; 06-04-2014 at 02:42 PM.
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  19. #1255
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    My final thoughts on Gordon.

    He is universally thought of as a top 5 talent with BA being the only credible site I have seen him ranked out of the top 5 (6th). He is also universally thought to be a true SS. We are talking about ZERO experts have suggested he will move off the position. ZERO! Do readers know how rare it is? Recent top SS prospects Machado, Baez, Correa, Seager, Crawford, and Russell all had (some still do) questions about their chances to stick at SS to some degree. The only recent top SS prospect I can remember with zero concerns about sticking at the position is Lindor.

    As for Gordon's defensive tools let's look at those. First, what are important tools for a SS defensively?

    - Arm strength
    - Quick feet
    - Range
    - Hands
    - Instincts

    Gordon has the best infield arm in the draft grading out from plus to plus-plus. He has plus speed with quick feet that leads to plus range. Hands and instincts are hard to measure but all accounts have them at plus to plus-plus. When we add all these together with his reported premium work ethic/character I don't see anything but a plus defender.

    What about early reports that had him as "only" an above average defender? First thing you have to do when looking up scouting reports is check the date vs updated information. A lot of things can change in a week in the draft much less several months. Several months ago Rodon was the next David Price and undisputed #1 pick, Aiken was only the best HS lefty while most now have him as the #1 draft prospect, Nola was seen as a guy who had a 50/50 chance to end up in the pen because of size/delivery, and the best college bat was Turner. A lot can change!

    What about the several Twins players who have moved off SS? Two were 16 year old international signings (don't believe either were top 20 international prospects their years), 1 was a 1st rounder (30th overall), one a 2nd rounder, one an 8th rounder, and none a top 5 pick. While they all have their strengths none have the complete package or pedigree that Gordon brings. Especially on the defensive side. Not all SS prospects are created equal.

    I find it funny that I have become a Gordon apologists when I actually have 4 players ranked ahead of him on my personal board. There are plenty of players with higher ceilings than Gordon but he is far from the weak hitting/average defensive SS people around here make him out to be.
    Last edited by cmb0252; 06-04-2014 at 02:57 PM.

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  21. #1256
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I have no idea why you continue to compare Gordon versus terrible comparables. You can't say that player X, Y and Z didn't stick so neither can player G. There were doubts that Michael could stay at SS on draft day. They thought he might stay at SS but most thought he was destined for 2B. As far as Polanco there is a singular reason that he isn't likely to stick and it's is his arm strength. This is not an issue for Gordon and scouts have expressed almost no doubts that he can stay at SS.

    If you want to make an argument against Gordon then it needs to be based on something else instead lowering his status because of defensive concerns. In fact you should almost be giving extra points just because he is almost a lock to stick at SS since you have been so good at pointing out how many SS prospects have to move.

    I have him behind Alex Jackson and the 3 big arms. I could also be talked into a lottery pick like Touki or a guy like Newcomb among others.

    http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/6/6/...2011-mlb-draft
    First, we should be able to disagree without you telling me what I need to do.

    I never compared Polanco to Gordon specifically. I painted a picture of a franchise that has moved off 7-8 guys from SS in the last 6-7 years, a trend I think is a little excessive in this organization compared to others around the league. I brought up Polanco because he was supposed to be a great defensive SS, but then we discovered his arm was not strong enough. I have also seen someone like Joe Mauer grow 4 inches and put on at least 40 pounds after his 18th birthday. So I don't know that anyone is every a lock to not fill out or grow.

    At the end of the day that was not my major reason for not wanting Gordon at #5 anyway. I think his ceiling is not as high as other players that will be availalble. Nobody is saying he will be a .300 hitter, a power hitter, or a gold glove SS. So I don't see the upside that some of the others have.

  22. #1257
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Huh, so people don't universally have 5-10 players above Gordon. Weird.
    I couldn't get in either. Heck, I still can't get in!

  23. #1258
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    Jim Callis twitted the odds of Kolek fall to the Twins at 5 are better than you think.... which makes Jim Callis an impressive mind reader.
    Last edited by maxisagod; 06-04-2014 at 02:53 PM.

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  25. #1259
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    My final thoughts on Gordon.

    He is universally thought of as a top 5 talent with BA being the only credible site I have seen him ranked out of the top 5 (6th). He is also universally thought to be a true SS. We are talking about ZERO experts have suggested he will move off the position. ZERO! Do readers know how rare it is? Recent top SS prospects Machado, Baez, Correa, Seager, Crawford, and Russell all had (some still do) questions about their chances to stick at SS to some degree. The only recent top SS prospect I can remember with zero concerns about sticking at the position is Lindor.

    As for Gordon's defensive tools let's look at those. First, what are important tools for a SS defensively?

    - Arm strength
    - Quick feet
    - Range
    - Hands
    - Instincts

    Gordon has the best infield arm in the draft grading out from plus to plus-plus. He has plus speed with quick feet that leads to plus range. Hands and instincts are hard to measure but all accounts have them at plus to plus-plus. When we add all these together with his reported premium work ethic/character I don't see anything but a plus defender.

    What about early reports that had him as "only" an above average defender? First thing you have to do when looking up scouting reports is check the date vs updated information. A lot of things can change in a week in the draft much less several months. Several months ago Rodon was the next David Price and undisputed #1 pick, Aiken was only the best HS lefty while most now have him as the #1 draft prospect, Nola was seen as a guy who had a 50/50 chance to end up in the pen because of size/delivery, and the best college bat was Turner. A lot can change!

    What about the several Twins players who have moved off SS? Two were 16 year old international signings (don't believe either were top 20 international prospects their years), 1 was a 1st rounder (30th overall), one an 4th rounder, one an 8th rounder, and none a top 5 pick. While they all have their strengths none have the complete package or pedigree that Gordon brings. Especially on the defensive side. Not all SS prospects are created equal.

    I find it funny that I have become a Gordon apologists when I actually have 4 players ranked ahead of him on my personal board. There are plenty of players with higher ceilings than Gordon but he is far from the weak hitting/average defensive SS people around here make him out to be.
    Add Goodrum into the hopper, a second round pick that won't hack it at SS.

  26. #1260
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    Don't know if this got posted yesterday :

    http://sbb.scout.com/story/1408495-t...ft-board?s=381

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