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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #801
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

    Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...243693621.html
    I have no problem preferring Jackson or a different prospect to Gordon. Part of the fun of following the draft is debating whom the Twins should draft. The problem I have is you are inaccurately depicting Gordon's defensive prospect level by comparing him to other past Twins prospects.

    When evaluating SS defense you have to look at several things. Arm strength, hands, size, instincts, range, and lateral movement.

    Polanco signed for $750k (not bad but not elite for an international prospect) at age 16. The article you linked suggested Polanco most likely will have to move off SS because "his lack of size and arm strength." Gordon has a 70 grade arm and is 6'1 with a solid family blood line that suggests he will be the ideal SS size.

    Levi Michael was a the 30th overall pick in the 2011 signed out of North Carolina. Here is what mlb.com had to say about his defense: "
    When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine." Gordon is 3+ inches taller than Michael, has a stronger arm, and has better range.

    As for Dozier, I personal don't remember his scouting report but he was a 8th round picking coming out of college. While he is currently preforming well in the bigs you can't compare an 8th round pick to a potential top 5 pick prospect wise.

    Instead of comparing him to past Twins prospects we should look at his skills. Here is BA's take: "The game comes easy to Gordon, who is a confident, instinctive player. He has lateral range to both sides and natural, fluid actions, with soft hands to go with a plus arm that is the arguably the best infield arm in the high school class." Gordon has everything you are looking for defensively for a SS which is more then I can say for past Twins SS prospects.

    Last edited by cmb0252; 05-14-2014 at 01:13 AM.

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  3. #802
    I'd be bummed if Gordon goes before 5. I want the Twins to at least have the choice of picking him.

  4. #803
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    So for me, you have to consider the fact that with the 5th pick, a good chance exists that Gordon moves off of SS, in which case his value plummets quite a bit. A guy whose hit tool is 45/50 at #5 overall makes me think someone with more upside like a Toussant or Jackson makes more sense. Jackson is not a SS, but he is not a 45/50 either.
    It is fascinating to me that we have such completely opposite viewpoints on the top two high school players. Jackson is the player that scares me. All of his value it tied to his bat, and as a corner outfielder, he is really going to need to hit in order to be valuable. Maybe he will become the next Matt Holliday and be a great hitter, but if he misses his projection just a little bit - say he struggles with breaking balls, or doesn't quite draw enough walks, or his power doesn't quite develop - then he is just a good hitter. If he misses by more than a little bit, then he is just an average hitter. An average-to-good hitter at a corner position is not terribly valuable. By no means not a zero, but not the type of player that will carry a team to the next level. Throw in the fact that he probably won't add a ton of value fielding (hopefully he is at least an average defender out there), and I am very, very concerned that he will struggle to be a league-average player.

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  6. #804
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

    Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...243693621.html
    I think Toussaint could be a really intriguing and brave pick. mlbpipeline ranked him #16 but likes his upside - he could have two plus pitches. "Toussaint, who spent most of the first six years of his life in Haiti, has one of the quickest and loosest arms in the 2014 high school class. He's still learning to control his pitches but could have a pair of well above-average offerings once he does.
    Toussaint usually operates at 91-93 mph with his fastball and has shown the ability to reach 97. His mid-70s curveball has so much downward break that his catchers have trouble holding onto it. He also shows the willingness to use a changeup, though he currently throws his too hard in the mid-80s. While he doesn't repeat his delivery consistently at this point, his athleticism bodes well for his future."

    If the Twins had a few earlier picks like Miami does (3 in the 30-40 range), I think I'd be really excited at drafting Touki and saving a little money for those extra picks. But we don't so it might be a bit of a reach at #5. That said, 10 years from now, he could be the best pitcher out of this draft.

  7. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I have no problem preferring Jackson or a different prospect to Gordon. Part of the fun of following the draft is debating whom the Twins should draft. The problem I have is you are inaccurately depicting Gordon's defensive prospect level by comparing him to other past Twins prospects.

    When evaluating SS defense you have to look at several things. Arm strength, hands, size, instincts, range, and lateral movement.

    Polanco signed for $750k (not bad but not elite for an international prospect) at age 16. The article you linked suggested Polanco most likely will have to move off SS because "his lack of size and arm strength." Gordon has a 70 grade arm and is 6'1 with a solid family blood line that suggests he will be the ideal SS size.

    Levi Michael was a the 30th overall pick in the 2011 signed out of North Carolina. Here is what mlb.com had to say about his defense: "
    When he's healthy, he's got above-average speed and will steal a base. An ankle injury has slowed him somewhat this season on both sides of the ball. Even before that, some scouts felt his range was too limited to be an everyday shortstop as a professional. His average arm is playable there but might be a bit short to profile there all the time. As a result, most see him as a second baseman -- his hands work just fine." Gordon is 3+ inches taller than Michael, has a stronger arm, and has better range.

    As for Dozier, I personal don't remember his scouting report but he was a 8th round picking coming out of college. While he is currently preforming well in the bigs you can't compare an 8th round pick to a potential top 5 pick prospect wise.

    Instead of comparing him to past Twins prospects we should look at his skills. Here is BA's take: "The game comes easy to Gordon, who is a confident, instinctive player. He has lateral range to both sides and natural, fluid actions, with soft hands to go with a plus arm that is the arguably the best infield arm in the high school class." Gordon has everything you are looking for defensively for a SS which is more then I can say for past Twins SS prospects.

    Just something I think we should consider.


    I am not comparing Gordon with these other guys per se. I am just calling out a few things:

    -We have drafted or signed numerous SS prospects and moved them. A few we thought would stick at SS

    -We have very high standards for our SS defensively

    -It is common for a player to grow an inch or two and put on 15-25 pounds from when they are 17 or 18. Does anyone recognize this guy? He is now 6'4 or 6'5 and probably 225 or 230 pounds. So when I look at a kid that does not have a huge bat, i.e. would be limited if he is not a SS and is 6'1, 170 at this same age.....I guess I am not as sold that he is a lock to never grow off SS or meet our expectations.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-14-2014 at 08:47 AM.

  8. #806
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Let me get this right. Scouts expect Gordon's hit and power to come along as he fills into his frame... but there's absolutely no risk he outgrows shortstop?

    Who here said "no risk"? Just curious.
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #807
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I think Toussaint could be a really intriguing and brave pick. mlbpipeline ranked him #16 but likes his upside - he could have two plus pitches. "Toussaint, who spent most of the first six years of his life in Haiti, has one of the quickest and loosest arms in the 2014 high school class. He's still learning to control his pitches but could have a pair of well above-average offerings once he does.
    Toussaint usually operates at 91-93 mph with his fastball and has shown the ability to reach 97. His mid-70s curveball has so much downward break that his catchers have trouble holding onto it. He also shows the willingness to use a changeup, though he currently throws his too hard in the mid-80s. While he doesn't repeat his delivery consistently at this point, his athleticism bodes well for his future."

    If the Twins had a few earlier picks like Miami does (3 in the 30-40 range), I think I'd be really excited at drafting Touki and saving a little money for those extra picks. But we don't so it might be a bit of a reach at #5. That said, 10 years from now, he could be the best pitcher out of this draft.
    I have seen Touki in the 7-9 range, but I don't want to get too caught up in where other people think he should be drafted. I read his fastball sits 92-93 and can run up to 95-96 and he has a sick curve ball, as good as any in the draft and a future 70 pitch. Along with a serviceable change up, which is normal for a high school kid.

    Keith Law said Jackson has the best shot of anyone in this draft class of being a consistent 35 HR a year guy.

    The upside potential of those two interest me.
    Last edited by tobi0040; 05-14-2014 at 08:52 AM.

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  11. #808
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Who here said "no risk"? Just curious.
    The term "near lock to stick at SS" has been used, as well as "every scout says he will stick at SS". Pretty close to no risk.

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  13. #809
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    I don't dislike Gordon but at #5, I could really care less about defense.

    It's hip to talk about defensive measurables these days, but offense is still much, much more important than defense. If the Twins go offense, I guess I want the guy who has the best bat regardless of position.

    Still, I'm glad to see Holmes, Newcomb and Toussaint continue to inch up the rankings. Those guys still intregue me.

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  15. #810
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    I'll be pleased with Jackson, Gordon, or a pitcher with great breaking ball(s) (the reserach on FG is pretty clear.....good FB, great breaking ball, that's the ticket).
    Lighten up Francis....

  16. #811
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

    Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/tw...243693621.html
    Not sure if you have noticed but Polanco is back at SS. Him moving off of SS had to do with two things: A 2nd SS with a better arm on the same team and Polanco having an average arm. He's back at SS now because his bat is much better than Goodrum's currently and he has a much better chance at making the MLB.

    Gordon has a great arm. He is incredibly athletic and will be even if gains 20 lbs. He also gets good marks on his current defense. He's about as close of a lock to stay at SS as any SS that is getting drafted. As far as I can tell the only SS that you would ever be in favor of the Twins drafting is a 25+ HR hitter that is almost a guarantee to move off of the position.

  17. #812
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Not sure if you have noticed but Polanco is back at SS. Him moving off of SS had to do with two things: A 2nd SS with a better arm on the same team and Polanco having an average arm. He's back at SS now because his bat is much better than Goodrum's currently and he has a much better chance at making the MLB.

    Gordon has a great arm. He is incredibly athletic and will be even if gains 20 lbs. He also gets good marks on his current defense. He's about as close of a lock to stay at SS as any SS that is getting drafted. As far as I can tell the only SS that you would ever be in favor of the Twins drafting is a 25+ HR hitter that is almost a guarantee to move off of the position.
    I don't know of anyone in the Twins organization that has a belief that Polanco will be a short stop for the Twins. Here is a direct comment from Nick Nelson "there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors".

    All I am saying is Gordon at #5 has risks that someone like Jackson does not. Jackson's bat and power potential profiles at a number of positions. Nobody is saying Gordon's bat does.

    I don't need a SS that will hit 25 HR. I never said that. Just highlighting risks associated with this pick at #5. If you can take an 18 year old pitcher with two plus pitches or the best power bat in the draft, that risk/reward trade off seems better to me.

  18. #813
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    BA released their Top 100.

    Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.

  19. #814
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    BA released their Top 100.

    Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.
    A 21.3 K to BB ratio will do that (so far this year).

    He looks real good. He does not face the same competition as the others, but his numbers in the Cape Cod league were incredible, 48 IP, 1.88 ERA, 60 K, 5 BB

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...18121397407590

  20. #815
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I don't know of anyone in the Twins organization that has a belief that Polanco will be a short stop for the Twins. Here is a direct comment from Nick Nelson "there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors".

    All I am saying is Gordon at #5 has risks that someone like Jackson does not. Jackson's bat and power potential profiles at a number of positions. Nobody is saying Gordon's bat does.

    I don't need a SS that will hit 25 HR. I never said that. Just highlighting risks associated with this pick at #5. If you can take an 18 year old pitcher with two plus pitches or the best power bat in the draft, that risk/reward trade off seems better to me.
    SS, 2B, CF.....his bat projects to those three, as you've pointed out many times, SS often move to those positions.
    Lighten up Francis....

  21. #816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    BA released their Top 100.

    Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.
    From Mayo/Callis: "Freeland scuffled at times during his first two years at Evansville, going a combined 8-13 with a 4.44 ERA, before breaking out in the Cape Cod League last summer. He led college baseball's top summer league in strikeouts (48) and K-to-BB ratio (48-to-4), as hitters had trouble dealing with his fastball and slider. The same has been true this spring, when he has dominated once again. Batters react to Freeland's fastball as if he's throwing harder than 90-93 mph, because he has some deception in his delivery and the pitch has heavy life, and he can reach 95-96. He throws a true slider in the low 80s and can turn it into more of a mid-80s cutter at times. He'll also display an average changeup at times, getting good sink on it.
    Freeland throws from a lower arm angle and features more effort in his delivery than scouts like to see in a starter. But he should be able to work out of a rotation in pro ball because he has two swing-and-miss pitches and throws strikes."



    Interesting pick. He's a lefty as well. I'd be ok with that.

  22. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    SS, 2B, CF.....his bat projects to those three, as you've pointed out many times, SS often move to those positions.
    2B and CF are not exactly organizational priorities at the moment.

  23. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    BA released their Top 100.

    Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.
    Very odd list...Freeland at #5, Hoffman/Fedde still in the top 10, Conforto ahead of Zimmer/Holmes. I just can't figure out this list.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Very odd list...Freeland at #5, Hoffman/Fedde still in the top 10, Conforto ahead of Zimmer/Holmes. I just can't figure out this list.
    Hopefully some of those questions are answered in their chat.

  25. #820
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    2B and CF are not exactly organizational priorities at the moment.
    They might be in 4-5 years, when a HS kid will be ready. And your point was, that his bat does not project to any position other than SS, and I was pointing out that wasn't true.
    Lighten up Francis....

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