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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #101
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    Tyler kolek: 6 innings, 11K, 1 BB, 2 HB. Jim Call is reported a scout had this to say about Kolek:

    "His velocity was fine, 92-98 mph for the four innings I saw, but the command was spotty," an area scout said. "Obviously, you don't find a big body throwing like that too often, but if I were picking up near the top, I'd be concerned about whether he's going to throw enough strikes. At this level, no one is going to be able to hit that fastball.
    "He threw a few sliders at 84-85, a few curveballs at 79-80 and a few changeups. I [clocked] the changeup at 91. None of those pitches, I'd call plus. The curveball had better shape than the slider, which looks more like a cutter. But I'm not sure he threw any of those offspeed pitches for strikes."

    Link to article here:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...k_mlb&c_id=mlb

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.
    Twins will take the player they think is the BPA regardless of position, team need, or relative distance to the bigs. They did it the last two years and they will do it again this year.

  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    The other way of viewing that was that the Rangers were unwilling to trade the #1 prospect in baseball for Justin Upton. I get that there is some positional scarcity for real shortstops (which seems to be reflected in rankings - about 5 short stops were consistently ranked in the top 12 on most ranking systems). But my point when this started was that the Twins should take the BPA and worry about positions later. If Kolek is available at #5 and the Twins have him ranked above Turner, they shouldn't take Turner just b/c he represents a positional need.
    I think you're conflating positional need with positional scarcity and value. They are 2 separate things. You can have a need at a position of scarcity, like catcher, or a need at a position that you can find on the FA market, like a corner OF. There can also be a league-wide scarcity at a position, like SS, and a team like the Rangers can be stocked with talent.

    I'm not sure the Twins should consider "need" per se, but I do think they should think about positional scarcity.

    Here is a simplistic way to think about it. Imagine you're stranded in the desert with 10 other people. The only water available to you is a little mud hole with mysterious scum looking sludge growing on it. Next to the mud hole there is a beautifully prepared New York Strip steak. Beside that there is a perfectly cooked lobster with butter dipping sauce and next to that there is a browned pheasant wafting the most amazing smells. The food continues down the line quite a ways each more appetizing than the last. Now you're thinking to yourself, damn that water is NASTY and I know my buddy next to me can hear my stomach growling. In the end though you had better be fighting for that water if you want to live.

    Scarcity can make a commodity more valuable even if it is of a lower quality.

    I think the real questions we should be asking are 1) What positions are scarce and how scarce are they? and 2) what does it cost to acquire those positions in comparison to other non-scarce positions and 3) How scarce does a position need to be to justify the including scarcity into the drafting equation?

    In the end I'm guessing, like most things, that there will be a spectrum and there isn't a black and white answer.
    Last edited by Oxtung; 02-25-2014 at 06:07 PM.

  4. #104
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    I remain interested in but skeptical of Turner. If his bat is actually comparable to Andrus then I'm not a big fan but he doesn't need to hit like Tulo or ARod to be an offensive asset. Let's say he can hit .285 and walk enough for a .340 OBP. If he has enough pop for 8-10 HR's and 30-40 2B's then he's awesome. If he's a 3HR and 20-25 2B guy then he becomes less interesting compared to a potential #1.

  5. #105
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    To be clear, what's scarce are SS's and C's who can hit.

    SS's and C's who can't hit aren't scarce at all.

    Assuming Turner's glove sticks at SS, then it all is a question of bat. I for one am not convinced Turner has enough bat or even the potential to have enough bat to be a very scarce/valuable asset.

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  7. #106
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    Trea Turner

    I've never heard anyone question whether he will remain at SS. His lowest rated tool is power, which I've seen projected at 12-15 HR's. No doubt our favorite team has him under the microscope, as was Stewart.

  8. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    To be clear, what's scarce are SS's and C's who can hit.

    SS's and C's who can't hit aren't scarce at all.

    Assuming Turner's glove sticks at SS, then it all is a question of bat. I for one am not convinced Turner has enough bat or even the potential to have enough bat to be a very scarce/valuable asset.
    Does he have to have a Tulo bat to satisfy you? It seems that some are writing him off as a light hitting MI when it's more likely that he's neither a light hitting MI nor is he Tulo. With his speed he could have a Reyes bat at leadoff and that would be an awesome get.

    My remaining questions are still does he have the real gap power (.150ish isoP) and does he have the plate discipline/contact ability to have a .285 BA with a .340 OBP. If those are yes then I could get on board with Turner but I remain skeptical.

  9. #108
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    I'd really love to have the closest thing to RHP Braden Shipley from last year IN THIS draft.

    He was a great college pitcher people seemed to think he'd be only average or a 4th starter type at the next level, Now he looks like a future stud and will be in AA or AAA already.

    possibly a #2 and easily a good #3 starter.

    He was overlooked in last years draft should of been a top 8 pick. not in the teens....
    Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
    2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Nick Gordon (SS-RK) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.

  10. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I think you're conflating positional need with positional scarcity and value.
    I think the best way to end this is to simply say that BPA takes both into account. After that, we're just talking past each other.

  11. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Does he have to have a Tulo bat to satisfy you? It seems that some are writing him off as a light hitting MI when it's more likely that he's neither a light hitting MI nor is he Tulo. With his speed he could have a Reyes bat at leadoff and that would be an awesome get.

    My remaining questions are still does he have the real gap power (.150ish isoP) and does he have the plate discipline/contact ability to have a .285 BA with a .340 OBP. If those are yes then I could get on board with Turner but I remain skeptical.
    Doubles and SB's are fine but I'd like to see at least JJ Hardy power potential, at the 5th overall pick. 20-25 HR/year.

  12. #111
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    Really? I think your bar is a bit high. Not many players even hit 25 HRs a year anymore, at any position. The odds of finding one, and developing one, are pretty low. If he's a legit SS that can get on base over 33% of the time, with speed, he's worth 3-4 WAR a year......no idea if he is that guy, but your bar, imo, is way off.
    Lighten up Francis....

  13. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Really? I think your bar is a bit high. Not many players even hit 25 HRs a year anymore, at any position. The odds of finding one, and developing one, are pretty low. If he's a legit SS that can get on base over 33% of the time, with speed, he's worth 3-4 WAR a year......no idea if he is that guy, but your bar, imo, is way off.
    If you aren't going to shoot for 25 HRs at no. 5 then when? No. 1?

  14. #113
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    BaseballAmerica article on Brady Aiken who has the potential to not only be the first HS lefty taken in the draft but a top 10 pick:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...y-aiken-video/

  15. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    If you aren't going to shoot for 25 HRs at no. 5 then when? No. 1?
    I'm with you. At #5 I want a 4-5 tool guy, not a 3 tool guy, even if he's a shortstop. The less tools, the less ceiling. There's just so much less margin for error if one of the assumed tools doesn't pan out.

  16. #115
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    Shoot for it all you want, expect it? That's not likely to happen, so being disappointed when it doesn't is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
    Lighten up Francis....

  17. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Doubles and SB's are fine but I'd like to see at least JJ Hardy power potential, at the 5th overall pick. 20-25 HR/year.
    So basically you are asking for Tulo at SS at #5?

    With 10 HR's, the 2B's and the rest of his offensive skillset we are talking a Jose Reyes type. If his defense is even tolerable at SS then that is an awesome player and something this team really needs.

  18. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    So basically you are asking for Tulo at SS at #5?

    With 10 HR's, the 2B's and the rest of his offensive skillset we are talking a Jose Reyes type. If his defense is even tolerable at SS then that is an awesome player and something this team really needs.
    FLorimon hit 9 HRs and we got him off waivers. Just saying.

  19. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    FLorimon hit 9 HRs and we got him off waivers. Just saying.
    The # of HR's that a player hits is a small part of of his offensive value. Florimon is a terrible hitter and Hardy is average. A player could easily be above average while only hitting 10 HR's.

  20. #119
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    HRs are only a small portion of offfensive value if you don't hit any.

    edit: people realize these top 10 picks are going away if/when we start winning again, right? We need to stock up potential superstars with these picks. No. 1 starters or cleanup batters. Not speedy leadoff guys. If there's not a SS available with that sort of upside, then pass. Its not like there aren't alternatives at no. 5.

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  22. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    The # of HR's that a player hits is a small part of of his offensive value. Florimon is a terrible hitter and Hardy is average. A player could easily be above average while only hitting 10 HR's.
    I may not be on the same page as Willihammer but it's not that he needs to have power so much as he needs to have as many avenues to contribute as possible. Mauer was an assumed 5 tool prospect. He has turned out to be a great pick even though the power and speed didn't develop. His hit tool is great and he was a great defensive catcher for a long time. He's good despite only hitting on 3/5 of his tools but I'd imagine he'd be considered a bust if he'd only developed 2.

    Going into the draft, if a guy only has three tools, he's going to have to hit on all of them. It could happen and he could play at his ceiling like Elvis Andrus, but the odds are likely against all three tools being as advertised.

    However scouts may change their mind on Turner. They may end up believing he will hit well at the next level and/or develop some sneaky power. I'd be fine with a projection of lots of XBH and 10-15 HR if he can get on base. I'd take a Dustin Pedroia type at SS any day.
    Last edited by nicksaviking; 02-26-2014 at 11:46 AM.

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