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Thread: Keith Law Rankings

  1. #81
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    I agree with Thrylos for the most part. I don't see his Aussie league numbers as being particularly dominant. He pitched well. That means more than if Hendriks posted the same numbers but the definition of dominant doesn't change based on some bodies age.

    IMO his numbers mean little when evaluating his future potential at this point. There many guys that post great numbers in the GCL but turn out to be nothing. For me he wouldn't be a top 10 prospect because he is so far away still. Lets talk 2 years from now when he has played at Cedar Rapids.

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  3. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    I agree with Thrylos for the most part. I don't see his Aussie league numbers as being particularly dominant. He pitched well. That means more than if Hendriks posted the same numbers but the definition of dominant doesn't change based on some bodies age.

    IMO his numbers mean little when evaluating his future potential at this point. There many guys that post great numbers in the GCL but turn out to be nothing. For me he wouldn't be a top ten prospect because he is so far away still. Lets talk 2 years from now when he has played at Cedar Rapids.
    Here here! There is a difference between steak and sizzle. We need to temper enthusiasm until a player has progressed to a meaningful level. We can all be hopeful for somebody but when we can't even agree on the definition of "dominant" a step-back is in order.

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    Senior Member Big-Leaguer righty8383's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post

    IMO his numbers mean little when evaluating his future potential at this point. There many guys that post great numbers in the GCL but turn out to be nothing. For me he wouldn't be a top 10 prospect because he is so far away still. Lets talk 2 years from now when he has played at Cedar Rapids.
    I definitely agree. But its not the GCL numbers or the Aussie numbers that have raised my interest, recent scouting reports have shown increased velocity since he signed and his overall stuff sounds pretty good. I agree with the notion that we should temper our expectations for the kid, but I'm definitely intrigued.

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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    I definitely agree. But its not the GCL numbers or the Aussie numbers that have raised my interest, recent scouting reports have shown increased velocity since he signed and his overall stuff sounds pretty good. I agree with the notion that we should temper our expectations for the kid, but I'm definitely intrigued.
    This is the key. If he was American, he would have spent 2013 playing on a high school team somewhere.

    People are underrating just how young Thorpe is and how being "very good" or "dominant" in any professional league is an accomplishment at age 17.

    Again, he is 13 months younger than Kohl Stewart, yet nobody has any issue with Stewart being a top ten prospect.

    And if you look at their meager professional numbers, Thorpe outperformed Stewart in pretty much every way.

    And, again, 13 months younger.

    (don't take this as any kind of prediction that Thorpe will be better than Stewart, I'm just pointing out that arguments to keep Thorpe out of the top ten don't hold a lot of water when looked at objectively)

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    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    If Thorpe were American, finishing his final year of high school and entering the draft this year, where would he go?

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    Panama City, for Spring Break?

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  9. #87
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    Left handed, touches 95mph as a 17 year old, still gets to play half a season before the draft...

    Sounds a lot like a first round pick to me. The only thing going against the kid is that he's only 6'1".

  10. #88
    Senior Member Double-A shs_59's Avatar
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    THorpe at 17 , is probably not going to end up being 6'1" ..... Don't you think closer to 6'3" ? I do. Even if he is 6'1 or 6'2 ...thats juuust enough.

    Thorpe would probably be a late 1st round pick or 2nd/3rd round pick this upcoming draft.

    THorpe is really exciting , I currently have him at about #9 in our system behind Berrios and Pinto guys like that..

    I think Thorpe could rise like Tyler Robertson did a few years ago, only assuming he keeps his weight down and stays healthy, obviously should turn out at least a bit better. Not Clayton Kershaw but maybe Travis Wood or Tommy Glavine lite. Exciting stuff.
    Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
    2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Nick Gordon (SS-RK) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.

  11. #89
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    Thorpe might have ended up as a 1st round pick, but that is anything from a guarantee. Being left handed and touching 95mph is a big advantage but in and of itself doesn't guarantee 1st round status.

    According to MLB.com's early 2014 draft list Justus Scheffield is a 6'1" lefty who touches 94 but they only rank him 39th. Alex Verdugo same stats, 37th. Mac Marshall they peg at 34.

    In the 2013 draft Stephen Tarpley was a 6'2" lefty that touched 94mph and ended up going in the 3rd round. The Twins own Gonsalves didn't go until the 4th round.

    The reason I'm more willing to believe in Stewart right now is simple. He was scouted extremely well by anybody and everybody. The scouts love his mix, velocity and athleticism. It seems that he has the potential to be a frontline starter.

    On the other hand Thorpe was comparatively unknown out of Australia. He had no where near the number of people watching him play and critiquing him and even less since he added the velocity. From what I've seen scouts think his upside at this point is mid-rotation starter.

    Right or wrong Thorpe has more hurdles to jump through because he is an international signee. IMO he either needs to be getting unbelievable reports from the scouts or he needs to show me that he is still dominant when he reaches full season ball. Perhaps he'll get to the Twins and be Johan part duex. Perhaps not. At this point it is way too early to tell, which has been my only point all along.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oxtung View Post
    Thorpe might have ended up as a 1st round pick, but that is anything from a guarantee. Being left handed and touching 95mph is a big advantage but in and of itself doesn't guarantee 1st round status.
    No, it's not guaranteed at all but Thorpe wouldn't be eligible for the draft until 2014 if he was an American citizen. If he comes out in 2014 doing what he did in 2013, he's first round material.

    Of course, still plenty of time until June for things to go right or wrong.

  13. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by shs_59 View Post
    THorpe at 17 , is probably not going to end up being 6'1" ..... Don't you think closer to 6'3" ? I do. Even if he is 6'1 or 6'2 ...thats juuust enough.
    Johan Santana is listed at 6" 0", which I believe is a little generous.
    Being tall is no guarantee of success, just as being under 6' 3" does not mean that the guy can't pitch successfully in MLB.

    For years the Twins specifically drafted tall pitchers. That was one of the things they really took into account.

    Now when we need good pitchers we get them as free agents.
    I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.

  14. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    If Thorpe were American, finishing his final year of high school and entering the draft this year, where would he go?
    A few months back I asked a similar question to some draft expert (I think it was Jim Callis, but I no longer remember exactly who. The article/expert escape me, and I haven't been able to dig it up) The article was about HS pitchers for the upcoming draft. I specifically asked which HS pitchers in the 2014 draft would perform as well as or better than Thorpe did this past year. He thought only two would be better (Holmes and Kolek). Now, this doesn't mean that he thought Thorpe is the 3rd best HS pitcher because they way I phrased the question it didn't take into account future projection (ex. a HS pitcher with amazing stuff but no command may be drafted higher based on hopes and dreams). It was focused more on his current stuff and polish. However, my takeaway was that Thorpe would be considered one of the better HS pitchers in this draft - definitely a 1st round pick, and maybe even taken in the top half.

  15. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN View Post
    Johan Santana is listed at 6" 0", which I believe is a little generous.
    Being tall is no guarantee of success, just as being under 6' 3" does not mean that the guy can't pitch successfully in MLB.

    For years the Twins specifically drafted tall pitchers. That was one of the things they really took into account.

    Now when we need good pitchers we get them as free agents.
    No, his height shouldn't be a problem, I was merely noting that in a perfect world, he's be more in the 6'3"-4" range.

    Of course, he could still get there. I'm 6'4" and didn't stop growing until I was around 20.

  16. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Left handed, touches 95mph as a 17 year old, still gets to play half a season before the draft...

    Sounds a lot like a first round pick to me. The only thing going against the kid is that he's only 6'1".
    I don't remember if it was Sickle's site or BA, but someone with a scouting background said 1st rounder if he was in this year's draft. The hype is legit. Continued success in the MWL, and he's going to be top 100 next year.

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    I've seen several guys say he'd be a 1st Round talent in this years draft.

    And Thorpe is already 6'2" 215 according to Baseball America, and still growing obviously.

    Hell, I was 6 foot tall as a senior in HS, am nearly 6'3" now. Wish I could pack on some pounds like he has though...
    Scouting Report: Tools - Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)
    Spring Training Regular since 2011.

  18. #96
    I think Law has said that Sano's issue is contact, too much swing and miss, but that the glove should play at third. As he faces harder competition and keeps growing he has to prove he can keep the average up, otherwise he'll just be another Three True Outcomes guy instead of a true monster.
    Last edited by Cris E; 02-05-2014 at 09:49 AM. Reason: typo

  19. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by righty8383 View Post
    I definitely agree. But its not the GCL numbers or the Aussie numbers that have raised my interest, recent scouting reports have shown increased velocity since he signed and his overall stuff sounds pretty good. I agree with the notion that we should temper our expectations for the kid, but I'm definitely intrigued.
    Well stated. The steak is in the reports, not in the stats. But yes, there may be a little to much sizzle going on.

  20. #98
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    Any of you guys insider members?

    I am, but I can't seem to find Keith Law's top 15 Twins list. I see where it casually mentions "#11 Engelb Vielma and #13 Danny Santana" but not the others who round out his top 15.

    Would appreciate the link if anyone has it.

    Thanks.

  21. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Any of you guys insider members?I am, but I can't seem to find Keith Law's top 15 Twins list. I see where it casually mentions "#11 Engelb Vielma and #13 Danny Santana" but not the others who round out his top 15. Would appreciate the link if anyone has it. Thanks.
    I don't know if he ever released a Top 15 article, but the top 17 are all listed here. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...-team-2014-mlb

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