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Thread: Article: TD Top Prospects: #6 Jose Berrios

  1. #21
    Senior Member Triple-A Paul Pleiss's Avatar
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    I am a noted Berrios hater. Or maybe that's too strong a word, but I'm not very excited about Berrios. Maybe its prospect fatigue. Maybe I see too many other arms in the system that I think are better, that have more MLB potential. J.O. Berrios just doesn't do it for me. I hope I'm wrong, I hope he can become a successful part of future Twins teams, I just don't buy it.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Pleiss View Post
    I am a noted Berrios hater. Or maybe that's too strong a word, but I'm not very excited about Berrios. Maybe its prospect fatigue. Maybe I see too many other arms in the system that I think are better, that have more MLB potential. J.O. Berrios just doesn't do it for me. I hope I'm wrong, I hope he can become a successful part of future Twins teams, I just don't buy it.
    I sort of agree with you. The thread is premised around Berrios being the #6 prospect, but there was considerable concern about whether he would succeed as a starter. Yet coming in at #7 is Pinto, where in his thread it is implied that he will be the regular catcher for years. Pinto has played for the Twins (and has displayed considerable success) while Berrios "slowed-down" at Cedar Rapids--in the old days Class "B" ball. Something is fishy.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Jose Abreu, Eric Johnson and Micah Johnson cast dissenting votes from the WhiteSox.
    I believe most rankers would say that Eric Johnson might be a tad better or worse than Berrios. Abreu doesn't qualify, and Micah Johnson makes mybe one or two top 100 lists. Berrios is ranked anywhere dfrom #49 to 125 on the lists I've seen. Most recently, I believe Baseball Prospectus ranked seven Twins prospects before the first (and only) White Sox prospect, and I don't recall that it was either of these two Johnsons.

    At any rate, jokin, Baseball Prospectus is highly credible, so I'll take the dissenting votes from these White Sox prospects with a huge grain of salt.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    I believe most rankers would say that Eric Johnson might be a tad better or worse than Berrios. Abreu doesn't qualify, and Micah Johnson makes mybe one or two top 100 lists. Berrios is ranked anywhere dfrom #49 to 125 on the lists I've seen. Most recently, I believe Baseball Prospectus ranked seven Twins prospects before the first (and only) White Sox prospect, and I don't recall that it was either of these two Johnsons.

    At any rate, jokin, Baseball Prospectus is highly credible, so I'll take the dissenting votes from these White Sox prospects with a huge grain of salt.
    Eric Johnson has the build of a Starter, and he jumped 3 levels, with success and every indication that he's knocking down the door to become the Sox #3 starter, and hasn't hit his ceiling yet. When ranking guys, I prefer a guy with the physical stature for the job and all the indications that he's beating the door down to get in the league. Maybe Berrios will make a big move this year or next, but like the 2 previous posters, until he proves different, he currently has all the makings of a good reliever.

    And why doesn't Abreu count? Many scouting services have him ranked as the top Sox propsect, and he certainly would qualify for ROY, so again I ask, why not?

    Regarding Micah Johnson, here's another guy that not only played through 3 levels in 2013, he was also the MVP of the Southern League playoffs- giving the Sox a AA League Pennant from their supposedly "weak farm system" (how many playoffs did the Twins win again?)...all that for Johnson, despite barely playing for Birmingham at AA beforehand, batting .450 in the series. Oh, he also stole 85 bases on the season. Sign me up for guys who fly through a system and lead their team to a championship.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    He might possibly be regarded as the White Sox' best prospect and would rank as the best pitching prospect were he in either Detroit's or Cleveland's system I think.
    jokin, I have no argument against your love for Micah Johnson or Eric Johnson. If I had an opinion it would be valueless.

    The above statement about Berrios is supported by the rankings from MLB, Bullpen Banter, Sickles, Baseball Prospectus, and Top Prospect Alert.

    None of them ranked Abreu. Most of them did not rank Micah Johnson. The question was simply, where might Berrios rank in other systems, and I shared what I knew the experts were saying about teams in the division. You perhaps disagree with these experts, which is fine by me.

  6. #26
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    Yeah, I see where you both are coming from and with good arguments on both sides. Of course experts are right 50% of the time which is much better than the amateur posters who are only right half the time.

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  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    jokin, I have no argument against your love for Micah Johnson or Eric Johnson. If I had an opinion it would be valueless.

    The above statement about Berrios is supported by the rankings from MLB, Bullpen Banter, Sickles, Baseball Prospectus, and Top Prospect Alert.

    None of them ranked Abreu. Most of them did not rank Micah Johnson. The question was simply, where might Berrios rank in other systems, and I shared what I knew the experts were saying about teams in the division. You perhaps disagree with these experts, which is fine by me.
    So we can agree that, the many services that do rank Abreu as a higher prospect are likely correct in their assessment.

    From your own words, "most rankers would say that Eric Johnson is a tad better or a tad worse than Berrios." This seems to validate why Johnson might voice a dissenting vote, especially since he has already had great success in AAA and already passed his September MLB cameo with flying colors.

    On Micah Johnson, that was my own wild card, that I threw in for fun. He looks to potentially be the Sox's version of Brian Dozier, both 2B, mid-round college guys that look solid, but whose ceiling is undeterminable, until it isn't.

    Dozier was 23 playing A level, where he hit .278/.347/.338/.685 and got promoted anyway, and kept improving his numbers. at each successive level.

    Johnson by contrast, just started his 2013 year out at A level at a year younger, age 22, where he hit .342/.422/.530/.952, got promoted 2 levels in-season, and dominated the AA Southern League playoffs winning the MVP. And he beat out Billy Hamilton as the Stolen Base leader, with 85 SBs.

    So not a power guy, but potentially a very dynamic player who forces his way onto and up the prospect ranking ladder. Hopefully, Berrios makes the same kind of jump in the next couple of years, but it looks like it's going to take mastery of another pitch for him to realize his current lofty ranking.

  9. #28
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    I take your word for it, jokin. No opinion and no skin in the game here. Produce a top 100. I'll throw it on the spreadsheet with Sickles, Law and the other experts. Then my answer would have been: "Berrios would probably be ranked by most as the best pitcher in the Cleveland and Detroit system and one of the two or three top prospects in Chicago's system."

    Hope this is satisfactory with you, Eric Johnson, and any other dissenters of the experts' rankings.

  10. #29
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    For me, the jury is out. But there weren't a lot of 19 year olds in the MWL last year. The fact that he was a solid and occasionally spectacular starter against guys two years older than him means he has a high ceiling. Whether that ceiling is as a starter or reliever is the big question for me. The doubt about starting is why I don't rank him this high. I have him behind Thorpe and May. Still, he's a top 10 prospect in the system in my book. Even if he becomes a reliever, he has closer upside.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    For me, the jury is out. But there weren't a lot of 19 year olds in the MWL last year. The fact that he was a solid and occasionally spectacular starter against guys two years older than him means he has a high ceiling. Whether that ceiling is as a starter or reliever is the big question for me. The doubt about starting is why I don't rank him this high. I have him behind Thorpe and May. Still, he's a top 10 prospect in the system in my book. Even if he becomes a reliever, he has closer upside.
    This is right about where I'm at with JB, but I still have my doubts about how much propsect stature to give to a potential closer. The Sulbaran comparison to Berrios in 2013 didn't exactly strengthen his case, and 2013, while maybe not a step backward for Berrios, still has to give pause to those still granting him his still-lofty status as a future MLB starter:


    Both 19 (and within 2 months of each other in age)
    Both 2nd year of professional baseball
    Similar in stature
    2013 stats in A ball-


    Sulbaran- 113 IP/2.96 ERA/2.71 FIP/1.26 WHIP/8.1 K*9/3.16 K*BB
    Berrios- 103 IP/3.99 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.40 WHIP/8.7 K*9/2.50 K*BB


    It's very early, to be certain (A-ball numbers have to taken with a grain of salt from a 19 year old, I fully acknowledge that), but if a "smallish" 1st Rd. pick expects he's on his way to an MLB starting rotation, he is going to have to start putting up some superior standout numbers in the next 2 years if he's going to stay on the starting track, certainly superior to an unheralded guy who was acquired for Drew Butera. Even maintaining this 4.00ERA/3.44 FIP with K/inning numbers over the next 2 levels has "reliever" written all over it.

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  13. #31
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Don't forget that Berrios' season last year was complicated by being part of the Puerto Rican team at the World Baseball Classic. He worked out of the bullpen there and didn't get much work. Then he was in extended spring for quite a while before going to the Midwest League and pitching for the Kernels. This year will be more ordered and routine. I expect he will be in Fort Myers for Spring Training and stay there as a member of the Miracle until at least midseason. I hope he gets a taste of AA after that. We should have a lot better idea of his ceiling and his role by the conclusion of 2014. I met JO at Cedar Rapids last year and I thought him to be all of six feet tall. He seems like a pleasant young man and he has a firm RH handshake FWIW.

  14. #32
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    This is right about where I'm at with JB, but I still have my doubts about how much propsect stature to give to a potential closer. The Sulbaran comparison to Berrios in 2013 didn't exactly strengthen his case, and 2013, while maybe not a step backward for Berrios, still has to give pause to those still granting him his still-lofty status as a future MLB starter:


    Both 19 (and within 2 months of each other in age)
    Both 2nd year of professional baseball
    Similar in stature
    2013 stats in A ball-


    Sulbaran- 113 IP/2.96 ERA/2.71 FIP/1.26 WHIP/8.1 K*9/3.16 K*BB
    Berrios- 103 IP/3.99 ERA/3.44 FIP/1.40 WHIP/8.7 K*9/2.50 K*BB


    It's very early, to be certain (A-ball numbers have to taken with a grain of salt from a 19 year old, I fully acknowledge that), but if a "smallish" 1st Rd. pick expects he's on his way to an MLB starting rotation, he is going to have to start putting up some superior standout numbers in the next 2 years if he's going to stay on the starting track, certainly superior to an unheralded guy who was acquired for Drew Butera. Even maintaining this 4.00ERA/3.44 FIP with K/inning numbers over the next 2 levels has "reliever" written all over it.
    I guess I need to revisit my ranking on Sulbaran. If Berrios is at #10 on my list, he should be in the low teens based on his 19-year-old numbers and his handedness. Also, we got him for Drew Butera? What a steal.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  15. #33
    Senior Member Triple-A Don't Feed the Greed Guy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell View Post
    I met JO at Cedar Rapids last year and I thought him to be all of six feet tall. He seems like a pleasant young man and he has a firm RH handshake FWIW.
    FWIW--I think means "for what it's worth." As a fan, Stringer Bell identified two primary reasons to root for JO Berrios, IMHO. I've mastered that acronym, in my budding knowledge of "text speak."

    Regarding prospects, it's hard to "love" or "hate" a kid who is still a prospect. It's hard for a fan who casts theories from 30,000 feet above the strike zone to render a whole lot of emotional attachment anywhere on this site. But this is why I like the kid:

    1. He is only 6'0", perhaps more or less, depending on what shoes he happens to be wearing when my boy asks for his autograph from over the third base wall. My boy is the smallest kid in his class, so he naturally cheers louder for the Dustin Pedroia types.

    Like Stringer's handshake with JO, I had the opportunity to meet Rich Harden before he signed with the Twins, and tried that ill-fated comeback last season. Nice try. I wish it would have worked out.

    My encounter with Harden was over a baptismal font--eye-to-eye. I'm 5'11'' in wing-tips, FWIW. From a human interest story, it was fascinating to discover that this RHP of average height is just one of 48 pitchers to strike out the side with only nine pitches, when Oakland faced the Los Angeles Angels at the Coliseum on June 8, 2008. In the top of the first inning, Harden fanned Macier Izturis, Howie Kendrick and Garret Anderson. Oakland beat Los Angeles, 7-3. Harden pitched 6 innings, striking out 9. He did not get the win. Still, pretty good for a short guy...

    2. I love the video that Parker posted above, capturing the family/community celebration that erupted when the Twins drafted JO. "Arms in a 'V', high-fives, hugs, and tears."

    Beauty, IMHO. That's why I am a fan. That's why I will be cheering for this pleasant young man with a firm RH handshake. That is all.

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  17. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by birdwatcher View Post
    He might possibly be regarded as the White Sox' best prospect and would rank as the best pitching prospect were he in either Detroit's or Cleveland's system I think.
    BA just came out, and came to a much different conclusion, despite protestations to the contrary, it comes with Jose Abreu premiering at #29, Eric Johnson @ #63 and 2 more White Sox players (not Micah Johnson?), but no Berrios.

    Trevor Bauer made it for Cleveland.

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