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Thread: Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Kohl Stewart

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    Regarding the a good five years away from the majors. quote from Law, there is this little tidbit from Baseball America back in October:

    Closest To The Majors
    High School Players
    1. Kohl Stewart, rhp, Twins (1)
    2. Tyler Danish, rhp, White Sox (2)
    3. Hunter Harvey, rhp, Orioles (1)
    4. Austin Meadows, of, Pirates (1)
    5. Clint Frazier, of, Indians (1)

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...draft-classes/

    I think the take home message here is that no one knows how quickly Stewart is going to progress.
    Not only BA but Law's ESPN draft covering partner Christopher Crawford said the same thing. I find it odd that Law suggested it would take that long.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by markos View Post
    I think the take home message here is that no one knows how quickly Stewart is going to progress.
    Agreed. And I tend to think his #1 ranking on that list is mostly due to him being the highest pick of the bunch (although I understand the other guys are shuffled a bit).

  3. #23
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    He struck out 24 guys (both as a reliever and as a starter) and walked only four in 20 innings.
    Also, rookie league "starts" vs relief outings don't mean too much. His starts were 2, 3, and 4 innings in length.

    Basically, I am encouraged by the fact that it wasn't discouraging, but it was too small a sample and too low a level to tell anything, really. Remember Shooter Hunt? College pitcher, ~3 years older, but he pitched great in rookie league ball too...

  4. #24
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    Dont let it be said that the Twins are not willing to gamble when the opportunity presents itself.
    John, it was the draft. The "opportunity" was we were 4th on the board and he was the consensus 4th pick, and we "gambled" roughly the same amount on Stewart that we committed to pay Jamey Carroll for one season (a rebuilding season, no less).

    MLB draft picks are rarely risks or gambles, particularly now with a hard slotting system. Just tests of how discerning are your scouting eyes, really.

  5. #25
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    Wait, he has more upside than Gray (or even Appel)? Look, I loved the pick, and think he is this highly ranked, but calling him the highest upside arm in the draft seems a bit off.....

    As for ETA, I hope he's on the fast train.....arms tend to break down. The guys that don't are the exception. Do what the Marlins did, if he's this elite.

  6. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    John, it was the draft. The "opportunity" was we were 4th on the board and he was the consensus 4th pick, and we "gambled" roughly the same amount on Stewart that we committed to pay Jamey Carroll for one season (a rebuilding season, no less).

    MLB draft picks are rarely risks or gambles, particularly now with a hard slotting system. Just tests of how discerning are your scouting eyes, really.
    I'm not sure I totally agree. It's not really about "gambling" the money because, as you said, the amount of money pales compared to what MLB players of even moderate ability get. But the risk is more "opportunity risk."

    If you rely as much as the Twins do on organizational development, you can't afford to miss on a high 1st round pick when you get one. High velocity high school pitchers aren't always the safest picks. You don't want to go overboard on praising the Twins for the pick that so many people felt was clearly the right choice at #4, but it is a moderate gamble, imo.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

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  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    I'm not sure I totally agree. It's not really about "gambling" the money because, as you said, the amount of money pales compared to what MLB players of even moderate ability get. But the risk is more "opportunity risk."
    True. But as you allude to, it was kind of an obvious, consensus move. Only for the Twins would drafting the young high ceiling guy for slot money, while in the early stages of a rebuilding process, be called a "gamble". I call it "not doing something stupid".

    I feel like the same view creeps into MLB transactions too, so TR gets credit for being aggressive when he... pays market rates to add modest pitchers to a historically bad starting staff. I was glad to see the "record" FA contracts too but it was the minimum that he had to do, really. Drafting Stewart (and Buxton) were kind of the same thing.

    Still, very excited to have Stewart in the organization!

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  9. #28
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    With Stewart, there really wasn't a lot better out there. Sickles liked Frazier a bit better, but yeah, I just don't see this as a gamble. He was the best guy left, and could potentially end up being the best guy in this draft... who knows. Given his age, there was more risk there, but if they wanted less risk, they needed to lose more games.

  10. #29
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    As a person who follows the draft very closely I can tell you most kids coming out of HS are considered throwers over pitchers. Heck, some college guys are the same. Add in the fact Stewart focused mostly on football growing up and already has two plus pitches and two average pitches.....how many big leaguers have 4 average or above average pitches, much less, 18 year olds? There is alot to get excited about here. As I say this I have been leading the Stewart bandwagon since seeing him in person last year.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    If Stewart is a top prospect, I've ran some queries for high school pitchers and it would seem if he's going to be a 4+ WAR a year type of pitcher, he'll be up in 3.7 years or less. If he's going to be below 4 WAR it'll take longer than the 3.7 years. If he takes more than 6 years, he'll be lucky to put up 8 career WAR and would most likely be a reliever/spot starter. The 6 years also factors in lost time to injury (left it in as it often affects pitching performance). 3.7 years is May 2017 for those of your keeping track at home.
    ^^^^ This.

    If Stewart is not up until 2018-9, he should not be ranked as the 4th best prospect in this system.

    I think that 2016 is more realistic.
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  12. #31
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    This young man has unlimited potential and this summer will be like no other. The reason, this fall he didn't have any 290 lb defensive linemen trying to knock his teeth out. He's been free to work on his baseball exclusively. By September we should have a little better idea of how quickly he will be prepared to progress through the minors

  13. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    ^^^^ This.

    If Stewart is not up until 2018-9, he should not be ranked as the 4th best prospect in this system.

    I think that 2016 is more realistic.
    Let me add my "This" to this, as well as acknowledging your "^^^^This" to that.

    "This" is good commonsense reasoning...... barring major injury, and based on other teams developmental experience in past similar draft position for potential Ace high school arms, many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016, moving up 2 levels per season, with perhaps a short repeat of AAA in the spring/early summer of 2016.

    Again, James Shields worked his way up through 6 minor league years, including 3 years when his MLB future was in great doubt, but he was a 16th round draft choice:


    Ranked as #27 Rays prospect after his fiirst season, 2001, age 19.
    Injured, out all of 2002 season.
    Ranked as #31 Rays prospect after his third season, 2003, age 21.
    Ranked as #31 Rays prospect after his fourth season, 2004, age 22.
    Ranked as #12 Rays prospect after his fifth season, 2005, age 23.
    Ranked as preseason #10 International League prospect, 2006, age 24.


    ..... Stewart isn't Shields.....
    there are much different expectations for a Top 4 overall pick and the #4 prospect in an organization with 2 of the best prospects in baseball ahead of him on the Twins list who deserve having top-flite pitching accompanying their own rise to the majors.

    If Stewart isn't on the prudently-managed, but still fasttrack developmental curve, with a 2016/2017 objective for his MLB debut, something's wrong here.

  14. #33
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    D/P

  15. #34
    "many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016"

    I believe he will be 21 for all of the 2016 season. Last year was considered a rather weak draft class. So over the last 10 years or so, how many high school pitchers drafted in the top 7-8 spots were called up by age 21?

    I don't know the answer. Just trying to assess the reasonableness of that expectation in light of past experience.

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  17. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimv2 View Post
    "many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016"

    I believe he will be 21 for all of the 2016 season. Last year was considered a rather weak draft class. So over the last 10 years or so, how many high school pitchers drafted in the top 7-8 spots were called up by age 21?

    I don't know the answer. Just trying to assess the reasonableness of that expectation in light of past experience.
    Go over to the Hulet article, where the author posits that there is a trend for clubs to move their top end pitchers through the developmental phase faster and are willing to put up with a year or two with a top prospect performing at a 5th starter level, so as to theoretically take advantage of having more of their potential top-performing years under cost-controlled scenarios, plus the big club can keep closer tabs on the health and mechanical issues when with the major league club. (Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson and Jose Fernandez come quickly to mind,and that was just 2011).

  18. #36
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    Given recent history, I can't help but wonder if he should just get TJ surgery now and be done with it. JK

  19. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Go over to the Hulet article, where the author posits that there is a trend for clubs to move their top end pitchers through the developmental phase faster and are willing to put up with a year or two with a top prospect performing at a 5th starter level, so as to theoretically take advantage of having more of their potential top-performing years under cost-controlled scenarios, plus the big club can keep closer tabs on the health and mechanical issues when with the major league club. (Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson and Jose Fernandez come quickly to mind,and that was just 2011).
    I understand the rest of it, but don't get "take advantage of having more of their potential top-performing years under cost-controlled scenarios". You use up a year of control every year they pitch in the bigs. If the guy will eventually be a one or two, it seems you get more of his one/towo years if you hold off promoting than if you waste a year having him be a 5.

  20. #38
    I don't like the reports of his diva-like attitude. Maybe it makes me *too* Minnesotain, but arrogance isn't a trait I hold high

  21. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Up to 6 years to begin (to only possibly) getting dividends on a high-end first round pick?

    For an athlete of this level?

    The fact that he wasn't a baseball-first guy was sold as a good thing.

    Something seems askew here with this transaction- definitely not the type of high-end pick in the Twins standard MO. I don't remember any discussion of this "crudeness" in his form leading up to, and right after, draft day- this whole deal now sounds a lot more speculative than last June. And a comp with Trevor May? By Trevor's own admission, he isn't the greatest athlete.

    Again, a truly great athlete like Stewart should respond more quickly to a training regimen than 6 years to refine and master his motion and strengthen his arm, especially if he already has 4 pitches in his repertoire to varying degrees of success and effectiveness. Let the grumbling begin.....and apparently, start looking for yet another high-upside arm next June

    Let see...., Keith Law has a degree with honors from Harvard - sociology and economics and a masters degree in business admin. Does not appear to have ever played baseball much less coached it. No doubt about he is well qualified to scout players and to speculate on when they will arrive to the show. Personally I have no issues with Keith except he is a bit full of himself. One can look at all the baseball stats in the world and still not know what they are talking about or what they are seeing. Years ago when the debate about Moneyball school of baseball verses the "old school" raged, Keith consistently talked down the Twins for not embracing it. He always downgraded their prospects and the team as a whole. Did he have a point - yes. Did the Twins have a point - yes. Today we are seeing a blending of the sabermetrics approach with the good old fashion scouting and as a result our Twins are on a roll. The quality of the players, outside of the top 20, they have signed and are developing is amazing. When this next group of prospects hits the Show our Twins will be competitive for years to come as the farm system produces quality players to fill positions that become empty. To Keith's credit he did rank the Twins farm system quite high. However, a number of teams appear to court his favor and he tends to wax eloquent on their players. I do not see him ever being objective in regards to the Twins. Baring any serious setbacks Stewart will be in the Show in three years. Look at the trajectory of superior talent through out the years and they jump through their team's farm systems very quickly. If Stewart is a superior talent as they say he is, then he will be there sooner rather than later.

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  23. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by orangevening View Post
    I don't like the reports of his diva-like attitude. Maybe it makes me *too* Minnesotain, but arrogance isn't a trait I hold high
    Number of sources I've heard call him a "diva":

    1. You.





    I'm going to go ahead and reserve judgment until I hear something real.

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