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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #881
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Very true, neither pitcher has had the same luster they had pre-injury. However in fairness, Wimmers was looking disappointing well before he got hurt and Gibson never had the swing and miss ability we were hoping for before or after surgery.
    Kyle Gibson's career minor league K/9 is 8.02. He was at 7.7 last year when he got called up. I realize that's going to transition downard a bit when he's promoted, but a K/9 of 7 is still a pretty good pitcher.

    I think the question we should be having right now is why is it so low?

  2. #882
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    Apparently today is mock draft day. Here is one from kiley McDaniel :

    http://sbb.scout.com/2/1403161.html
    Last edited by cmb0252; 05-16-2014 at 02:27 PM.

  3. #883
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Kyle Gibson's career minor league K/9 is 8.02. He was at 7.7 last year when he got called up. I realize that's going to transition downard a bit when he's promoted, but a K/9 of 7 is still a pretty good pitcher.

    I think the question we should be having right now is why is it so low?
    Nearly every minor league pitcher who makes an extended stay in the majors manages a K/9 of 7.

    Gibson clearly lost most of his helium when he got hurt, but it was already dipping a bit when people started saying his ceiling was a #3 because he didn't have an out pitch and wouldn't miss enough bats.

  4. #884
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Kyle Gibson's career minor league K/9 is 8.02. He was at 7.7 last year when he got called up. I realize that's going to transition downard a bit when he's promoted, but a K/9 of 7 is still a pretty good pitcher.

    I think the question we should be having right now is why is it so low?
    Gibson seems like a totally different pitcher up here. 5.1 K per 9 last years and 4.0 this year.

  5. #885
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Apparently today is mock draft day. Here is one from Miley McDaniel :

    http://sbb.scout.com/2/1403161.html
    I guess we will know in a few weeks, but I don't see Theo taking Nola. Nor do I see the best bat (Jackson) going 10th.

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  7. #886
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    3 credible mocks and three choices of Gordon for the Twins. Rodon at #1, Aiken at #3, and Gordon at #5 are pretty much the only picks all three agree on. Cubs seem to be the biggest wild card.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    3 credible mocks and three choices of Gordon for the Twins. Rodon at #1, Aiken at #3, and Gordon at #5 are pretty much the only picks all three agree on. Cubs seem to be the biggest wild card.
    Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

    http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/pros...x.jsp?c_id=chc

  9. #888
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

    http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/pros...x.jsp?c_id=chc
    An arm definitely seems to be the best fit but last year they took Bryant over Gray because they had him higher on their board. Honestly even if they take Gordon I would be pretty happy with Jackson. Heck, out of the names they have been linked to I would be happy with any of them that aren't Nola.

  10. #889
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

    http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/pros...x.jsp?c_id=chc
    They also have Baez who is SS right now. Even if he profiles as a 3b, the cubs really CANT take a middle infielder. I know you take bpa in the draft, but geez some pitching in that system is a must.

    As far as twins go. I have been hoping that Nola is not the selection, but what if he is this years Wacha. Kolek effing scares me but also excites me. Gordon is sexy pick now and sounds like he is linked to twins. If jackson can hit i like him and would keep him at catcher. I am much more excited this year as all these guys in top 10 seem good and last year number 4 seemed far away from 3.

  11. #890
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    As far as twins go. I have been hoping that Nola is not the selection, but what if he is this years Wacha.
    I'd feel better about that if the Twins had a track record of helping guys increase velocity and showing guys how to miss bats. Instead, well, there's quite a track record of the exact opposite.

  12. #891
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I'd feel better about that if the Twins had a track record of helping guys increase velocity and showing guys how to miss bats. Instead, well, there's quite a track record of the exact opposite.
    Not only did Wacha's fastball get a bump in velocity but his best pitch when drafted, a 65 change up, according to Law is now an easy 70-80 pitch depending on the day. Unless Nola develops a 70+ pitch he won't be close to Wacha.

  13. #892
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    Some great discussion going on here, love getting the updates each night from this thread. Can definitely tell there is lots of research, watching games if possible, and the like going on.

    And just so we don't confuse Kevin Correia, Jeff Hoffman, and Aaron Nola. Here's their college stats below.


    Sure, these are college stats, but is there really any comparison that says Pitcher #3 is nothing like the other two in terms of walks, hits, strikeouts, less wild pitches, etc etc etc etc. Innings per start. Two guys were in the 5-6 IP per start, the other guy was 7-8 IP per start.

    Then if I told you Pitcher #3 played in against the best competition, what would you say?

    I will say as I've said before I've never liked Hoffman. He doesn't miss bats for the 'stuff' he supposedly has. He's not 18 anymore, he's 21 now, 22 in January and 23 before he even throws a baseball again. Most 1st and 2nd RD college pitchers need 2-3 season in the minors to make the pros. That means he's 25-26 (Kyle Gibson age) before he does well...whatever is left of him after TJ.

    And he isn't a guy who misses bats in college, why will professional hitters do worse? The only reason he gets any strikeouts now is lack of discipline from college hitters.

    I've watched Nola a few times and while I don't think Greg Maddux, he works ahead in counts, and you know he's one step ahead of the hitters. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. Hoffman is a thrower. Correia, I have no idea what he is. BP instructor? "Here, hit this..."

    Some excellent points on Wacha and Rodriguez in that article. I do think MLB guys can 'tweak' something and add 1-2 MPH to a pitcher.

    You can't predict Tommy John, yet. As they start to gain stats on if the pitchers were "one sport" athletes and if possible gain their high school stats and then have 1000's of data points to start to show a path of early use that leads to TJ - then so be it. But otherwise, it's still a bit of a crapshoot. Why hasn't Tim Lincecum had TJ 4 times yet? We will never know. He pitched like Rodon in college. Tons of innings.

    Also, again, my 2 cents, I don't think Hoffman should be discussed before Tyler Beede. Played against better competition, more strikeouts, just needs command. Granted, both guys were only going 5-6 IP per start in college.

    Here's Beede's stats:

    Minus the walks, add some strikeouts, that's Hoffman. Beede and Hoffman are both 6'4", however Beede is listed at 210-215 and Hoffman is listed as 185-192. Is it a wonder he's due a TJ yet with no lower body base to throw from?

    It seems to be a lot of Jeff Hoffman's hype is build on a sandlot type curveball and a great performance in the Cape Code League. But here's the top pitchers from 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. How many of those top guys do you recognize?

    Who do you recognize? Joe Saunders in 2000? Tim Lincecum killed it in 2005 (2 K's per IP!!). Kyle Gibson and Aaron Crow in 2007. Chris Sale in 2009. Sean Manea killed it in 2012. Kyle Freeland was the best in 2013.

    If you didn't find Jeff Hoffman's stats in 2012, here's his player card.

    And just for fun, some of the top college pitchers career stats piled up.


    So personally, I would lose all hope in the Twins if they chose Hoffman at #5 just be merely sick if he's their pick at #46.

    I don't know much about the HS pitchers. Aiken and Koleck, I would think, would surely be gone by #5. Touki, in the number of clips I've watched, has a poor catcher, electric stuff, but is wild. Hard to tell how much a decent catcher would do. He (the catcher) is all over the place, drove me nuts watching him. You'd think someone would help the guy and let him know there's 20+ college and pro scouts at every game Touki pitches.

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  15. #893
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    Well, you definitely make me more comfortable with Nola... That said, the more I think about this, I think the Twins should go highest ceiling with that pick. I'd think long and hard about Touki, who should still be on the board at 5. I'd probably have him ahead of Nola/Gordon right now, unless the Twins think Gordon's bat can be of the .800+ OPS variety in the bigs. Still not against an underslot deal given Fede, Hoffman, and the plethora of high ceiling HS arms that will fall.

  16. #894
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    Fantastic write up Twinsfan34. You definitely reinforce the fact that there is no reason for the Twins to draft Hoffman at #5. I do feel grabbing Hoffman, which won't happen, at #46 would be a steal and feel just looking at college numbers paint the whole picture. Here is another college stud and his stats:

    18 W/5L, 2.93 ERA, 218 innings pitched, 6 CG, 273K, 109 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 11.27 SO/9.

    Who is the pitcher? None other than Twins own Alex Wimmers. While he was a dominant pitcher in college when he entered the pros most had him tagged as a future #4 with a ceiling of a #3. It is always good to have top college players dominate their competition but in the end stats can only tell you so much.

  17. #895
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    Is there really anybody the Twins would concievably pick over Kolek if he was still available? I just can't believe they would pass on him if he was an option. IF....IF the twins had both him and Stewart and both pitched according to projections...Wow

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  19. #896
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Good writeup twinsfan but I don't think Hoffman was in play since he went under the knife. I do think if you squint at the Cape Cod numbers you can see a trend where the guys with extreme K/BB ratios have cracked the MLB to some degree of success (Saunders, Crow, Sale, and up and comers like Manaea and Cooney). But, plenty fizzled too.

  20. #897
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Since reading Verducci's column last week, I went ahead and sorted college arms by age. If an indication of future elbow health is less about saving bullets than it is about reaching the cutoff age healthy (~24 years), then that has to be a factor too I think.

    Pitcher DOB Age
    Carlos Rodon 12/10/1992 21.447
    Jeff Hoffman 1/8/1993 21.367
    Nick Burdi 1/19/1993 21.337
    Erick Fedde 2/25/1993 21.236
    Jacob Lindgren 3/12/1993 21.195
    Brandon Finnegan 4/14/1993 21.104
    Sean Newcomb 4/14/1993 21.104
    Kyle Freeland 5/14/1993 21.022
    Tyler Beede 5/23/1993 20.997
    Aaron Nola 6/4/1993 20.964
    Chris Oliver 7/8/1993 20.871
    Luke Weaver 8/21/1993 20.751
    Matt Imhof 10/26/1993 20.57

    Of course, there's Hoffman right near the top. Maybe you can't really favor a 21.3 year old over a 20.5, I dunno.

  21. #898
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    Is there really anybody the Twins would concievably pick over Kolek if he was still available? I just can't believe they would pass on him if he was an option. IF....IF the twins had both him and Stewart and both pitched according to projections...Wow
    I would assume if Kolek is there at #5, which I truly doubt he will be, the Twins would take him. Saying that, Kolek is far from a finished product. While he has a massive fastball his secondary pitches and control are lagging behind. Also, when you have a kid his age throwing that hard the words Tommy and John have to at least come into play in the discussion at some point.

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    Also, when you have a kid his age throwing that hard the words Tommy and John have to at least come into play in the discussion at some point.
    According to Dr. Andrews, if you throw hard enough to get drafted in the first round, TJS has to come into play.

    As far as pitcher injury nexus theory (~24 years), it's just that -- a theory with flawed data to support it. Pitching is an unnatural act that hurts the arm/shoulder/elbow. Ask John Smoltz or Scott Baker or Brad Radke. Pitchers break.

    The flaw in injury nexus theory is survivorship bias.

    Pitchers who have bad mechanics (or any other flaw that would put them at greater risk of seeing their careers end early via injury) are automatically weeded out of baseball at a young age, leaving behind only the group of pitchers who made it through that initial checkpoint.
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ll-cant-solve/

    And of course none of the pitchers on Willi's list were within two years of the hypothetical nexus.

    A lot of Cape Cod guys fizzle because a lot of prospects fizzle.

  23. #900
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ll-cant-solve/

    And of course none of the pitchers on Willi's list were within two years of the hypothetical nexus.
    No, but from the following paragraph

    If a pitcher like Fernandez was going to get hurt, it would be at this stage of his career, when the largest possible pool of pitchers is facing its first test of injury resistance. Keep pitching without incident, though, and Fernandez’s odds of future ailments would be significantly reduced, simply because the biggest test — whether he can handle a major league workload — would already have been passed.
    Fernandez is currently 21.290 years old - younger than Rodon and others on the list above.

    I understand there is a survivorship bias in play with the nexus theory. Its sorta why I think it makes sense that a 21.3 year old TJS-avoider will stand a greater chance of surviving than a 20.8 year old.

    As far as pitcher injury nexus theory (~24 years), it's just that -- a theory with flawed data to support it. Pitching is an unnatural act that hurts the arm/shoulder/elbow. Ask John Smoltz or Scott Baker or Brad Radke. Pitchers break.
    Well talk to Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, etc. Obviously there are pitchers who throw hard and avoid the knife.

    I'm curious what you're getting at with the Dr. Andrews' "throw harder than 85 and you will break your UCL." Do you think the Twins target soft tossers?

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