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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Christopher Crawford released an ESPN insider article called Five biggest draft storylines. Here are his 5:

    1.Just how good is Carlos Rodon?
    Is he a better prospect than Strasburg?

    2. Who's number 3?
    Rodon and Hoffman are considered by most the top two prospects in the draft but who is number 3? Kolek? Jackson? Gatewood?

    3. Where are the college bats?
    With more and more elite bats signing out of high school will there ever be a strong college position player draft? He suggests teams might reach and mentions the Twins might go for Turner.

    4. Which prep pitcher might step up?
    From a scout:
    "It's a deep group," an NL East scout said. "You've got guys like Tyler Kolek, who have the imposing size and fastball, but you wonder about the projection and if the secondary offerings are good enough to make him a legit ace. Then you look at a guy like Grant Holmes [Conway, S.C.] who might be the most advanced-arm in the class with three plus pitches, but doesn't have that knockout tool.

    "And then there's the lefties like Justus Sheffield [Tullahoma, Tenn.] and Brady Aiken[San Diego, Calif.] who don't have the stuff of the guys we just talked about, but could be better prospects just because of their feel for pitching and quality secondary stuff."

    5. How good is the state of Florida?
    Names several players who are potential top 25 draft prospects including Nick Gordon and Forrest Wall. Two guys BA had this article about 2 days ago:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/prime-prospect-pair-forrest-wall-vs-nick-gordon/

    For Crawford's full insider article here is the link:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1269

    The first time I've heard the Twins linked to Turner. We know the Twins won't reach, but I hope they are watching him as closely as they watched Stewart.

  2. #82
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    No thanks on Pentecost. If your picking a bat at #5, I want the best offensive player period. I don't want a qualifying addendum, i.e. "this guy is a really good hitter considering he's a catcher."

    I see your point, but I don't think this works well every time. The best available 1B bat may be better than the best available SS bat, but it's quite possible that the SS/CF is the better player because of their defensive value. I'm still leaning towards upside that high in the draft. I doubt there will be 5 stud college guys that will be sure things at their positions (hopefully of need), so when the Twins pick at 5, I'd grab for ceiling... For me right now, that's Kolek or Gatewood.

    All could easily change. I see the turner love, but I just don't see grabbing a guy who might be the next Elvis Andrus at 5 overall. Andrus is a good player, but not exactly the type of guy I'd target that high in the draft. There are better ceilings out there at that point, and if org need is the primary consideration, then I'd rather go with Gatewood.

  3. #83
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    Keith Law was at East Carolina's game last night to see Hoffman and here is what he saw:

    "Hoffman came out throwing gas, 94-96 mph in the first inning and holding 96 for several innings, eventually slipping to more 92-94 by the sixth and seventh. The pitch is straight, however, and Virginia hitters were on it all game -- a few cheated to get around on the pitch, but most of their hitters were at least able to make solid contact to foul it off even if they couldn't pull it. His changeup was an above-average offering on Friday, mostly 85-to-88 with one at 90 in the first inning, some too firm, others with that string-pulling illusion that you associate with a good straight change. He showed confidence in the pitch, doubling up on it and throwing it to right-handed hitters. His curveball was fringy, 77-80 mph early and 73-74 mph by the end of his outing, with spike-like break when he finished it -- maybe one of every four curveballs he threw -- with little feel for where it was going."

    He goes on to mention that if his command doesn't pick up several college arms could pass him. He also mentions a few other players in the insider article:

    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1279

  4. #84
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    Then you look at a guy like Grant Holmes [Conway, S.C.] who might be the most advanced-arm in the class with three plus pitches, but doesn't have that knockout tool.
    How can you have three plus pitches but not a knockout tool?

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lonestar View Post
    How can you have three plus pitches but not a knockout tool?
    He has three pitches that are 60 to 65 but no 70+ pitch. No "out" pitch. Most aces have at least one 70 pitch and many have 2.

  6. #86
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    Here is BaseballAmericas game report on Rodon from last night:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...h-as-hed-like/

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Here is BaseballAmericas game report on Rodon from last night:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...h-as-hed-like/

    Reading a bit closer and we find that a Trea Turner error led to the first two runs. Three runs were scored with the help of a second Err by 3B shortly followed by a hung-slider--3-run HR. I'm guessing that his change-up isn't "plus" because Rodon did confess to being "slider-happy". But, he will have been selected by the time the Twins select so ....

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    Just last year the Diamondbacks traded Bauer, who looks likely to bust, for a pretty decent shortstop prospect. Andrus was part of the Teixeira deal a few years back. The Red Sox traded away Hanley Ramirez (and Anibal Sanchez) for Beckett. The Twins could move Sano for most any shortstop in the minors if they wanted to.
    I think you're using hindsight here. At the time of the Bauer/Gregorious trade Bauer was still a top 100 prospect that had Ace stuff. There was questions about him but he was still very highly thought of.

    In order to pry Andrus (and others but Andrus was the keystone of the trade) away from Atlanta Texas had to give up one of the top first basemen in the majors with a year and a half of control still remaining as well as a very good reliever in Mahay.

    Josh Beckett, while he never developed into it, was a potential #1/2 starter. Just a couple years before the trade he was considered the top prospect in baseball. At the time of the trade he was about to hit his prime at 25yo. In addition at the time of the trade Hanley Ramirez was coming off a very bad year at AA and had some legitimate questions surrounding him.

    So what I see is Ramirez and Gregorious were both moved for big upside pitchers with Ace potential. Andrus was moved for one of the top 1B in the game.

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I think you're using hindsight here. At the time of the Bauer/Gregorious trade Bauer was still a top 100 prospect that had Ace stuff. There was questions about him but he was still very highly thought of.

    In order to pry Andrus (and others but Andrus was the keystone of the trade) away from Atlanta Texas had to give up one of the top first basemen in the majors with a year and a half of control still remaining as well as a very good reliever in Mahay.

    Josh Beckett, while he never developed into it, was a potential #1/2 starter. Just a couple years before the trade he was considered the top prospect in baseball. At the time of the trade he was about to hit his prime at 25yo. In addition at the time of the trade Hanley Ramirez was coming off a very bad year at AA and had some legitimate questions surrounding him.

    So what I see is Ramirez and Gregorious were both moved for big upside pitchers with Ace potential. Andrus was moved for one of the top 1B in the game.
    But the original point was that good shortstops weren't available in a trade and I was just pointing out that they were. (And Bauer already had substantial doubters - esp in his own org - at the time of the trade). So it still makes sense to take BPA and trade for a position of weakness rather than take a lesser player for your teams needs now.

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    I see your point, but I don't think this works well every time. The best available 1B bat may be better than the best available SS bat, but it's quite possible that the SS/CF is the better player because of their defensive value. I'm still leaning towards upside that high in the draft. I doubt there will be 5 stud college guys that will be sure things at their positions (hopefully of need), so when the Twins pick at 5, I'd grab for ceiling... For me right now, that's Kolek or Gatewood.

    All could easily change. I see the turner love, but I just don't see grabbing a guy who might be the next Elvis Andrus at 5 overall. Andrus is a good player, but not exactly the type of guy I'd target that high in the draft. There are better ceilings out there at that point, and if org need is the primary consideration, then I'd rather go with Gatewood.
    I don't think we're really in disagreement, I want the top ceiling guy, but if we're talking about BPA regardless of organizational position depth, I think that should mean go after the best hitter. Rarely can anyone guarantee a hitter will hold his position at the MLB level. I've been making the Andrus and his low ceiling comp for awhile. If his defensive or speed tool had never developed he would have flopped.

    Get the guy with the most tools, but weigh the ones associated with the bat more strongly. I actually am more ambivalent about defensive position, I know it's not popular, but I'd rather have the best hitter than I'd rather have a "pretty good hitter for position x"

  11. #91
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    I like the idea of taking the BPA pretty much wherever you are drafting in the early rounds. The problem is BPA can be sort of a slippery thing. The Twins received a certain amount of crap for drafting Revere. Many did not consider him a first round talent. Perhaps they were right, but Revere has turned into a better player than most who were drafted near where he was. So, was he a bad pick because he didn't have as a high a perceived ceiling as some who were available when the Twins drafted?

    I think a good draft is when you end up with good players from that draft. A great draft is when you get an impact player, and maybe some other useful players. So, while I want the Twins to take the BPA and high ceiling players, sometimes I can understand why you might try to be a little safer.

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    But the original point was that good shortstops weren't available in a trade and I was just pointing out that they were. (And Bauer already had substantial doubters - esp in his own org - at the time of the trade). So it still makes sense to take BPA and trade for a position of weakness rather than take a lesser player for your teams needs now.
    A couple of points. First, I think the game is changing/has changed from the late '90s and 00's where it was all about offensive ability. I think that we're seeing that finding a SS or C that can handle both the field and the bat is very difficult. Second, as salaries are rapidly rising and more players are choosing to forgo FA, because of the influx of new revenues especially by a few large markets, it seems that prospects are becoming more valuable and harder to acquire. I have no data to back up either of those assertions but that is my impression.

    If those are true, it is harder to find SS, C and great SP, and prospects are more valuable, then it stands to reason it will be exceptionally hard to trade for SS, C and SP prospects. You brought up 3 trades in recent years but all 3 involved high level talent in return. Look at the Span trade, a solid starting caliber CF with a very good contract brought back a single pitcher at the A-ball level.

    So, can you trade for these positions? Yes, but you have to be willing to give up a high value to obtain them.

    Shields to KC, we all know how that turned out. Fister a good #2/3 starter to the Nationals brought back Robbie Ray who is a 50-150 type prospect. Greinke to LA brought back a ~#50 SS prospect in Segura. Jake Peavy for Jose Iglesias but Peavy is a back half of the rotation guy now and Iglesias had some big questions about his bat. Can you think of any other trades of recent years that involved a very good SS, C or SP?


    I guess what I'm saying here is I think positional scarcity needs to be taken into account. There definitely seems to be some positions that are harder to find than others. That goes doubly so for SS and the Twins.

  13. #93
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    Sorry draft fans I forgot to push forward all the college player updates but I promise I will get them done tomorrow. For now draft nerds enjoy Chris Crawford's top 25 draft prospect board:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-board/

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Sorry draft fans I forgot to push forward all the college player updates but I promise I will get them done tomorrow. For now draft nerds enjoy Chris Crawford's top 25 draft prospect board:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-board/
    Brady Aiken sorta sounds like Lewis Thorpe - potential for 3 above avg pitches, lefty with deception.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Sorry draft fans I forgot to push forward all the college player updates but I promise I will get them done tomorrow. For now draft nerds enjoy Chris Crawford's top 25 draft prospect board:

    http://mlbdraftinsider.com/the-board/
    I like it. I'm a fan of those top 5.

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    I guess I'm not sure what you're getting at. If you want to have talent to trade for talent, you draft the BPA and then you can move him for the shortstop you don't have - like the Twins added three pitchers for Span and Revere. If Jackson turns out to be the BPA at #5 then the Twins should take him and, if he's blocked by Hicks, Buxton, Arcia, Kepler, Walker or whomever, they can make a trade.

    Shortstop prospects are traded all the time. Elite shortstop prospects are rarer trades but that's true because they are elite, not b/c they are shortstops (now, being a shortstop might make a player better in people's eyes simply based on positional scarcity and such - like the Gigi/Bauer trade). If the Twins continue to stockpile talent in the farm system they can make moves to fix areas they are deficient in, if needed.
    Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.

  17. #97
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    Draft prospect weekend recap.
    College Arms:
    Carlos Rodon-8 innings, 5 H, 3 ER, 9k, 2 BB. Stuff wasn't his best to start the game but ended strong.

    Sean Newcomb-5 innings, 3 hits, 0 ER, 9 K, 3 BB. Sat at 91-93 but hit 95. Breaking ball showed average+ potential.

    Jeff Hoffman- 6.2 innings, 5 H, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB. BA's scouting report:
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...wntown-downes/

    Also scouting quotes on Hoffman from Jim Callis:
    "About 60 percent of his pitches were really good, but 40 percent weren't," the director said. "The 40 percent that weren't got hit. Certain guys, when they're throwing 95-98 mph, they make a mistake and it gets fouled back or hit weakly. It seemed like when he missed at 95-96, they squared it up."

    "He flashed a 65-70 fastball, the changeup was really good and the curveball was good," the director said. "The changeup was outstanding, the best I've ever seen it. He threw a curveball and a slider. The slider was bad, but the curveball at times was pretty good, and others times it was a little spinner."

    Tyler Beede- 6 innings, 1 H, 1 ER, 11K, 1 BB. Showed best control of his career and 3 potential plus pitches.

    Aaron Nola: 7 innings, 0 H, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 BB. Two different scouts takes on Nola:
    Reported by Jim Callis:
    "He's the same as he was last year," a national crosschecker said. "He pitches in the 90-92 range with advanced polish, pitches to both sides of the plate and gets a lot of bad contact. His breaking ball keeps guys honest and I think his changeup will be better in pro ball because he'll use it more often.
    "I have a hard time imagining there's a better pitcher out there with a better combination of polish and stuff. I think he'll be a fast mover who gets to the big leagues quick."

    Reported by Chris Crawford:
    "The only reason he's not considered a lock to start is because of that [low arm] slot," an NL East scout said. "You just don't see a lot of starters work from that low, left- or right-handed. It's not a question of his stuff, he could be a solid No. 4; maybe a No. 3 based on his arsenal.

    "It's just going to take one team to think he's a starter to see him go early on day one. He's always shown he can throw strikes, but if he can show the kind of command he did (Friday)? He's certainly got a shot."

    Callis quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...k_mlb&c_id=mlb

    Chris Crawford's insider quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

    Last edited by cmb0252; 02-25-2014 at 01:48 PM.

  18. #98
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    Draft prospect weekend recap:
    College position players:

    Treat Turner- 10 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 1 RBI, 1K, 2 BB, 1 SB.

    Derek Fisher- 11 AB, 1 R, 4 H, 2 RBI, 0 K, BB. Law's take on Fisher-
    "UVa left fielder Derek Fisher is the team's best all-around prospect, a plus runner with power and bat speed but results that haven't matched his raw ability. A left-handed hitter, he did show a better approach in the two games against East Carolina, especially in going with pitches on the outer half to the opposite field, but it wasn't consistent from at-bat to at-bat."

    Max Pentecost- 15 AB, 2 R, 5 H, 4 RBI, 2K, 0 BB, 0 SB, 2B, HR.

    Kyle Schwarber- 16 AB, 3 R, 6 H, 3 RBI, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 SB, 3B, HR. Jim Call is had a scout tell him this about Schwarber after the tourney:

    "No question, he was definitely the best bat in the tournament," an area scout said. "He swung the bat well. I know he went 1-for-7, but he made hard contact all week, hit a monster home run and also hit a triple that kept going and going. Ten of us got him as an average runner down the line on one play, too."

    "He was a better catcher than I've ever seen him," the scout said. "He didn't box any balls, and nobody ran on him. I wouldn't say he looked great, but he looked really good. Will he stay there? I don't know."

    Callis quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140225&content_id=68310540&noteb ook_id=68310544&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

    Law insider quotes here (includes other prospect notes):

    http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1299

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  20. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Let me give you one example of how an even money SS for OF is rare. The Rangers refused to give up Profar for Justin Upton. These guys are not on the same level, but it speaks to the scarcity at the SS position, relative to OF.
    The other way of viewing that was that the Rangers were unwilling to trade the #1 prospect in baseball for Justin Upton. I get that there is some positional scarcity for real shortstops (which seems to be reflected in rankings - about 5 short stops were consistently ranked in the top 12 on most ranking systems). But my point when this started was that the Twins should take the BPA and worry about positions later. If Kolek is available at #5 and the Twins have him ranked above Turner, they shouldn't take Turner just b/c he represents a positional need.

  21. #100
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    I appreciate the positional scarcity argument but I don't want to trade offense for defense at no. 5. By every account I've read, and watching some video, Turner's a pretty small guy with limited offensive projectability. Everyone seems to agree on that. If we draft him and he stumbles through the minors, then we're back where we started: with another no hit slick fielding dime a dozen 8-9 hitter.

    I'd be ok targeting someone like that in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. But at 5, I want to see the Twins shoot a little higher. Biggest arm available, or biggest bat available, pick one. JMO

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