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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #541
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    The Twins have had 40 picks in the first 2 rounds since 2000 and only taken 7 young pitchers. Of course two of those were Berrios and Stewart.
    Of course another way to look at this is The Twins have had four picks in the first two rounds since 2012 and have taken two young pitchers, Berrios and Stewart.

    I believe recent history is a stronger indicator of future actions.

  2. #542
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    True. On the other hand, the draft is littered with high upside guys with 98 mph fastballs who didn't make it, either. (Hello, Shooter Hunt). And Radcliff did have some success in later rounds drafting guys like Baker (2nd), Slowey (3rd), Duensing (3rd), Swarzak (2nd), Blackburn (36th) who had limited ceilings but maybe better floors.
    They have been successful drafting that way, but you're never going to find an ace or win a WS by fielding a rotation of Baker/Slowey/Duensin/Swarzak/Blackburn. You have to go for the high upside guys, and if the probablity of them panning out is less, that just means you have to draft more of them to up your odds.

    I'd rather draft a guy with a 10% chace of being an ace and a 50% chance of flaming out than drafting a guy with a 20% chance of being a #4 and a 40% chance of flaming out.

  3. #543
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    That's great to see. Right now, I'm pretty confident Kolek, Aiken and Rodon will be off the board for us. So I'd like both Hoffman and Jackson to do well so we can nab the one the Cubs don't.
    Definitely great to see. I would love to see Beede and a few of the bats step up in the second half to give the Twins a few options.

  4. #544
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    BA released a very in depth look at how well top college players have done so far by the numbers. A great read.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...season-update/
    I love this.

    I attempted an adjustment of the ISO values based on park factor. Assume half the games played so far are at home. The adjustment is ((100-home park factor)/2+100)*ISO

    Here is the revised leaderboard in descending order of adjusted ISO.

    Hitter PA ISO 2008-2011 Home Park Factor Hammer's adjusted ISO
    A.J. Reed, lhp/1b, Kentucky 169 0.4 97 0.406
    Casey Gillaspie, 1b, Wichita State 166 0.281 91 0.293645
    Rhys Hoskins, of, Sacramento State 141 0.272 86 0.29104
    Aaron Brown, lhp/of, Pepperdine 154 0.261 80 0.2871
    Bradley Zimmer, of, San Francisco 168 0.252 81 0.27594
    Austin Byler, 3b/1b, Nevada 153 0.281 107 0.271165
    Kyle Schwarber, c/1b, Indiana 158 0.25 93 0.25875
    Jordan Luplow, of, Fresno State 166 0.256 98 0.25856
    Connor Joe, c/1b, San Diego 183 0.244 95 0.2501
    Aramis Garcia, c, Florida International 163 0.236 101 0.23482
    Taylor Sparks, 3b/1b, UC Irvine 164 0.241 108 0.23136
    Jeff Gardner, of, Louisville 146 0.203 83 0.220255
    Mike Papi, of/1b, Virginia 166 0.202 84 0.21816
    Dustin DeMuth, 3b, Indiana 131 0.204 93 0.21114
    Chris Marconcini, 1b/of, Duke 175 0.202 92 0.21008
    Yale Rosen, 1b, Washington State 141 0.222 112 0.20868
    Sam Travis, 1b, Indiana 153 0.191 83 0.207235
    Kevin Cron, 1b, Texas Christian 156 0.184 80 0.2024
    Max Pentecost, c, Kennesaw State 187 0.192 99 0.19296
    Matt Chapman, 3b/rhp, Cal State Fullerton 133 0.184 107 0.17756
    J.D. Davis, 1b/3b/rhp, Cal State Fullerton 146 0.182 107 0.17563
    Alex Blandino, 3b, Stanford 125 0.173 100 0.173
    Mark Zagunis, c, Virginia Tech 222 0.169 98 0.17069
    Garrett Boulware, c, Clemson 160 0.169 100 0.169
    Mark Payton, of, Texas 179 0.152 79 0.16796
    Brandon Downes, of, Virginia 149 0.155 84 0.1674
    Taylor Gushue, c, Florida 161 0.166 103 0.16351
    Michael Conforto, of, Oregon State 160 0.151 84 0.16308
    Nick Torres, of, Cal Poly 162 0.162 109 0.15471
    Joey Epperson, of/1b, UC Santa Barbara 144 0.156 102 0.15444
    Dylan Davis, of/rhp, Oregon State 152 0.141 84 0.15228
    Skyler Ewing, c/1b, Rice 182 0.149 97 0.151235
    Boo Vazquez, of, Pittsburgh 156 0.146 94 0.15038
    Michael Suchy, of, Florida Gulf Coast 167 0.137 84 0.14796
    Trea Turner, ss, North Carolina State 162 0.143 94 0.14729
    Grayson Greiner, c, South Carolina 141 0.151 106 0.14647
    Austin Cousino, of, Kentucky 179 0.143 104 0.14014
    Brian Anderson, 2b/3b/of, Arkansas 169 0.15 119 0.13575
    Mason Robbins, of, Southern Mississippi 165 0.144 112 0.13536
    Ross Kivett, 2b, Kansas State 180 0.128 96 0.13056
    Derek Fisher, of, Virginia 56 0.118 84 0.12744
    Hunter Cole, of, Georgia 173 0.128 109 0.12224
    Dante Flores, 2b/of, Southern California 148 0.114 94 0.11742
    Joey Pankake, 3b/rhp, South Carolina 149 0.119 106 0.11543
    Brett Austin, c, North Carolina State 156 0.111 94 0.11433
    Tanner English, of, South Carolina 145 0.095 106 0.09215
    Chris Mariscal, 3b/ss, Fresno State 164 0.09 98 0.0909
    Mitch Gunsolus, 3b, Gonzaga 163 0.086 90 0.0903
    Ben Roberts, of, Washington State 97 0.081 112 0.07614
    Mark Laird, of, Louisiana State 145 0.07 101 0.06965
    Greg Allen, of, San Diego State 172 0.057 115 0.052725
    Branden Cogswell, ss, Virginia 171 0.029 84 0.03132

  5. #545
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    Jim Callis' draft note book with notes on Aiken, Pentecost, and more:


    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...k_mlb&c_id=mlb

  6. #546
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Definitely great to see. I would love to see Beede and a few of the bats step up in the second half to give the Twins a few options.
    I'd actually like to see these guys step up to give the Chicago teams a few option! I'd still prefer the Twins to get Aiken/Kolek/Rodon.

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  8. #547
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    Keith Law scouted Kolek yesterday and compared him to the Pirate's Jameson Tallion. Here is what Law had to say about his stuff:

    "Kolek threw on Thursday evening at home, about an hour northeast of Houston, and while he didn't hit triple digits, he still worked with plus velocity. Kolek was 93-97, mostly sitting 95-96, showing good two-seam life on some of the pitches, with others straightening out because he overthrew them. He throws a hard, slurvy slider that is average to above-average when he's pitching to a right-handed batter, 79-83 with sharp break and good tilt. However it gets sloppy with a left-handed batter at the plate, as Kolek tries too hard to hit the outside corner and the pitch loses its sharpness and some of its angle. He has a changeup but barely uses it -- at this level it's just doing hitters who can't catch up to 94-plus velocity a favor."

    Link to article here:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1556

  9. #548
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    I'd actually like to see these guys step up to give the Chicago teams a few option! I'd still prefer the Twins to get Aiken/Kolek/Rodon.
    I would have second thoughts about Rodon at 1-5. He and his advisor have been counting on 1-1 money for 2 years. 1-1 slots at more than twice what 1-5 does

  10. #549
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    The Twins will may add to the rotation, add some talent, and add depth but this team will never build a rotation through free agency. Pelfrey and Hughes are both buy low situations, which we feel like we got value. Nolasco has a 4.37 career ERA and cost $11M a year. The Greinke's, soon to be Scherzer and Shields are not signing with us. So my two cents says taking the best arm, if we don't feel like we are giving up much value.
    I fear you misunderstood my comment. Spending all of that money (likely not planned two years ago!) should be sufficient reason to select the best starting pitcher available.

  11. #550
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    Rodon and Weaver had solid games today but high pitch counts. Beede with another clunker. He might end up being this years Stanek.

  12. #551
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    I fear you misunderstood my comment. Spending all of that money (likely not planned two years ago!) should be sufficient reason to select the best starting pitcher available.
    4th best starting pitcher or the best bat. I don't think it is cut and dry whom the Twins should take. Unless someone steps up I don't mind grabbing Jackson at 5. Big upside and a safer pick.

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  14. #552
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    It probably depends on how the pitches break out. Rodon, Hoffman, Aiken, and Kolek are all ace potential guys, and there's a few others you can potentially throw into that mix. If they are all off the board, I'm not going to cry about Jackson as the consolation prize... I'd hope Gatewood or Gordon could force it into a choice... or another pitcher...

  15. #553
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    4th best starting pitcher or the best bat. I don't think it is cut and dry whom the Twins should take. Unless someone steps up I don't mind grabbing Jackson at 5. Big upside and a safer pick.
    "Best bat" doesn't mean better than 4th/5th/ or even 10th best pitcher. Additionaly, my point is that I believe the Twins will select a pitcher based on the evidence of a large outlay of cash for pitching. Also consider that this "stiched-together line-up" has out-performed the "purchased" staff. By far and away the drafted (and so far) inexperience Gibson has way out-performed the free agents. These evidences strongly suggest that the Twins will continue to focus on pitching in the draft--especially this draft where the pitchers have demonstrated a clear advantage.
    I also think the Twins should take a pitcher.

  16. #554
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    According to Baseball America, Rodon's Friday was similar to most of his starts this season. Rodon's fastball sat 90-92 mph, touching 94 four times.

    " ... he didn’t have command of his fastball,” North Carolina State coach Elliott Avent said.

    [His slider] was at least a plus offering but lacked the depth and tilt of his offering last week.

    Rodon struck out seven on the day (21.9 percent) with a 2:1 groundout-flyout ratio in eight innings.

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...s-a-statement/

    Not what I would call a solid start for a first tier draft prospect. K/BB = 2.33:1, 7.88 K/9

  17. #555
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    Also sounds like beede had another stinker.

  18. #556
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I personally would be a little disappointed if the Twins didn't grab an arm in the second round. This draft is so deep in arms that it feels like you can get a first round talent arm with the 46th pick. Obviously depending on how the first round plays out this could obviously change. There are just so many HS arms I like.
    Who is on your radar for the 46th pick?

  19. #557
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    Interesting article at Crawfishboxes about high school arms and overuse.

    You see, it takes several thousand repetitions for the human body to truly establish a neuromuscular firing pattern. Now, you are asking a developing body that is increasing in height, weight, strength, muscle, and every thing else, to create a consistent neuromuscular firing pattern? A complex pattern of human movement that relies heavily on timing with an ever changing human body?

    It's doesn't makes sense for them to do that year round. They haven't built up the consistent delivery to establish that neuromuscular firing pattern consistently enough to compete year round. I have no problem throwing year round, my issue lies with year round competition because that increases the stress because pitchers are trying to impress college coaches and pro scouts which tends to rush deliveries and attempt to throw harder.
    And this from Tom Verducci:
    In one of the biggest studies of youth pitchers, a 10-year prospective study published in 2011, ASMI tracked 481 pitchers between the ages of nine and 14. Researchers found that pitchers who threw 100 innings or more in a calendar year were three and a half times more likely to be injured than those who pitched less. They recommended that no youth pitcher exceed 100 innings in a year and "no pitcher should continue to pitch when fatigued."
    As Fleisig said, however, "year-round baseball," which began to become popular in the 1990s, has raised the volume of competitive pitching. The most talented pitchers -- that is, the ones who typically throw the hardest -- often pitch on multiple travel teams across multiple seasons, not including their school team.
    ...

    Today it is common for top pitchers to throw well more than 100 innings across 10 to 12 months. Worse, I have seen pitchers show up at college camps and showcases in the middle of winter -- trying to impress a college coach with velocity, of course -- without having pitched regularly or in competition for two months.
    "And I see them at the other end, on Dr. [James] Andrews' operating table," Fleisig said. "They walk in on January 12 and say, 'I was at a showcase and hadn't thrown for two months and tried to throw as hard as I could."'
    The Astros blog article notes that Aiken took the winter off, Kolek didn't. Not sure about the rest of the class.

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  21. #558
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    That's one thing I like about the Kohl Stewart pick. SI has linked Jameson Taillon's TJ surgery to abuse before being drafted as a high school senior.
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...meson-taillon/

  22. #559
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    April 18th draft prospect run down:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/04/t...down-april-18/

  23. #560
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    Who is on your radar for the 46th pick?
    Because of the depth of pitching in this draft I feel the 46th pitch will be a pitcher. I really like a lot of the HS arms. Mac Marshall and personal favorite Foster Griffin are big lefties I would love to fall to the Twins. Jacob Bukauskas, Jacob Nix, and Sean Read-Foley are interesting RHPs. Kodi Medeiros and Justin Sheffield are undersized lefties with big stuff.

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