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Thread: 2014 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #961
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    I think 90% of this discussion has come down to a debate about floor and ceiling of each player considered at #5, and the risks and likelihood associated with them meeting the ceiling.

    Maybe a relevant discussion would be to get a list of players considered at #5 and a rough framework of how that player projects. For the sake of this, I don't want to get into the business of predicting injuries. It is certainly an implied risk with pitchers more than position players.

    Here is a quick overview of Aiken, based on about 10 minutes of research:

    Best asset - 6'4 lefty. His stuff right now is 65 FB, 60 curve, 60 change, 60 control.

    Ceiling - Front line starter, tall lefty with 2-3 plus pitches and a mid 90's fastball
    Floor - If the scout ratings above are correct (where he is right now), #2 starter, very good #3 starter with no improvement to these.
    Key Risk - He is a high school pitcher

    List of players considered:

    Aiken, Rodon, Freeland, Jackson, Gordon, Touki, Nola, and Kolek. I don't have time to look at them all
    Quick overview of Gordon.

    Best asset - Legitimate shortstop.

    Ceiling - League average offense, plus baserunning, plus defense at SS. Think Jimmy Rollins.
    Floor - Hit and power tools don't develop. Ends up as a no-hit utility infielder.
    Key Risk(s) - Will the bat/approach develop? It will be the difference between him becoming a starter or a backup. Will any power develop? Difference between him becoming an All Star or just a guy. Non-zero risk that he won't stick at short, but that is less of a risk than the questions about his bat.
    Wildcard - Hit 90+ with a decent curve. May be able to salvage career as a bullpen arm if everything else goes to hell.

  2. #962
    Twins Contributor All-Star Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
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    I'll take the J-Roll comp. I took a lot of crap yesterday with the Simmons comp. Offensively, they're relatively similar, though Gordon will never steal 40 bases or hit 30 home runs (both things Rollins did). But I think that's a fair assessment. I'd put Gordon's defensively ceiling higher than Rollins too...(but four Gold Gloves might be too much to ask). That's the thing with comps, they're never perfect.

    (Did you know that Rollins won a 2012 Gold Glove with a 0.0 dWAR?)

  3. #963
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I'll take the J-Roll comp. I took a lot of crap yesterday with the Simmons comp. Offensively, they're relatively similar, though Gordon will never steal 40 bases or hit 30 home runs (both things Rollins did). But I think that's a fair assessment. I'd put Gordon's defensively ceiling higher than Rollins too...(but four Gold Gloves might be too much to ask). That's the thing with comps, they're never perfect.

    (Did you know that Rollins won a 2012 Gold Glove with a 0.0 dWAR?)
    Jeremy, I think the "crap" yesterday got a little twisted. You said offensively he could become Simmons, I pointed out that Simmons bat isn't very impressive. Then others tried stating I didnt' see the value in Simmons, which is almost all based on his glove.

    If I came off as attacking your comp, that wasn't my point, sorry.

  4. #964
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    Miley McDaniel's new draft board:

    http://sbb.scout.com/story/1404313

  5. #965
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    Pentecost ahead of Jackson?

  6. #966
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    Quote Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan View Post
    Pentecost ahead of Jackson?
    I guess he likes the fact he is a true catcher. Pentecost has been killing the ball as of late and is a rare catcher who can steal bases.

  7. #967
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    I'll take the J-Roll comp. I took a lot of crap yesterday with the Simmons comp. Offensively, they're relatively similar, though Gordon will never steal 40 bases or hit 30 home runs (both things Rollins did). But I think that's a fair assessment. I'd put Gordon's defensively ceiling higher than Rollins too...(but four Gold Gloves might be too much to ask). That's the thing with comps, they're never perfect.

    (Did you know that Rollins won a 2012 Gold Glove with a 0.0 dWAR?)
    Good point about Rollins. The comp was focused on the normal Rollins seasons (10-20 HR, 30+ SB), not his 2006-2007 peak where he was hitting 25+ HRs with 40+ SB. I haven't seen anyone project Gordon with that kind of power. Though I don't think anyone projected Rollins to have that kind of power either.

  8. #968
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    Interestingly he has Justus Sheffield, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison and Michael Gettys lower than pick 46. I'm still inclined to think guys like this will be gone, but maybe the Twins will have a shot at one of these high upside HS kids.

  9. #969
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Interestingly he has Justus Sheffield, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison and Michael Gettys lower than pick 46. I'm still inclined to think guys like this will be gone, but maybe the Twins will have a shot at one of these high upside HS kids.
    The problem is that you need to pay them top 15 or top 20 money or else they usually go to college. With the new slotting system that means that the Twins need to go a lot underslot with their first pick.

  10. #970
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    The problem is that you need to pay them top 15 or top 20 money or else they usually go to college. With the new slotting system that means that the Twins need to go a lot underslot with their first pick.
    Going under slot at #5 isn't the only way. Kohl received a bonus right at slot last year and we still were able to give Gonslaves $700K, much more than his $460K slot. We did that primarily by giving only 40K to our 9th round pick. I understand Gonslaves was a 4th round pick, but you can be creative.

  11. #971
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Going under slot at #5 isn't the only way. Kohl received a bonus right at slot last year and we still were able to give Gonslaves $700K, much more than his $460K slot. We did that primarily by giving only 40K to our 9th round pick. I understand Gonslaves was a 4th round pick, but you can be creative.
    Try coming up with an extra 600K-1M using these methods. That's what they need to find to sign some of these overslot HS'ers.

  12. #972
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    How much is the #46 pick worth?

  13. #973
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    Quote Originally Posted by kab21 View Post
    Try coming up with an extra 600K-1M using these methods. That's what they need to find to sign some of these overslot HS'ers.
    The 46th pick is has a value of 1.21M. The 20th pick has a value of $2.03M. We came up with $240K in savings last year through later rounds. So we are $580K short. Last year Appel signed for $1.44M less than slot, Gray signed for $800K less than slot. Frazier signed for $280K less than slot. So not paying at slot at #5 and being creative in the later rounds seems feasible to me.

    The bigger issue is who will be available at #46? Houston and the Marlins have used this strategy in the past and have multiple picks before us, so do the Royals and Indians.

  14. #974
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    keep in mind that there's a certain overall percentage that you can go overslot with without penalty. That adds some wiggle room there.

  15. #975
    Senior Member Triple-A maxisagod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Interestingly he has Justus Sheffield, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison and Michael Gettys lower than pick 46. I'm still inclined to think guys like this will be gone, but maybe the Twins will have a shot at one of these high upside HS kids.
    All 3 I'd love at pick 46.

  16. #976
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    Callis answered a few questions about top prospects today. Here is a link:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

  17. #977
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    BA's new board:

    1. Aiken
    2. Kolek
    3. Rodon
    4. Jackson
    5. Freeland
    6. Hoffman
    7. Gordon
    8. Fedde
    9. Finnegan
    10. Nola

    Interesting board with Hoffman/Fedde still that high. Here is the link:

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

  18. #978
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    SI's mock draft is a bit different than most - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...kin/?eref=sihp

    Twins take Beede, Nola falls to #9, Gordon #10 and Gatewood goes #7 to Philly. But he does have Burdi going to Detroit.

  19. #979
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    Quote Originally Posted by gunnarthor View Post
    SI's mock draft is a bit different than most - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...kin/?eref=sihp

    Twins take Beede, Nola falls to #9, Gordon #10 and Gatewood goes #7 to Philly. But he does have Burdi going to Detroit.
    Wow....what an odd mock. A lot of strange picks.

  20. #980
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    That is a unique mock. Looking at the cover pic, Rodon should be the clear choice. Just think how good he could be after someone teaches him to pitch with his eyes open!


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