01-30-2014, 09:45 AM #101
I know everyone is counting on an improvement from CF to boost the numbers there and that may well be true, but I think we'll be lucky if we don't make up that boost with a decline from C/1B/DH. I think people are really overlooking how bad that group could be for us this year. And those are positions that really hurt a team's offense if they struggle.
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01-30-2014, 10:26 AM #102
Even if the team OPS doesn't increase at all, the team almost has to do better w/ RISP. The team had a 92 wRC+ last year and only put up a 74 wRC+ w/ RISP. That's the 2nd largest difference in MLB.
You know as well as I do that "clutch" isn't really a thing. Regression bells should be ringing and that can account for a huge number of runs right there.
Edit: Sorry to jump around with which stat. Team OPS was .692, bases empty was .708, men on base was .692, RISP was .635.
Last edited by jay; 01-30-2014 at 10:43 AM. Reason: Add 2013 OPS figures
01-30-2014, 10:48 AM #103
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01-30-2014, 11:10 AM #104
MLB performance increases with RISP -- .706 with bases empty, .722 with RISP last year. .707 vs .739 the year before. There's other variables at play here outside of the good hitter already being on base... tiring pitcher, confidence, etc.
01-30-2014, 12:29 PM #105
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I'd say 72-90 is a little harsh.
I think 74-88 or 75-87 is more like it.
Mauer will not OPS greater than .900 BUt should be stronger than .775. FInd the happy-medium to that.
The 2nd half of the season the Twins have a chance to be pretty good, With guys like Hicks, Pinto and Arcia all up from AAA full time and maybe juuuust getting his feet wett one Miguel Sano.... IF this is all true i'd expect our offense to be at least very fun to watch the fina 2-3 months of the season if nothing else.
Dozier needs to build up a batting average a little bit, would greatly help.Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Nick Gordon (SS-RK) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.
01-30-2014, 01:24 PM #106
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Why would Arcia not be up day one? That's crazy, imo.Lighten up Francis....
01-30-2014, 03:10 PM #107
We OPS'd @ .770 from the DH last year (2nd in the League). That number is nearly certain to drop with the combined loss of Mauer's and Morneau's production playing DH, which was close to .850 OPS in 2013. The likely suspects @ DH are coming off of these numbers: Willingham (.577 as a DH), Kubel (.610), Colabello (.631) Parmelee (.663). A 2014 OPS of .700 seems extremely optimistic here.
Our Catcher OPS was .781 in 2013, with Suzuki (.627 OPS) and Fryer (3 years @ AAA OPS of .624) or Chris Hermann (.611 OPS/.565 career OPS) possibly starting out as the catching duo, that number is clearly going to plummet, even if/when Pinto takes over the primary catching role. A combined OPS of .650 seems reasonable, if not generous.
Obviously, Mauer will eclipse Morneau's .741 OPS at First Base, and presumably more likely stay healthy the entire season at that position. Even still, the most optimistic projected OPS for Mauer out there is <.850. Combine that with whomever else gets playing time at First Base and you're looking at a pretty reasonable number closer to .825 OPS.
Consolidating those 3 positions, I get a very generous combined projection of .725 OPS.
01-30-2014, 03:29 PM #108
If you want to buy that Mauer will be at .825 with the switch to 1B, go ahead. He hasn't been sub-.861 as a C since 2007 other than the injury-filled 2011.
1B Mauer 500 0.875 Other 130 0.650 DH Kubel 400 0.700 Willingham 100 0.700 Mauer 60 0.875 Plouffe 60 0.700 C Suzuki 250 0.625 Pinto 300 0.700 Fryer 60 0.625
1B - .829, DH - .717, C - .662, combined .737 across 1860 ABs. We really don't see it all too differently, other than your narrative to portray more negatives.
Last edited by jay; 01-30-2014 at 03:46 PM.
01-30-2014, 03:31 PM #109
01-30-2014, 03:34 PM #110
I understand your points but you're skewing way on the negative here. I think the Twins offense will probably be bad... But given how miserable it was in 2013, small gains aren't out of the question just through a healthy Willingham (if that's possible at this point) and the maturation of Arcia.
01-30-2014, 03:35 PM #111
Fryer OPD'd @ .624 in 3 years of AAA ball, .625 is optimistic. And Chris Hermann isn't really a better bat option.
I don't get what's "backhanded" about projecting that either Kubel or Willingham, or both, can rebound from disastrous years in 2013, that seems on my part to be both optimistic and fully acknowledging that either or both can regress closer to their mean career production.
Last edited by jokin; 01-30-2014 at 04:15 PM.
01-30-2014, 03:41 PM #112
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I hope Willingham is the DH, I would like more OF defense.....can we agree that projecting the offense to be A LOT better, like enough runs to approach median, seems unlikely where they sit today?Lighten up Francis....
01-30-2014, 03:44 PM #113
01-30-2014, 03:48 PM #114
at age 31, coming off of a high BABIP year, increasing trend in upward K rates and no immediate heir apparent providing plate protection, is optimistic. I certainly think .875 is entirely possible, as well, you say I'm being overly negative, I say I'm trying to be realistic with expectations.
Regarding DH, Willingham is a career .706 OPS as a DH, this is primarily all with MN and Oakland the last 3 years, when he supposedly has been healthy. How does that square with your assertion that the DH number will be well over .700 OPS? This is just one solid reason why I am so concerned that lack of offseason moves is going to lead to a "massive failure" at the DH/C/1B combined production.
01-30-2014, 03:48 PM #115
01-30-2014, 03:57 PM #116
01-30-2014, 04:01 PM #117
And I'm not following you on your last couple sentences. Are you saying that it isn't likely that the 20-30 games that someone else (Parmelee, Colabello, Plouffe?) besides Mauer play at First Base are going to drag the net average OPS down from Mauer's own OPS? I think .825 OPS, combined net, is pretty optimistic, if Joe plays 135-140 games at the position.
Last edited by jokin; 01-30-2014 at 04:04 PM.
01-30-2014, 04:03 PM #118I'm trying to be fair, somewhat optimistic and realistic at the same time, and going off of comprehensive compiled stats and trends, certainly not one-sided.
For what it's worth Fangraphs projects .744, which you'd have to call neutral. I don't think calling .737 "fairly conservative" is unfair. Trying to paint .725 as the optimistic number? Sorry, we'll have to agree to disagree.
01-30-2014, 05:05 PM #119
"Fangraphs projects .744" Link please? I can't wrap my ahead around this number based on what I am looking at at their site. Willingham is likely to start out, at the very least, as the LF to maximize his trade value, so what level his production will be as a DH is in doubt at this point. And Pinto seems certain to be highly discounted in his theoretical contribution based on what the Twins have hinted to and the money spent in acquiring a FA Catcher.
Kubel on the 3 published projections in Fangraphs (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) produces an average OPS of .705. Joe Mauer on the same 3 published projections yields an average OPS of .817. Hard to get to .744 OPS from here with the very thin bench depth under these 2 spots, especially if Willingham ends up mostly in LF (until he's traded) and Pinto only ends up playing 80 games or less (likely .625 net OPS for the other 3 options).
01-30-2014, 05:40 PM #120
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