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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #601
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I find it ironic that Trea Turner is now out of the conversation for some of you that were making a case for him. He's having basically the same season except his BAPIP dropped from .390 to .300 this year.
    Turner had an ankle injury that slowed his home-to-first time from 3.5 to the 3.7-3.9 range. Or so I have read.
    edit: The injury was last year.
    Last edited by Willihammer; 04-28-2014 at 10:40 AM.

  2. #602
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Not sure what you mean by "all tools". Given his stats line, he looks like production and tools to me, not just tools. I would think every guy drafted might "never make it". I'm not saying they should take him.....just that dismissing seems like a really bad idea. If he's a top 10 SS, that's certainly worth number 5.
    Can we seriously stop this nonsense? Every time I critique a player negatively it is considered that I am dismissing him from the conversation. The problem that the Twins face is that I see 3 pitchers and probably Jackson that have set themselves apart from the pack. Gordon is in the next tier but I'm not the biggest fan. And I don't subscribe to the he's interesting because he's a SS. Take the best player and worry about having 20 All-Star OF'ers later.

    A lot of guys can produce in HS (20 games) and still be all tools. He might be riskier than taking a HS arm this high in the draft.

  3. #603
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Turner had an ankle injury that slowed his home-to-first time from 3.5 to the 3.7-3.9 range. Or so I have read.
    Wasn't that last year?

  4. #604
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Wasn't that last year?
    Correction, yes, the injury was last year. But injury or no injury there are conflicting reports about the speed. Is he an 80 or a 60 or something in between? If he was an 80 and is now a 60, that might explain some of the drop in BABIP.

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    Per your request, markos. Originally shared by cmb.

    John, what is Alex Jackson's ceiling/floor in terms of when he'll be selected? Seems like Houston and Miami need pitching more than hitting, but CWS could use everything. On the pessimistic side, could he fall out of the top 10?

    John Manuel: In this draft class, Jackson’s power and offensive ability stand out. I don’t see him falling out of the first 10 picks. I think he’s in play anywhere in the first 10 selections, frankly. He can hit, he’s athletic, he has a lengthy track record (particularly for a high school player) and he could remain at a premium position.

    Will Alex Jackson folllow the likes of Will Meyers and Bryce Harper and move from behind the plate due to the advanced bat? Is he at that level where it warrants moving him from behind the dish?
    John Manuel: That’s possible but I don’t believe he has the explosiveness offensively those two guys have. I do see him moving to RF as a possibility because the bat is advanced, but I haven’t talked to a scout who puts him in the same power category as those two.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...h-john-manuel/

  6. #606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Correction, yes, the injury was last year. But injury or no injury there are conflicting reports about the speed. Is he an 80 or a 60 or something in between? If he was an 80 and is now a 60, that might explain some of the drop in BABIP.
    Why would his speed be worse than last year when he had an injured ankle? Most likely he was either lucky last year or unlucky this year since we are talking about 40-60 game sample sizes. He's K'ing and BB'ing at similar rates with the same XBH%. If people liked him last year then they should like him this year.

  7. #607
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    kab....that dismiss statement wasn't aimed at anyone, but I can see why you thought that. It was a statement that the Twins, whomever cares, whatever, probably shouldn't dismiss the possibility of drafting him. Sorry for the confusion.

    On your other statement.....Let me know the next time the Twins trade prospects for a legit player, then I won't worry about what position they draft.
    Lighten up Francis....

  8. #608
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    I find it ironic that Trea Turner isnow out of the conversation for some of you that were making a case for him.He's having basically the same season except his BAPIP dropped from .390 to.300 this year.
    So which BABIP is a better indicator: the .374 as a freshman, the .393 as asophomore, or the .304 as a junior.

    Turner has changed his stance, so that it is really affecting his hitting and he has played much of the year in the middle of the order of an anemic defense. He still has more walks than strikeouts, he has an IsoD of .091, and IsoP of.168. If he could split the difference on his BABIP, his line would look like last year's.

    If Rodon goes in the top 3, it's because scouts are thinking of the first two years, not this one. If Turner does not go in the top 10, it’s because scouts have forgotten the first two years.

    Turner doesn’t have momentum. It's natural that we focus on momentum.

    Has Trea Turner fell to the 20's in the1st round w/ his poor offense and reduced 80 to 60 speed?
    John Manuel:He’s not a 60 runner. He may not be a consistent 80 runner anymore, but he’s not a 60 runner. He’s not falling that far. Too few college bats, his defense at SS has improved, and he still has impact speed. His SBs are down in part because he batted third for much of the first half of the season and often was clogged on the bases. I could not see him falling below Cincinnati at No. 19.
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...h-john-manuel/

  9. #609
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    kab....that dismiss statement wasn't aimed at anyone, but I can see why you thought that. It was a statement that the Twins, whomever cares, whatever, probably shouldn't dismiss the possibility of drafting him. Sorry for the confusion.

    On your other statement.....Let me know the next time the Twins trade prospects for a legit player, then I won't worry about what position they draft.
    They could trade a veteran because they have a good prospect or two coming up behind him. That would have been AJ. There was also the Garza trade. Ramos was a nice prospect traded for a veteran although they didn't aim very high on that one. That is 3 trades in the last decade or so.

    The problem with drafting a lesser talent (especially a risky one) is that the Twins end up with a better chance at getting nothing from a high draft pick. If they can land a potential all-star then it doesn't matter where he plays because all-stars are the difficult guys to obtain and they take a team to the next level.

  10. #610
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    I'm not yet convinced he's a lesser talent, though I admit I don't follow these guys as closely as you do.

    As for those trades, only Ramos was a trade of a prospect for a proven* player. They clearly are willing to trade MLB players for minor leaguers.

    *their words, not mine....
    Lighten up Francis....

  11. #611
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Why would his speed be worse than last year when he had an injured ankle? Most likely he was either lucky last year or unlucky this year since we are talking about 40-60 game sample sizes. He's K'ing and BB'ing at similar rates with the same XBH%. If people liked him last year then they should like him this year.
    Would an ankle injury affect his plate discipline? I don't know exactly when the injury occurred or how many games he got in before the injury. Combined with the reports that he is now closer to a 60 than an 80, it would be one possible explanation beside "bad luck."

    Turner had posted 80 grade speed times as a freshman and before his foot injury as a sophomore, but has never given me pure run times to first better than 70, mostly around 60 or 65. I don't know if he's still bothered by an injury or if the reports of 80 speed were exaggerated. It isn't a huge deal, but when you see a guy that you're told is an 80 runner and you see he can play short and looks like a 55 or 60 bat, shaving a couple notches off of both of those grades can really affect the projection. Turner still has an above average arm and the ability to stick at short as a league average defender.
    http://sbb.scout.com/2/1389607.html

  12. #612
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    Per your request, markos. Originally shared by cmb.
    Thanks. Sorry I missed the original post earlier.

    That is an interesting note about Jackson. It is crazy how much of his overall value depends on his ultimate position. As a catcher, a Wil Myers-lite hitter is an All-Star. As a corner-outfielder, he is basically a league average player.

  13. #613
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    BA wrote a article at the start of the year listing the college players with the best tools. Turner was #1 in speed, hit tool, and SS defense. Problem is Turner hasn't been consistent in a single one of those areas. Several evaluators have downgraded him in not only one of those categories but multiple. That takes a little of the shine away.

    As for Gordon he has done the opposite and outperformed almost everyones expectations for him. Add in strong bloodlines and the potential ability to move him to the mound if his bat implodes and you have a very interesting prospect. I'm not saying the Twins should draft him at #5 but he is on a short list of about 10-12 prospects I'm following closely before draft day.

    As for the other top HS position player, Jackson, I think people need to relook at the Myer/Harper comparison. It was never meant to suggest Jackson has the exact same power as either guy (Harper came out as a pure 80 power and Myer a 70) but to bring up the question if you should keep him at catcher instead of rushing his advanced bat. Also worth noting is while he doesn't have as strong of a power projection he has a better hit tool than either Myer/Harper.

  14. #614
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    On a different note, the HS baseball season is interesting. While Grant Holmes pitched his last game of the season last week several prospects are only in their 3rd or 4th games of the year. I always wonder if finishing too early could hurt a players draft stock because they won't have performances fresh on people's minds. Obviously the opposite could be said too if a player performs bad at the end of the year.

  15. #615
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Jackson batting .414/.590/.965 with eight home runs and has drawn 16 walks to six strikeouts through 22 games, according to this: http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2...st-round/42690

  16. #616
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    Jackson would be like Myers in that he was moved from behind the plate to a corner OF spot because his bat would advance faster than his catching skills. I think you take him, you think he can be a catcher. You let him develop at Josmil Pinto type pace because you can afford to wait. Myers, to me, is nothing that special. A guy who can hit and hit for decent power, but those guys come around much more often than a catcher who is passable at the plate.

  17. #617
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    You certainly leave him at catcher for 2 seasons. At that point they should have some idea how much slower the path to the majors is at catcher and if he would be a liability there.
    I wouldn't draft him at #5 if the plan was for him to catch in the pros. There hasn't been a useful catcher drafted and developed out of HS since 2002. I'm not sure if the game has changed somehow, but it would seem there is too much to learn about calling a game for both the offense and defense to develop. You're going to have to get head start in college, the talent would be wasted.

  18. #618
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    Crawford had a great quote from a scout on Nola after his worst performance of the year this weekend:

    "One bad start isn't going to make you not take a guy," an NL West scout said. "But it is a reminder that the margin of error for pitchers who rely more on command than dominating stuff is thin, and that's the case with [Nola]. I still think he's one of the safest college pitchers in this year's class, but if you're expecting anything more than a low-end third starter, you are setting your expectations too high, in my opinion."

  19. #619
    Senior Member Triple-A InfraRen's Avatar
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    Darren Wolfson @DarrenWolfson
    One guy the #MNTwins love w/ No. 5 pick in a few weeks: HS righthander Tyler Kolek (Shepherd, TX). Twins also pretty sure he's going top-4.
    Till I Collapse

  20. #620
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    mlbpipeline supposedly released a new top 100 for the draft but I can't find it. Here's the video discussing it: http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/2627167...yers/?c_id=mlb

    Mentions a really strong pitching class - 12 of the first 15 could be pitchers. Hoffman and Rodon haven't been as impressive as expected but a bunch of others have stepped up - Aiken, Kolek, Nola, Freeland, Finnigan etc.

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