02-05-2014, 03:03 PM #21
02-05-2014, 03:40 PM #22
Average - .225-.260
HR/Year - 9-15
OBP - .290-.315
OPS - .640-740
I think this equates to about an average 2B. Circling back, in two years when Polanco is ready and Dozier is making $4M and running out of control I could see trading him and making room for the cheaper player. I can't pencil him in as the 2B for the next 10 years until he is more consistent from year to year and month to month.
Last edited by tobi0040; 02-05-2014 at 03:48 PM.
02-05-2014, 03:50 PM #23
I think he'll be somewhere in the .710-.770 OPS range in 2014. Again, with the caveat that he's taking walks. I think Dozier's success entirely hinges on that isolated discipline being somewhere around .070, give or take 10 points.
If that isolated discipline drops to the .040-.050 range again, I think he's off the team within a year.
02-05-2014, 04:07 PM #24
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"My floor for Dozier is quite a bit higher with the caveat that if he's anywhere near your floor, he's out of baseball entirely within 24 months." That seems fairly reasonable. I agree with the floor but think his ceiling is a bit higher. In fact, I will be quite disappointed if his OBP doesn't get above .330 with .270 average. Minor league OBP was .370 so I don't think .330 should be out of the question and certainly he shouldn't be a leadoff hitter if he is below that.
02-05-2014, 06:23 PM #25
I think that he stays as a SS as long as possible. His defense at SS has been improving every season. I do have to question the "weak arm" bit. His arm is not like Sano's but it is not weak by any means. I would call it "average". And there have been fine shortstops with average arms (e.g. Jeter) or even weak arms (e.g. Noarm Garciaparra) as long as they are accurate.
The one thing that might make him move to 2B is not his arm, but his bulkiness, if it cuts into his range. He has gained considerable muscle weight and he looks more like Jhonny Peralta (another aveage arm All Star SS, btw) than Alexei Ramirez these days, but people thought that Cal Ripken was too big to play SS once upon a time. If he is anything close to Peralta, Twins fans would be very happy (and at this point Polanco has better plate discipline, ever as an A league player than Peralta ever had or will have, so I think that his ceiling is a little higher than that...)
02-05-2014, 07:53 PM #26
It'll be interesting to see what happens. I think Dozier is a guy who will OPS between .720 and .780 most years with the ability to get it over .800 a couple of times. That's pretty solid.
I think they keep Rosario at 2B this year, getting him a handful of games at Ft. Myers before he heads back to New Britain. I don't think he has much chance of sticking at 2B.
Polanco currently is not close to as good defensively at SS as Niko Goodrum. Aside from here and there, the only time that Polanco played SS was when Niko was out with the concussion or the groin injury. Polanco can play SS, and he should continue to get some time there. The bigger question is if Goodrum will get bigger and have to move to 3B or the OF or something. Goodrum hasn't shown it yet, but he does have potential to add a lot of strength and power in time.
02-05-2014, 09:10 PM #27
02-05-2014, 09:15 PM #28
02-05-2014, 10:01 PM #29
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I have to admit I was surprised when he was put on the 40 man roster. Jorge is smart and can think on his feet. I am very happy for him. He was a fan favorite in Cedar Rapids "HIP -HIP - JORGE" when he would get a hit or make a great defensive play.
This user likes Madre Dos's post and wants to buy him/her a steak dinner:
02-05-2014, 10:36 PM #30
02-05-2014, 10:49 PM #31
In 2010, moved up from rookie ball to play 39 games at single-A with marginal results. Quickly pushed to high-A and continued that. In 2011, he started back in high-A and did well quickly, continuing that trend at AA. In 2012, he jumped to the majors and might not have been ready leading to struggles at both AAA and MLB. In 2013, he adjusted to MLB early in the year and did well.
I'll buy the inconsistency argument more if he has a significantly sub-par year in 2014, but as is, I think you can contribute a fair amount of that track record to adjusting to new levels.
02-05-2014, 11:58 PM #32
I couldn't care less about his numbers in the GCL. He showed his skill set in 2011. He certainly struggled mightily in his big league debut.. not unusual. He started slow last year... but he made those mechanical changes in late May and was pretty solid after that. I'm not saying he's going to be a perennial All Star. I think the .720-.780 range is very realistic, certainly not excessive... And, if I think he can be in that range, there's no reason to believe that he couldn't have a year or two that jump into the .800 range. That's not a big stretch.
02-06-2014, 07:48 PM #33
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I believe Goodrum is one of those toolsy type players, who could develop into a good hitter but like a Benson, might not. The thing he has going for him is he can play defense and if he can stay at shortstop(doesn't outgrow the position) he has a very good chance of being a big league regular.
02-09-2014, 09:44 AM #34
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There are no 16 year olds in the Appy league. It's an advanced rookie league with an average age of 21. It's primarily for college guys coming off a long college season. There's a handful of teenagers on every team, but they're the exception to the rule.
You base much of your discounting on stuff outside of his control. The Twins have only sent two infielders to A ball out of college in the last 20 years (Knoblauch and Michaels). They typically send you to the Appy league and make you earn your way up. That's what Dozier has done. With the exception of 2012, when he was given the Aaron Hicks treatment and struggled in similar ways, he has earned his way at every level.
It's way too early to give up on him, as you seem determined to do. I'm with Brock. Once he learned the MLB strike zone, he took off. I think he turned a corner. He might regress from his lofty September. But something like the average of June through September is a reasonable projection."If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."
02-09-2014, 02:52 PM #35
Either way, I was not trying to write off Dozier. I think he can be an above average 2B, I am just not ready to pencil him as a guy that will average a .750 OPS and approach .800 in some years, which makes him a potential all-star.
That seems to be the consensus on the site. I am not ready to just forget his 540 at bats in 2012 as well as April and May of 2013.
I initially responded to the notion that Polanco's path may not be too difficult. I don't see Rosario sticking at 2B and if Dozier is just an average 2B and is starting to get expensive, I could see Dozier being traded to another team because we would have Polanco who is cheaper.