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Thread: Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Kohl Stewart

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by dakotanative View Post
    Let see...., Keith Law has a degree with honors from Harvard - sociology and economics and a masters degree in business admin. Does not appear to have ever played baseball much less coached it. No doubt about he is well qualified to scout players and to speculate on when they will arrive to the show. Personally I have no issues with Keith except he is a bit full of himself. One can look at all the baseball stats in the world and still not know what they are talking about or what they are seeing. Years ago when the debate about Moneyball school of baseball verses the "old school" raged, Keith consistently talked down the Twins for not embracing it. He always downgraded their prospects and the team as a whole. Did he have a point - yes. Did the Twins have a point - yes. Today we are seeing a blending of the sabermetrics approach with the good old fashion scouting and as a result our Twins are on a roll. The quality of the players, outside of the top 20, they have signed and are developing is amazing. When this next group of prospects hits the Show our Twins will be competitive for years to come as the farm system produces quality players to fill positions that become empty. To Keith's credit he did rank the Twins farm system quite high. However, a number of teams appear to court his favor and he tends to wax eloquent on their players. I do not see him ever being objective in regards to the Twins. Baring any serious setbacks Stewart will be in the Show in three years. Look at the trajectory of superior talent through out the years and they jump through their team's farm systems very quickly. If Stewart is a superior talent as they say he is, then he will be there sooner rather than later.
    Preaching to the choir with me. It is John who has sounded the alarm with this article- and the employment of a Trevor May comp. I hadn't heard any discussion to this point that taking Stewart was being construed by some as some sort of wild-eyed, cross your fingers and say a Hail Mary gamble of epic proportions.

    FWIW- I am still of the camp that barring injury, he gets a call-up in 2016, but if any of the information presented here has credence, then some folks out there are attempting to rewrite the narrative of Stewart's potential.

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star Badsmerf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dakotanative View Post
    Let see...., Keith Law has a degree with honors from Harvard - sociology and economics and a masters degree in business admin. Does not appear to have ever played baseball much less coached it. No doubt about he is well qualified to scout players and to speculate on when they will arrive to the show. Personally I have no issues with Keith except he is a bit full of himself. One can look at all the baseball stats in the world and still not know what they are talking about or what they are seeing. Years ago when the debate about Moneyball school of baseball verses the "old school" raged, Keith consistently talked down the Twins for not embracing it. He always downgraded their prospects and the team as a whole. Did he have a point - yes. Did the Twins have a point - yes. Today we are seeing a blending of the sabermetrics approach with the good old fashion scouting and as a result our Twins are on a roll. The quality of the players, outside of the top 20, they have signed and are developing is amazing. When this next group of prospects hits the Show our Twins will be competitive for years to come as the farm system produces quality players to fill positions that become empty. To Keith's credit he did rank the Twins farm system quite high. However, a number of teams appear to court his favor and he tends to wax eloquent on their players. I do not see him ever being objective in regards to the Twins. Baring any serious setbacks Stewart will be in the Show in three years. Look at the trajectory of superior talent through out the years and they jump through their team's farm systems very quickly. If Stewart is a superior talent as they say he is, then he will be there sooner rather than later.
    This is why we have a Keith Law Hates the Twins thread. However, he is hard to disagree with most of the time. He was rightfully down on the Twins when they were winning. The playoffs consistently showed why. I'm not a Klaw fan by any means, he is arrogant and takes the extreme to get a rise out of people.
    Do or do not. There is no try.

  3. #43
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    I put together a table of the recent top HS pitchers, and how they progressed through the minors. (Note: Year 1 is the first full season, so if the pitcher was drafted in 2007, Year 1 is 2008.)

    Draft Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
    Madison Bumgarner 2007 A A+ - AA - MLB AAA - MLB MLB
    Jarrod Parker 2007 A A+ - AA Injury AA - MLB AAA - MLB
    Matt Hobgood 2009 A Rk - A-/Injury Injury A - A+
    Zack Wheeler 2009 A A+ AA - AAA AAA - MLB
    Jacob Turner 2009 A - A+ AA - AAA - MLB A+ - AAA - MLB AAA - MLB
    Tyler Matzek 2009 A A - A+ A+ AA
    Matt Purke 2009 Injury Injury A / Injury A - A+
    Shelby Miller 2009 A A+ - AA AAA - MLB MLB
    Jameson Taillon 2010 A A+ - AA AA - AAA
    Dylan Bundy 2011 A - A+ - AA - MLB Injury
    Archie Bradley 2011 A A+ - AA
    Jose Fernandez 2011 A - A+ MLB
    Taylor Guerrieri 2011 A- A / Injury
    Robert Stephenson 2011 RK - A A - A+ - AA

    I expect this progression for Stewart:
    2014 - Entire season at Cedar Rapids
    2015 - Start season at Ft. Myer, promoted to New Britain.
    2016 - Start season at Rochester, promoted to majors.
    2017 - Start season with Twins.

    I think 2016 is the "best-case scenario" for Stewart reaching the majors. I don't think anyone is expecting him to force a rapid promotion like Bundy did, and I don't see the Twins aggressively promoting him like SF did with Bumgarner or Detroit did with Turner.

    If he hasn't reached the majors by year 5 (2018), that has to be a complete disappointment. Almost every (non-injured) pitcher on this list is definitely in line to reach the majors in 4 years - many of them much sooner. The only exception is Tyler Matzek, who only reached AA by year 4.

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  5. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    I put together a table of the recent top HS pitchers, and how they progressed through the minors. (Note: Year 1 is the first full season, so if the pitcher was drafted in 2007, Year 1 is 2008.)

    Draft Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
    Madison Bumgarner 2007 A A+ - AA - MLB AAA - MLB MLB
    Jarrod Parker 2007 A A+ - AA Injury AA - MLB AAA - MLB
    Matt Hobgood 2009 A Rk - A-/Injury Injury A - A+
    Zack Wheeler 2009 A A+ AA - AAA AAA - MLB
    Jacob Turner 2009 A - A+ AA - AAA - MLB A+ - AAA - MLB AAA - MLB
    Tyler Matzek 2009 A A - A+ A+ AA
    Matt Purke 2009 Injury Injury A / Injury A - A+
    Shelby Miller 2009 A A+ - AA AAA - MLB MLB
    Jameson Taillon 2010 A A+ - AA AA - AAA
    Dylan Bundy 2011 A - A+ - AA - MLB Injury
    Archie Bradley 2011 A A+ - AA
    Jose Fernandez 2011 A - A+ MLB
    Taylor Guerrieri 2011 A- A / Injury
    Robert Stephenson 2011 RK - A A - A+ - AA

    I expect this progression for Stewart:
    2014 - Entire season at Cedar Rapids
    2015 - Start season at Ft. Myer, promoted to New Britain.
    2016 - Start season at Rochester, promoted to majors.
    2017 - Start season with Twins.

    I think 2016 is the "best-case scenario" for Stewart reaching the majors. I don't think anyone is expecting him to force a rapid promotion like Bundy did, and I don't see the Twins aggressively promoting him like SF did with Bumgarner or Detroit did with Turner.

    If he hasn't reached the majors by year 5 (2018), that has to be a complete disappointment. Almost every (non-injured) pitcher on this list is definitely in line to reach the majors in 4 years - many of them much sooner. The only exception is Tyler Matzek, who only reached AA by year 4.
    Excellent post. Thanks for leg-working all of the good info. Top-end/top 5 pick HS guys, unless they have a major arm blow-out, should reasonably be expected to at least sniff the majors by Year 4.

    Your progression table for Stewart was exactly how I envision things occurring for him- even with the conservative approach from the Twins. That's why the OP was such a derailment of expectations.

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