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Thread: Personal Top Prospect Lists

  1. #1

    Personal Top Prospect Lists

    With the season coming up and everyone getting excited with the new prospect rankings that are coming out, I am curious to see how the insiders and non insiders alike rank the Twins prospects (or even top prospects around baseball). The lists could be top 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 50, whatever floats your boast really. I was bored the other day and made a top 65 list (which ended with just a lot of gut feeling for the second half of the list), saw mistakes and forgot Lewen Diaz, thus I created a new top 66. I will only post the top 30, because anything after that is really up in the air for all we know. There are also some notes and explanations in the parenthesis.

    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer
    4. Kohl Stewart
    5. Eddie Rosario
    6. Jorge Polanco (watching video of him hitting is a beautiful thing)
    7. Jose Berrios
    8. Lewis Thorpe
    9. Max Kepler
    10. Josmil Pinto
    11. Stephen Gonsalves
    12. Travis Harrison
    13. Jorge Felix
    14. Trevor May
    15. Danny Santana
    16. Stuart Turner
    17. Sean Gilmartin (proximity to MLB & a relativley high floor)
    18. Michael Tonkin
    19. Kennys Vargas
    20. Zach Jones
    21. Ryan Eades
    22. Amuarys Minier
    23. A. J. Achter (Proximity to MLB & recent success on this one)
    24. Adam Brett Walker
    25. Mason Melotakis
    26. Fernando Romero
    27. D. J. Baxendale (high floor)
    28. Logan Darnell (proximity to MLB)
    29. D. J. Hicks
    30. Yorman Landa

    Note: Randy Rosario was just out of the top 30, Diaz/Bard/Navaretto need more playing time to judge, and Niko Goodrum was just out, but a good season would shoot him up the list.
    Last edited by the_youngster; 02-05-2014 at 11:51 PM.

  2. #2
    Twins Moderator All-Star diehardtwinsfan's Avatar
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    You'll see them from time to time. I put one together towards the end of last season. It's interesting to see what people value. I tend to value results a bit more than most, so I had Logan Darnell, Vargas, and Walker much higher up on my list, and Kepler a bit lower. There really isn't a right or wrong way to do it (unless you want to go back and grade the lists later to see who made it and who didn't, but even that is a bit subjective).

  3. #3
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    I published my Top 15 over at Knuckleballs back in November. You can click here for the post if you want to know my rationale for Meyer at #1 or for not including Santana, etc. If I had to do it over now, I might drop Rosario a bit in light of the 50-game suspension he's facing, since I do believe that affects his likely ETA. Gilmartin hadn't been acquired yet and would be considered now.

    1. Meyer
    2. Buxton
    3. Sano
    4. Rosario
    5. Stewart
    6. Berrios
    7. Pinto
    8. Polanco
    9. Kepler
    10. Walker
    11. Thorpe
    12. May
    13. Harrison
    14. Gonsalves
    15. Sulbaran
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

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    Senior Member Triple-A Steve Lein's Avatar
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    1. Buxton - Tool Shed.
    2. Sano - #PowerBanana
    3. Meyer - Staff Ace.
    4. Stewart - Phenom.
    5. Rosario - Will hit enough to play wherever.
    6. Berrios - Almost feel like this is too high on him for me at this point, but whatevs.
    7. Kepler - I'm a big believer.
    8. Polanco - Won't stick at SS, but guys who can hit find a spot, and I think he can.
    9. Thorpe - Lefty in the 90's and growing? Sign me up.
    10. Pinto - Should be a decent bat, but if he can't call a game...

    Just Missed: May, Santana, Turner, Gonsalves. And I would have Gibson (7), Hicks (8), and Arcia (4) all in this list if not graduated.
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

  5. #5
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    My top 40 off-season are here.
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  6. #6
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    TOP 30 Prospect Rankings 2014
    1. Byron Buxton (Called up in September - handles struggles)
    2. Miguel Sano (MLB starter by July)
    3. Alex Meyer (MLB Starter off and on in 2014)
    4. Kohl Stewart (Midwest League All Star)
    5. Eddie Rosario (still great hitter - despite bad judgement)
    6. Josmil Pinto (MLB starter by July)
    7. Trevor May (Breakout year - future reliever)
    8. Lewis Thorpe (High upside)
    9. Adam Brett Walker (Higher OBP w/25+ HRs & 20+ SB's)
    10. Jorge Polanco (4 SB / 4 CS - Is speed a tool?)
    11. Max Kepler (Must hit LHP better - but great swing)
    12. Jose Berrios (When bad - very bad & vice cersa)
    13. Stephen Gonsalves (Sleeper in 2014 - better than Stewart)
    14. Zach Jones (Less BB's this year - gets to AAA)
    15. Danny Santana (Consistency will come in 2014 defensively)
    16. Kennys Vargas (Gets to AAA in 2014 - continues to hit)
    17. Travis Harrison (Defense keeps getting better + Power Year)
    18. Stuart Turner (Fast mover in 2014)
    19. Ryan Eades (Won't be flashy - but will win)
    20. Taylor Rogers (People need to recognize - Throws strikes)
    21. Brett Lee (Knows how to pitch & compete to win)
    22. Mason Melotakis (Will end up a strong LH reliever in system)
    23. Dalton Hicks (Just gets it done - solid defender @ 1st)
    24. Jorge Felix (Solid potential & upside)
    25. Niko Goodrum (Consistent Defense in 2014)
    26. Tim Shibuya (Excellent stuff as a reliever)
    27. D. J. Baxendale (high floor - must rebound from AA)
    28. Miguel Sulbaran (More consistent than Berrios)
    29. Tyler Jones (Not many in system with better stuff)
    30. Matt Thomshaw (Super Sleeper - 5 Pitches - Hits corners)

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Crikket View Post
    I published my Top 15 over at Knuckleballs back in November. You can click here for the post if you want to know my rationale for Meyer at #1 or for not including Santana, etc. If I had to do it over now, I might drop Rosario a bit in light of the 50-game suspension he's facing, since I do believe that affects his likely ETA. Gilmartin hadn't been acquired yet and would be considered now.

    1. Meyer
    2. Buxton
    3. Sano
    4. Rosario
    5. Stewart
    6. Berrios
    7. Pinto
    8. Polanco
    9. Kepler
    10. Walker
    11. Thorpe
    12. May
    13. Harrison
    14. Gonsalves
    15. Sulbaran
    I am surprised that most people seem to want to rank Meyer third. I would rank him above Sano but not above Buxton, just because guys like him are so hard and expensive to find.

  9. #8
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I am surprised that most people seem to want to rank Meyer third. I would rank him above Sano but not above Buxton, just because guys like him are so hard and expensive to find.
    Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.
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    Twins Moderator MVP ashburyjohn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.
    Meyer strikes me as the one of our three most likely to wind up embarrassed by that comparison in the fullness of time, but of course all three could, and conversely for any of them to actually achieve rough parity with their comp will be awesome.

  12. #10
    Yeah I try to balance my evaluations by accompanying all of the major focus pints: results, upside, proximity to MLB, with a dash of gut feeling (I also will acknowledge guys with lower floors who likely will reach the majors, ala Gilmartin).

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  14. #11
    Thrylos, I like how you ranked Zach Larson at 36. He is a guy I really look forward to seeing grow. I wanted to rank him higher in my full list (ended up at 61), but with another season to gauge, I think he could reach up there in future lists.

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I am surprised that most people seem to want to rank Meyer third. I would rank him above Sano but not above Buxton, just because guys like him are so hard and expensive to find.
    I kind of explained my rationale in the post at Knuckleballs, but while I think Buxton is amazing and the sky is the limit for him, I moved Meyer to the top spot because a true, legitimate ACE is what this team needs more than anything else to become a championship caliber team. Meyer has that potential and he's closer to delivering on it at the MLB level than Buxton is.

    Thrylos, your Trout-Cabrera-Verlander comparison is a pretty good analogy. Look at the talent on the field surrounding Trout, but he hasn't sniffed a championship and right now it doesn't look like he will for at least a couple years. Would Cabrera have been to a WS in Detroit without Verlander? I just think top of the rotation pitching is the difference maker when it comes to being World Series contenders.

    But here's the cool thing: IF all 3 of these guys reach their potential (which isn't assured, but isn't outside the realm of possibility, either), the Twins could have what amounts to a Trout-Cabrera-Verlander combination, all in their primes, for a pretty significant stretch of time in the second half of this decade.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

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    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    Rewind a couple seasons and think AL MVP: Who would you vote for MVP: Trout, Cabrera or Verlander? You got 3 comparables here.
    Like I wrote above, these are good comparables. What I don't agree with though, is posing the question as one of, "Who would you vote for MVP." Like many of the actual voters, I tend to think that pitchers have their own award, the Cy Young, so it would take a once-in-a-generation kind of season from a pitcher for me to put him at the top of my MVP ballot.

    The question I would pose is something more along the lines of, "If you were to put together a team specifically for the purpose of winning multiple World Series, which of these guys would you pick first (assuming you were going to get to keep them through the first several years of their careers)?"
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

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    Senior Member Triple-A
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    My criteria is weighted like this: 1) Potential MLB production 2) Proximity to MLB 3) MiLB production

    1. Byron Buxton

    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Alex Meyer - proximity almost pushes him to Sano.
    4. Kohl Stewart - difference between he and Meyer is proximity to MLB
    5. Eddie Rosario
    6. Josmil Pinto - edges out Polanco due to proximity to MLB
    7. Jorge Polanco
    8. Lewis Thorpe - lefty has high potential
    9. Stephen Gonsalves - see Thorpe
    10. Max Kepler - lots of potential, but results needed soon
    11. Jose Berrios - MLB potential drops him for me
    12. Trevor May - proximity to MLB helps here
    13. Jorge Felix
    14. Danny Santana - lots of tools. Big upside
    15. Stuart Turner - Defensive standout to move quickly. Hit tool not terrible.
    16. Adam Brett Walker - MiLB production too hard to ignore
    17. Mason Melotakis - potential is there. Health, not so much.
    18. Kennys Vargas - See AB Walker
    19. Sean Gilmartin
    20. Michael Tonkin - has makings of a future closer
    21. Zach Jones

    22. Ryan Eades
    23. Amuarys Minier - has potential, but hasn't shown great production.
    24. Travis Harrison - not sold on his hit tool and defense is suspect.
    25. Randy Rosario
    26. Daniel Bard - see Mason Melotakis; not ready to give up on him yet.
    27. D. J. Baxendale
    28. D. J. Hicks
    29. Logan Darnell - MiLB results, but may have limited MLB upside.
    30. JT Chargois - mid-90's fireballer has to get healthy. High potential.

  19. #15
    Senior Member All-Star Jim Crikket's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siehbiscuit View Post
    17. Mason Melotakis - potential is there. Health, not so much.
    Maybe I'm having a senior moment, but what's the concern with Melotakis' health? He was fine all season in CR. They moved him to the pen late in the year, but that was due to caution over the innings he had throw in his first year as a starting pitcher after being a closer in college.
    I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

    ~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

  20. #16
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Great lists: Mine is not that different

    1. Buxton
    2. Sano
    3. Meyer
    4. Stewart
    5. Thorpe
    6. Rosario
    7. May
    8. Polanco
    9. Kepler
    10. Berrios
    11. Pinto
    12. Gonsalves
    13. Santana
    14. Harrison
    15. Walker
    16. Felix
    17. Turner
    18. Melotakis
    19. Jones
    20. Tonkin
    21. Eades
    22. Minier
    23. Vargas
    24. Darnell
    25. Gilmartin
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  21. #17
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer
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    Love the lists, thanks. The depth of the system may be underrated. On the lists I've tracked, 22 different prospects have made someone's top 10 this year and last; 49 have made someone's Top 25. Gilmartin can barely make a top 25 with us, and where did he rank last year with his former team? Top 10 guy I think.

  22. #18
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    I've been messing around in Excel trying to create an "objective," numbers based prospect ranking list using fielding (including positional adjustment) and career and peak hitting performance for hitters, and velocity, number of pitches, K/9 rate, and career and peak FIP for pitchers, as well as incorporating proximity to the majors and age vs. level of competition. It's not perfect, or scientific by any means, just me messing around to see what's possible, but here is what it's turned up. D.J. Baxendale, A.J. Achter and Logan Darnell are the big surprises for me, but other than that, it looks like a lot of the lists that I have seen around here before.

    1. Byron Buxton
    2. Miguel Sano
    3. Eddie Rosario
    4. Kohl Stewart
    5. Alex Meyer
    6. Lewis Thorpe
    7. Stephen Gonsalves
    8. Jose Berrios
    9. Jorge Polanco
    10. D.J. Baxendale
    11. Josmil Pinto
    12. Miguel Sulbaran
    13. Trevor May
    14. Max Kepler
    15. Sean Gilmartin
    16. Felix Jorge
    17. Logan Darnell
    18. Zach Jones
    19. A.J. Achter
    20. Randy Rosario
    21. Daniel Santana
    22. Travis Harrison
    23. Ryan Eades
    24. Fernando Romero
    25. Michael Tonkin
    26. Kennys Vargas
    27. Yorman Landa
    28. Dan Rohlfing
    29. Tyler Duffey
    30. Lester Oliveros

  23. #19
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    I always enjoy looking at prospect lists, be it Twins or top 100, so thanks everyone for sharing. One thing I have noticed on all these lists in my opinion is how low Ryan Eades is. I feel a lot of people are down grading him for 15 bad innings of professional ball after a very long college year. He was spent before he even got there.
    Last edited by cmb0252; 02-07-2014 at 03:16 PM.

  24. #20
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    I always enjoy looking at prospect lists, be it Twins or top 100, so thanks everyone for sharing. One thing I have noticed on all these lists in my opinion is how low Ryan Eades is. I feel a lot of people are down grading him for 15 bad innings of professional ball after a very long college year. He spent before he even got there.
    Jim Callis was actually pretty high on him, during his chat with the Talk to Contact podcasts guys. Callis projected Eades a number three starter.

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