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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #921
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    Are they finding good pitchers? Taking college RP that are injured, how has that worked? Are any SP prospects they've drafted looking really, really good above A+ yet (other than Gibson)? I actually don't know the answers.....
    Lighten up Francis....

  2. #922
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    The Twins might win more games, but they won't win more games in the post season picking noodle armed control pitchers. Johnson is doing it correctly. Maybe their not as good at identifying power arms that can translate to the MLB level (no mabye about it really) but that doesn't mean it's any less of an mandate for a champion.

    And as much as I like Brad Radke, he was nowhere near the talent that Josh Beckett was when he was anchoring World Series rotations. I don't care about Doug Fister's nice little career, I wouldn't draft him at #5, nor would I Wade Miley, Brad Radke, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey or 2008 Nick Blackburn. Even the Twins can afford to get those guys on the free agent market. Sure they can be part of a World Series rotation under the right circumstances, but under what circumstance could they or should they start game 1? Or game 2?

    This high floor/low ceiling stuff is BS. Guys with a low ceiling will ALSO have a low floor. If you're not able to miss bats, you have a much smaller margin for error. You can't rely on you'r defense for 80% of your outs, it's uneconomical. Why would you want to anyway?

    The Twins don't need to find guys who can throw a good 200 innings. They need to find good pitchers. Pitching 200 innings is a byproduct of good pitching. Good pitching isn't a byproduct of pitching 200 innings. Most of the guys who are able to manage strong strikeout numbers ARE among the league leaders in innings.

    It is accurate the Twins need guys who can miss bats. If they have trouble finding the ones who can also hit the strikezone, that's on their scouting or player development. 29 other teams don't have a problem in this area.
    29 other teams have tons of problems creating rotations, just like the Twins. From 02-10, the Twins pitching staff was always in the top half of the league and usually in the top 5.

    "The Twins might win more games, but they won't win more games in the post season picking noodle armed control pitchers." That isn't accurate. Most of the Twins postseason losses were b/c of crapping hitting, not pitching.

    02 - first round, Twins pitchers outpitched the A's big three. And against the Angels, Radke, Mays and Milton had a 2.07 era in 26ip and the bullpen and Rick Reed were crushed. Offense takes some games off.
    03 - Twins lose two games 3-1 and 4-1 (bullpen loss) and Santana gets crushed in the 8-1 loss.
    04 - Twins lose two extra innings games. Santana and offense showed up.
    06 - 3.81 postseason era. Team doesn't win a game. No offense except for White and Morneau.
    09 - Blackburn and Pavano pitch well, Liriano, Nathan and Duensing, not so much.
    10 - No one pitches well, no one hits well.

    I don't really have a response to the idea that you'd take a markedly worse pitcher (Beckett) over a better one (Radke) based on 7 postseason starts. If Radke had pitched in Boston, they'd have done just fine. And no one is arguing the Twins should take Wade Miley #5 - all those pitchers were being discussed in the areas they were drafted: late first round or later.

    The position I've been saying is that a guy like Nola (or Freeland) who profile as #2 pitchers according to the links I've posted, would be fine picks at #5.

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  4. #923
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Are they finding good pitchers? Taking college RP that are injured, how has that worked? Are any SP prospects they've drafted looking really, really good above A+ yet (other than Gibson)? I actually don't know the answers.....
    Logan Darnell, a 6th round pick, has looked good at AAA and made a cup of coffee in the majors. That said, he almost oozes "Twins Type" pitcher. Other than that, no. A few relief pitchers have probably advanced beyond A+ but we're pretty strong in relief arms.

    I thought the idea of grabbing a college arm and giving them a chance to start made some sense in a weak draft. But the mlb draft if tough - getting two major leaguers out of a draft is a good draft so the idea of trying to get creative with later round picks had some appeal. They had some success over the years in focusing on control types in later rounds and got some real value out of it. Maybe unused college arms might work. Worth a shot but it didn't work.

  5. #924
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Logan Darnell, a 6th round pick, has looked good at AAA and made a cup of coffee in the majors. That said, he almost oozes "Twins Type" pitcher. Other than that, no.
    He's got a K/9 greater than 9 right now in AAA. That's not a Twins type pitcher... Perhaps he's another Johan Pino type guy, but I think he's got a decent major league future.

  6. #925
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    Darnell, good name.
    Lighten up Francis....

  7. #926
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    Are we saying Nola is a 6 k per 9 guy? He most def is not. He has been the best pitcher in college last two years...including Rodon, and he throws mid 90s heat...with sink. The idea that he is anything like Wimmers is laughable. He plays in the SEC against tough A ball competition. Just because he is a quick to to the bigs guy doesnt make him a slouch. Someone said his name with KC...he has no comparison other than being linked to twins. Heck the guy is being linked to the Cubs at number 4. I for one, would rather have him than Jackson. Corner outfielders are a dime a dozen...I dont want sano jr when i could have radke II.

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  9. #927
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Are they finding good pitchers? Taking college RP that are injured, how has that worked? Are any SP prospects they've drafted looking really, really good above A+ yet (other than Gibson)? I actually don't know the answers.....
    Darnell, Taylor Rogers, and maybe DJ Baxendale are the only starters above A ball that are considered to be decent prospects. Keep in mind that drafted assets were swapped for Meyer and May. There are a number of prospective relievers above A ball with a chance, led by Tonkin.

    But, to answer the question, absolutely they are finding (and drafting) good pitchers! Restricting the answer to AA and AAA will perhaps rather conveniently cloud the answer, because one eliminates close to two dozen (!!) high-ceiling pitchers that are keys to an accurate answer to the question. Stewart, Berrios, Thorpe, Gonsalves, Romero, Jorge, Eades, Slegers, Lee, Duffey, Landa, Jones, and even Wimmers...that's a dozen, and it's an enviable collection. We can name another dozen relievers, guys like Melotakis, Zach Jones, Gilbert, Boer...and they haven't given up on Bard and Chargois, those college RP's they selected apparently because they were looking for injured college RP's at the time.

  10. #928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    Are we saying Nola is a 6 k per 9 guy? He most def is not. He has been the best pitcher in college last two years...including Rodon, and he throws mid 90s heat...with sink. The idea that he is anything like Wimmers is laughable. He plays in the SEC against tough A ball competition. Just because he is a quick to to the bigs guy doesnt make him a slouch. Someone said his name with KC...he has no comparison other than being linked to twins. Heck the guy is being linked to the Cubs at number 4. I for one, would rather have him than Jackson. Corner outfielders are a dime a dozen...I dont want sano jr when i could have radke II.
    Personally, I'm note a huge fan of using college stats to judge prospects. While you like to see players dominate piers it definitely isn't an end all be all. Wimmers had a 11 k/9 in college but no one ever expected him to strike out that many guys in the bigs. No, Wimmers isn't the prospect Nola is. Nola has significantly better overall stuff. Nola does have some flaws though.

    He throws from a low-three quarters arm slot which you rarely see in the bigs. He does repeat his delivery well though.He is also undersized at 6'1 which is or isn't a big deal depending on who you talk to. Most importantly to me is he doesn't have a true 70 grade pitch. I just see a solid number three pitcher when I look at Nola.

  11. #929
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    He throws from a low-three quarters arm slot which you rarely see in the bigs. He does repeat his delivery well though.He is also undersized at 6'1 which is or isn't a big deal depending on who you talk to. Most importantly to me is he doesn't have a true 70 grade pitch. I just see a solid number three pitcher when I look at Nola.
    Looking at the few sites that give grades to pitchers, there aren't that many 70s out there. mlbpipeline, which is Callis and Mayo and they are really good at this prospecting thing, gave Nola two plus pitches (60 grade) as well as plus command. That's a #2 pitcher. They didn't give Aiken (their #1) any 70s. Behind Nola, the only 70s I saw were Holmes and Touki's fastballs.

    I admit that I am bigger on command/control than most. Beede scares me b/c I think he can be another Hunt. Nola/Freeland both have issues, they aren't in the top tier of pitchers in this draft but it's only three deep and none will fall. I can make reasonable arguments for about 6 guys to go at #5. I guess I just don't like the Nola as Wimmers ideas being floated out there. He's #5 on Callis' list. He's legitimately in the BPA conversation and seems to be getting short stick around here.

  12. #930
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    We will never know what kind of pitcher Alex Wimmers would have been if he had not come down with Steve Blass disease and had TJS and at least one other surgery.

    And I don't think it's fair to mention Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Taijuan Walker without mentioning Karsten Whitson (1-9). Let us see how they pan out first. And remember if two of them do click you have beaten the odds.

  13. #931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    We will never know what kind of pitcher Alex Wimmers would have been if he had not come down with Steve Blass disease and had TJS and at least one other surgery.

    And I don't think it's fair to mention Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Taijuan Walker without mentioning Karsten Whitson (1-9). Let us see how they pan out first. And remember if two of them do click you have beaten the odds.
    Plus those guys were taken in the pre-strict slot restriction days. Those stories are everywhere as kids would demand super high bonuses and then receive them in above slot deals. The twins...for whatever reason...were not signing over slot deals in 2000s.

  14. #932
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    Remember my friends, the hindsight is often keener than the foresight.

  15. #933
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Christopher Crawford released a new mock draft last night. Like a lot of the recent mocks that have popped up he has the Twins taking Gordon. He gave Gordon a 50% chance to be taken by the Twins, Jackson a 35% chance, and Nola a 15% chance. Here is a link to the mock:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/t...tages-edition/

    Crawford isn't done. Him and Law released an ESPN insider article today on the best tools in the class. Here are a few players who made the list that have been linked to the Twins:

    Nola had the best college change up with Weaver being considered.
    Potential second round pick Mac Marshall was considered for the best HS change up.
    Jackson had the best hit tool with Gordon being considered.
    Jackson was the runner up for best power after Gatewood for a HS hitter.
    Gordon was considered for best HS throwing arm.
    Perhaps this needs highlighting for those that think Gordon's hit tool is subpar. He's not going to be tulo with the bat but he also isn't going to Elvis Andrus, Everth Cabrera or Alcides Escobar. And the defensive reports continue to get better.

  16. #934
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    Plus those guys were taken in the pre-strict slot restriction days. Those stories are everywhere as kids would demand super high bonuses and then receive them in above slot deals. The twins...for whatever reason...were not signing over slot deals in 2000s.
    Detroit took Verlander and Porcello over slot during this time period. And also Andrew Miller, who was a key to the Cabrera trade.

    We really showed them.

  17. #935
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Detroit took Verlander and Porcello over slot during this time period. And also Andrew Miller, who was a key to the Cabrera trade.

    We really showed them.
    What are you talking about...Verlander was a number 2 overall pick. Andrew Miller was top 10. Rick Porcello was drafted one pick before Twins. So, in conclusion to your bizarre and asinine comment, you named 3 guys the Tigers took ahead of the Twins who also signed mammoth contracts.

    The conversation was about guys being drafted in later rounds that everyone passed on multiple times or at least once. For every overslot deal teams hit on, there are multiples more that teams dont hit on. The draft is a crapshoot, just like going overslot is a crapshoot. Nothing is guaranteed.

  18. #936
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    What are you talking about...Verlander was a number 2 overall pick. Andrew Miller was top 10. Rick Porcello was drafted one pick before Twins. So, in conclusion to your bizarre and asinine comment, you named 3 guys the Tigers took ahead of the Twins who also signed mammoth contracts.

    The conversation was about guys being drafted in later rounds that everyone passed on multiple times or at least once. For every overslot deal teams hit on, there are multiples more that teams dont hit on. The draft is a crapshoot, just like going overslot is a crapshoot. Nothing is guaranteed.
    The overslot picks had a higher chance of success than slot picks and it only cost money. For years all of the small market teams were cheap. Teams like the Pirates and Royals frequently went underslot on their top picks but suddenly something clicked for some of the small market teams and they started pumping big money into the draft and built up strong farm systems. The Twins were one of the last teams to realize this in the draft and the international market.

  19. #937
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  20. #938
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I don't really have a response to the idea that you'd take a markedly worse pitcher (Beckett) over a better one (Radke) based on 7 postseason starts. If Radke had pitched in Boston, they'd have done just fine.
    I think both of you have some good points, but this stuck out to me as well. Aside from Beckett's having pitched two more years, Brad Radke was clearly the better pitcher, with the better results, and with startling consistency. He was well above average year in and year out, whereas Beckett seems to take some years off of the whole being a good pitcher thing.

  21. #939
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    Quote Originally Posted by 70charger View Post
    I think both of you have some good points, but this stuck out to me as well. Aside from Beckett's having pitched two more years, Brad Radke was clearly the better pitcher, with the better results, and with startling consistency. He was well above average year in and year out, whereas Beckett seems to take some years off of the whole being a good pitcher thing.
    Radke - 4.22 career ERA
    Beckett - 3.91 career ERA

    I don't understand how Radke was clearly the better pitcher with better results. More consistent - yes but not better. In addition when Beckett was on he was an ace.

  22. #940
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    I looked at career ERA+, probably a better stat. Radke leads, 113 to 111.

    And yes, Beckett has had some time looking like ace, but Radke never looked like Kevin Correia. Beckett has had years like that. He's had multiple years where he's actually been a detriment to his team, and I don't think you'll find that in Radke's record.

    Maybe I'm biased, but I think Radke was criminally underrated.

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