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Thread: Article: Kurt Suzuki - Signed to be the starter?

  1. #41
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    The variabilty of a pitcher from day to day to strike people out is highly variable. The variability from pitcher to pitcher to strike people out is large. you assume over time that the catchers would catch each pitcher an equall number of times.
    Yes. It's a large enough sample that you can make all of those assumptions. With a large enough sample, all of those variables level out or come close enough to doing so that they aren't statistically relevant. You can add which ballparks he caught in, teams he caught against (ie, their team's strategy at the plate), day vs night, and many others to the list as well. The only way the assumption doesn't hold is if you have proof that Suzuki generally caught certain pitchers and not others.

  2. #42
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    The ability to strike out or walk batters is not catcher depedent but pitcher dependent. The variabilty of a pitcher from day to day to strike people out is highly variable. The variability from pitcher to pitcher to strike people out is large. you assume over time that the catchers would catch each pitcher an equall number of times. You would appear to me to then also assume that a pitcher's good day and bad days are catcher dependent.
    You see a differnce in the numbers, you have to ask yourself why. You blame the Suzuki, but do not control for any other variable. The other variables have meaning. They do influence % for the catcher.
    I agree that the catcher can't control variables of stuff. But he can help the pitcher craft outs by calling the right pitches in the right locations in the right counts. If the pitcher is capable of executing on the game plan, the catcher can really help him. No catcher can help a guy throw a slider with more bite. The catcher can frame good strikes, but if the pitcher leaves it up and over the plate, there's nothing he can do but watch it fly.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  3. #43
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    Suzuki Others
    Colon 3.80 4.17
    Detwiler 2.43 2.00
    Gonzalez 2.44 2.77
    Griffen 2.50 3.60
    Haren 3.77 5.67
    Jackson 1.80 3.13
    McCarthy 2.74 4.20
    Miline 4.27 3.48
    Parker 1.63 2.46
    Straily 1.90 2.23
    Strasburg 2.30 4.39
    Zimmerman 4.19 3.46

    The data above is k/bb data by individual pitcher in 2012-2013.

    I collected this data, but I did not share it originally because each split of a pitcher does not have enough data to draw any conclusions. It would not be accurate to state that Suzuki was better or worse for any given pitcher based on the splits. There simply aren't enough starts for an individual.

    I post it now because it is reasonable to wonder if Suzuki's numbers were biased by not catching Strasburg or the other better pitchers.

    I think it may be possible to go to the pitch level data from pitchf/x and identify the types of pitches or zones where a catcher has not done well. Two positives might result.

    - The catcher may see through video study how he needs to change a technique with a certain type of pitch or location. It should be possible with hard work and attention to improve this skill.

    - Certain catchers may match certain pitchers based on their strength. For example, Mauer does much better getting extra high strikes than low strikes

    All of that would be learned at the pitch level and not the plate appearance result level. For progress, the Twins would need to trust in the data from pitchf/x and then use it to inform roster and line up decisions as well as using it to improve the individual skill of each receiver.

    My assumption, based on their roster decisions since Mike Fast's study came out in 2011, is that they are not among the teams that trust this data yet.

    Let's hope they have taken the correct direction with the catcher position.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    Suzuki Others
    Colon 3.80 4.17
    Detwiler 2.43 2.00
    Gonzalez 2.44 2.77
    Griffen 2.50 3.60
    Haren 3.77 5.67
    Jackson 1.80 3.13
    McCarthy 2.74 4.20
    Miline 4.27 3.48
    Parker 1.63 2.46
    Straily 1.90 2.23
    Strasburg 2.30 4.39
    Zimmerman 4.19 3.46

    The data above is k/bb data by individual pitcher in 2012-2013.

    I collected this data, but I did not share it originally because each split of a pitcher does not have enough data to draw any conclusions. It would not be accurate to state that Suzuki was better or worse for any given pitcher based on the splits. There simply aren't enough starts for an individual.

    I post it now because it is reasonable to wonder if Suzuki's numbers were biased by not catching Strasburg or the other better pitchers.

    I think it may be possible to go to the pitch level data from pitchf/x and identify the types of pitches or zones where a catcher has not done well. Two positives might result.

    - The catcher may see through video study how he needs to change a technique with a certain type of pitch or location. It should be possible with hard work and attention to improve this skill.

    - Certain catchers may match certain pitchers based on their strength. For example, Mauer does much better getting extra high strikes than low strikes

    All of that would be learned at the pitch level and not the plate appearance result level. For progress, the Twins would need to trust in the data from pitchf/x and then use it to inform roster and line up decisions as well as using it to improve the individual skill of each receiver.

    My assumption, based on their roster decisions since Mike Fast's study came out in 2011, is that they are not among the teams that trust this data yet.

    Let's hope they have taken the correct direction with the catcher position.
    In the Mike Fast study he looked at 5 year window. Over that 5 year span other than LuCroy and Molina at the top, Pasada and Doumit at the bottom it appeared that over 120 games the range of runs saved or lost was under 15. In terms of runs saved that is not that often it would have an effect on the game

  5. #45
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    In the Mike Fast study he looked at 5 year window. Over that 5 year span other than LuCroy and Molina at the top, Pasada and Doumit at the bottom it appeared that over 120 games the range of runs saved or lost was under 15. In terms of runs saved that is not that often it would have an effect on the game
    It is widely accepted that, on average, a difference of roughly 10 runs equates to a win. If you also accept that the average cost of buying a "win" on the free agent market is roughly $5-6 million, you're talking about a very significant amount of value.

  6. #46
    Senior Member Triple-A DocBauer's Avatar
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    I feel that a C is much like a true or natural PG in basketball. Neither position/player can always be defined in the absolutes of statistics. In many cases its about how they run the team and a "feel" of how they do so and how the team and players around them respond. In both cases, it often can be just taking control of situations and being a calming influence to teammates.

    Like many managers/coaches, I think Gardy likes to, at least initially, trust the veteran player. I feel this may be true of Suzuki vs Pinto. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Suzuki as the primary backstop opening day. As has been pointed out, this allows Pinto to not only earn the position, but have mentoring from Suzuki, Mauer and Steinbach. Three experienced and very good sources!

    And thus far, I don't recall anything negative from Gardy in regard to his belief in Punto. I believe he slowly overtakes Suzuki and becomes the primary option by all star break at the latest.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    It is widely accepted that, on average, a difference of roughly 10 runs equates to a win. If you also accept that the average cost of buying a "win" on the free agent market is roughly $5-6 million, you're talking about a very significant amount of value.
    In theory 10 runs equalls a win. But you have to buy into the pitch framing is the cause of close pitches being called and that close called pitches have an effect on ERA
    An article referenced anothr article http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...e-a-nibble-the
    It is on the effect of close called pitches on ERA. Nothing I have seen would lead me to believe there have been changes since.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    In theory 10 runs equalls a win. But you have to buy into the pitch framing is the cause of close pitches being called and that close called pitches have an effect on ERA
    An article referenced anothr article http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...e-a-nibble-the
    It is on the effect of close called pitches on ERA. Nothing I have seen would lead me to believe there have been changes since.
    If a catcher suppressed a pitchers strikeouts and increased a pitchers walks, would that have an effect on runs scored?

    Is there a reason that the k/bb ratio while Suzuki is catching is lower than when a teammate is catching? Is it possible that his poor pitch framing numbers are driving some of that difference?

    The data presented was about strike outs and walks. I should have not distracted the thread by bringing in the possible connection to pitch framing.
    Last edited by jorgenswest; 02-02-2014 at 09:37 AM.

  9. #49
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer jay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse View Post
    But you have to buy into the pitch framing is the cause of close pitches being called and that close called pitches have an effect on ERA
    The numbers presented show that pitchers throwing to Suzuki have a lower K/BB ratio than when throwing to other catchers. Call that framing, call it luck, doesn't really matter.

    K/BB shows a negative correlation to ERA. The lower it goes, the higher ERA goes. You raise the point as if you're saying that in these situations, that correlation won't exist. It just doesn't seem plausible... at all.
    Last edited by jay; 02-02-2014 at 10:36 AM.

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