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Thread: Projections have Twins headed for fourth-straight 90-loss season

  1. #101
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    If we hold steady at C, 1B, DH, 2B (and 3B?) that still leaves the inevitable improvement from the outfield production that was so atrocious. I do agree that a couple key injuries could ruin any chances of improvement in a hurry, but that's the case across most of MLB.
    I disagree, I think most teams have better depth than we do. That's one of the problems with not being very good, you're often pretty shallow too.

    I know everyone is counting on an improvement from CF to boost the numbers there and that may well be true, but I think we'll be lucky if we don't make up that boost with a decline from C/1B/DH. I think people are really overlooking how bad that group could be for us this year. And those are positions that really hurt a team's offense if they struggle.

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    johnnydakota (01-30-2014)

  3. #102
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    Even if the team OPS doesn't increase at all, the team almost has to do better w/ RISP. The team had a 92 wRC+ last year and only put up a 74 wRC+ w/ RISP. That's the 2nd largest difference in MLB.

    You know as well as I do that "clutch" isn't really a thing. Regression bells should be ringing and that can account for a huge number of runs right there.

    Edit: Sorry to jump around with which stat. Team OPS was .692, bases empty was .708, men on base was .692, RISP was .635.
    Last edited by jay; 01-30-2014 at 10:43 AM. Reason: Add 2013 OPS figures

  4. #103
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Even if the team OPS doesn't increase at all, the team almost has to do better w/ RISP. The team had a 92 wRC+ last year and only put up a 74 wRC+ w/ RISP. That's the 2nd largest difference in MLB.

    You know as well as I do that "clutch" isn't really a thing. Regression bells should be ringing and that can account for a huge number of runs right there.

    Edit: Sorry to jump around with which stat. Team OPS was .692, bases empty was .708, men on base was .692, RISP was .635.
    To an extent OPS with RISP isn't just about luck when using it as a team statistic.

    I bet that Joe Mauer was more likely to be the runner in scoring position in those situations than the hitter at the plate.

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    USAFChief (01-30-2014)

  6. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    To an extent OPS with RISP isn't just about luck when using it as a team statistic.

    I bet that Joe Mauer was more likely to be the runner in scoring position in those situations than the hitter at the plate.
    There is some truth to that, but it doesn't show up in the numbers and you'd expect to see that effect show up for other teams as well (maybe not as much given Mauer's superiority, but still present).

    MLB performance increases with RISP -- .706 with bases empty, .722 with RISP last year. .707 vs .739 the year before. There's other variables at play here outside of the good hitter already being on base... tiring pitcher, confidence, etc.

  7. #105
    Senior Member Double-A shs_59's Avatar
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    I'd say 72-90 is a little harsh.

    I think 74-88 or 75-87 is more like it.

    Mauer will not OPS greater than .900 BUt should be stronger than .775. FInd the happy-medium to that.

    The 2nd half of the season the Twins have a chance to be pretty good, With guys like Hicks, Pinto and Arcia all up from AAA full time and maybe juuuust getting his feet wett one Miguel Sano.... IF this is all true i'd expect our offense to be at least very fun to watch the fina 2-3 months of the season if nothing else.

    Dozier needs to build up a batting average a little bit, would greatly help.
    Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
    2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-RK) 5. Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 6. J.O. Berrios (P-A) 7. Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8. A.B. Walker (OF-A) 9. L. Thorpe (SP-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11. Max Kepler (OF-A) 12. Trevor May (SP-AA) 13. Jorge Polanco (2B-A) 14. Kennys Vargas (1B-A+) 15. Miguel Sulbaran (SP-A) Just Missed:P Zach Jones, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, P Ryan Eades.

  8. #106
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    Why would Arcia not be up day one? That's crazy, imo.
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Levi, I'll admit I was surprised when I looked at the numbers. We got a combined OPS of like .739 out of C/1B/DH last year. I plugged in some fairly conservative production and playing time projections for this year and ended up with .737 combined. There's some upside in that number, but I thought it would be higher before I started.

    .
    Could you flesh out your "conservative projections" of a combined .737 OPS more specifically?

    We OPS'd @ .770 from the DH last year (2nd in the League). That number is nearly certain to drop with the combined loss of Mauer's and Morneau's production playing DH, which was close to .850 OPS in 2013. The likely suspects @ DH are coming off of these numbers: Willingham (.577 as a DH), Kubel (.610), Colabello (.631) Parmelee (.663). A 2014 OPS of .700 seems extremely optimistic here.

    Our Catcher OPS was .781 in 2013, with Suzuki (.627 OPS) and Fryer (3 years @ AAA OPS of .624) or Chris Hermann (.611 OPS/.565 career OPS) possibly starting out as the catching duo, that number is clearly going to plummet, even if/when Pinto takes over the primary catching role. A combined OPS of .650 seems reasonable, if not generous.

    Obviously, Mauer will eclipse Morneau's .741 OPS at First Base, and presumably more likely stay healthy the entire season at that position. Even still, the most optimistic projected OPS for Mauer out there is <.850. Combine that with whomever else gets playing time at First Base and you're looking at a pretty reasonable number closer to .825 OPS.

    Consolidating those 3 positions, I get a very generous combined projection of .725 OPS.

  10. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Could you flesh out your "conservative projections" of a combined .737 OPS more specifically?
    We're actually very similar at 1B and C, but I have Mauer buoying DH a little. I'm not sure why you'd use or even consider those other numbers for DH. Doumit took the most ABs at .624 and is gone. Willingham and Kubel both weren't themselves. If any of those guys are playing at DH, it's because they are doing better. You even seem to backhandedly acknowledge that by saying .700.

    If you want to buy that Mauer will be at .825 with the switch to 1B, go ahead. He hasn't been sub-.861 as a C since 2007 other than the injury-filled 2011.

    1B Mauer 500 0.875
    Other 130 0.650
    DH Kubel 400 0.700
    Willingham 100 0.700
    Mauer 60 0.875
    Plouffe 60 0.700
    C Suzuki 250 0.625
    Pinto 300 0.700
    Fryer 60 0.625

    1B - .829, DH - .717, C - .662, combined .737 across 1860 ABs. We really don't see it all too differently, other than your narrative to portray more negatives.
    Last edited by jay; 01-30-2014 at 03:46 PM.

  11. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    We're actually very similar at 1B and C, but I have Mauer buoying DH a little. I'm not sure why you'd use or even consider those other numbers for DH. Doumit took the most ABs at .624 and is gone. Willingham and Kubel both weren't themselves. If any of those guys are playing at DH, it's because they are doing better. You even seem to backhandedly acknowledge that by saying .700.

    If you want to buy that Mauer will be at .825 with the switch to 1B, go ahead. He hasn't been sub-.861 as a C since 2007 other than the injury-filled 2011.
    1B Mauer 500 0.875
    Other 130 0.650
    DH Kubel 400 0.700
    Willingham 100 0.700
    Mauer 60 0.875
    Plouffe 60 0.700
    C Suzuki 250 0.625
    Pinto 300 0.700
    Fryer 60 0.625

    1B - .829, DH - .717, C - .662, combined .737 across 1860 ABs. We really don't see it all too differently, other than your narrative to portray more negatives.
    Uhh, I didn't say Mauer at .825 OPS. I said Mauer at .850 (which is more optimistic than every other projection out there), combined with whomever else plays First Base, for a combined, net average at 1B of .825 OPS.

  12. #110
    Pixel Monkey MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    We OPS'd @ .770 from the DH last year (2nd in the League). That number is nearly certain to drop with the combined loss of Mauer's and Morneau's production playing DH, which was close to .850 OPS in 2013. The likely suspects @ DH are coming off of these numbers: Willingham (.577 as a DH), Kubel (.610), Colabello (.631) Parmelee (.663). A 2014 OPS of .700 seems extremely optimistic here.
    If the Twins can't find a DH that OPSes over .700, that is a massive failure. If Willingham DHes, that number should be well over .700.

    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Obviously, Mauer will eclipse Morneau's .741 OPS at First Base, and presumably more likely stay healthy the entire season at that position. Even still, the most optimistic projected OPS for Mauer out there is <.850. Combine that with whomever else gets playing time at First Base and you're looking at a pretty reasonable number closer to .825 OPS.
    Mauer hasn't OPSed under .850 in a healthy season since his second year in the league. Is 2014 the year he regresses? Possibly. Is it "optimistic" to expect him to OPS over .850? No, not really.

    I understand your points but you're skewing way on the negative here. I think the Twins offense will probably be bad... But given how miserable it was in 2013, small gains aren't out of the question just through a healthy Willingham (if that's possible at this point) and the maturation of Arcia.

  13. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    We're actually very similar at 1B and C, but I have Mauer buoying DH a little. I'm not sure why you'd use or even consider those other numbers for DH. Doumit took the most ABs at .624 and is gone. Willingham and Kubel both weren't themselves. If any of those guys are playing at DH, it's because they are doing better. You even seem to backhandedly acknowledge that by saying .700.

    If you want to buy that Mauer will be at .825 with the switch to 1B, go ahead. He hasn't been sub-.861 as a C since 2007 other than the injury-filled 2011.
    1B Mauer 500 0.875
    Other 130 0.650
    DH Kubel 400 0.700
    Willingham 100 0.700
    Mauer 60 0.875
    Plouffe 60 0.700
    C Suzuki 250 0.625
    Pinto 300 0.700
    Fryer 60 0.625
    1B - .829, DH - .717, C - .662, combined .737 across 1860 ABs. We really don't see it all too differently, other than your narrative to portray more negatives.
    Plouffe hasn't had much success as a DH....>.321 OPS in 9 games last year, for his career at DH, his OPS is .504.

    Fryer OPD'd @ .624 in 3 years of AAA ball, .625 is optimistic. And Chris Hermann isn't really a better bat option.

    I don't get what's "backhanded" about projecting that either Kubel or Willingham, or both, can rebound from disastrous years in 2013, that seems on my part to be both optimistic and fully acknowledging that either or both can regress closer to their mean career production.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-30-2014 at 04:15 PM.

  14. #112
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    I hope Willingham is the DH, I would like more OF defense.....can we agree that projecting the offense to be A LOT better, like enough runs to approach median, seems unlikely where they sit today?
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Plouffe hasn't had much success as a DH....>.321 OPS in 9 games last year, for his career at DH, his OPS is .504.

    Fryer OPD'd @ .624 in 3 years of AAA ball, .625 is optimistic. And Chris Hermann isn't really a better bat option.
    You know as well as I do that Plouffe's sample size at DH is completely irrelevant. Fryer is all of 60 ABs... .625 or .575 really is inconsequential.

    I'm all for debate. I'm not all for crafting one-sided narratives.

  16. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    If the Twins can't find a DH that OPSes over .700, that is a massive failure. If Willingham DHes, that number should be well over .700.



    Mauer hasn't OPSed under .850 in a healthy season since his second year in the league. Is 2014 the year he regresses? Possibly. Is it "optimistic" to expect him to OPS over .850? No, not really.

    I understand your points but you're skewing way on the negative here. I think the Twins offense will probably be bad... But given how miserable it was in 2013, small gains aren't out of the question just through a healthy Willingham (if that's possible at this point) and the maturation of Arcia.
    It can be equally stated that based on every projection that is out there, that .850 for Mauer:

    at age 31, coming off of a high BABIP year, increasing trend in upward K rates and no immediate heir apparent providing plate protection, is optimistic. I certainly think .875 is entirely possible, as well, you say I'm being overly negative, I say I'm trying to be realistic with expectations.

    Regarding DH, Willingham is a career .706 OPS as a DH, this is primarily all with MN and Oakland the last 3 years, when he supposedly has been healthy. How does that square with your assertion that the DH number will be well over .700 OPS? This is just one solid reason why I am so concerned that lack of offseason moves is going to lead to a "massive failure" at the DH/C/1B combined production.

  17. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Uhh, I didn't say Mauer at .825 OPS. I said Mauer at .850 (which is more optimistic than every other projection out there), combined with whomever else plays First Base, for a combined, net average at 1B of .825 OPS.
    So... rely on projections when a guy is moving to a less physically demanding position and they are far lower than what a guy has done when healthy, but ignore them when a different guy's 2013 number or SSS make him look like a failure?

    Right. Got it.

  18. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    You know as well as I do that Plouffe's sample size at DH is completely irrelevant. Fryer is all of 60 ABs... .625 or .575 really is inconsequential.

    I'm all for debate. I'm not all for crafting one-sided narratives.
    Again, why project Fryer's numbers at all into your model, if they're so inconsequential?

    I'm trying to be fair, somewhat optimistic and realistic at the same time, and going off of comprehensive compiled stats and trends, certainly not one-sided.

  19. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    So... rely on projections when a guy is moving to a less physically demanding position and they are far lower than what a guy has done when healthy, but ignore them when a different guy's 2013 number or SSS make him look like a failure?

    Right. Got it.
    Again, my own projection for Mauer's number in 2014 is higher than anyone else's out there- I said I could also see the .875 OPS you are hoping for.

    And I'm not following you on your last couple sentences. Are you saying that it isn't likely that the 20-30 games that someone else (Parmelee, Colabello, Plouffe?) besides Mauer play at First Base are going to drag the net average OPS down from Mauer's own OPS? I think .825 OPS, combined net, is pretty optimistic, if Joe plays 135-140 games at the position.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-30-2014 at 04:04 PM.

  20. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    Again, why project Fryer's numbers at all into your model, if they're so inconsequential?
    Because I think someone else will get some ABs at C? The difference between .625 and .575 at that number of ABs is what is inconsequential.
    I'm trying to be fair, somewhat optimistic and realistic at the same time, and going off of comprehensive compiled stats and trends, certainly not one-sided.
    Well, respectfully and frankly, I don't believe you are doing any of those.

    For what it's worth Fangraphs projects .744, which you'd have to call neutral. I don't think calling .737 "fairly conservative" is unfair. Trying to paint .725 as the optimistic number? Sorry, we'll have to agree to disagree.

  21. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay View Post
    Because I think someone else will get some ABs at C? The difference between .625 and .575 at that number of ABs is what is inconsequential.

    Well, respectfully and frankly, I don't believe you are doing any of those.

    For what it's worth Fangraphs projects .744, which you'd have to call neutral. I don't think calling .737 "fairly conservative" is unfair. Trying to paint .725 as the optimistic number? Sorry, we'll have to agree to disagree.

    "Fangraphs projects .744" Link please? I can't wrap my ahead around this number based on what I am looking at at their site. Willingham is likely to start out, at the very least, as the LF to maximize his trade value, so what level his production will be as a DH is in doubt at this point. And Pinto seems certain to be highly discounted in his theoretical contribution based on what the Twins have hinted to and the money spent in acquiring a FA Catcher.

    Kubel on the 3 published projections in Fangraphs (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) produces an average OPS of .705. Joe Mauer on the same 3 published projections yields an average OPS of .817. Hard to get to .744 OPS from here with the very thin bench depth under these 2 spots, especially if Willingham ends up mostly in LF (until he's traded) and Pinto only ends up playing 80 games or less (likely .625 net OPS for the other 3 options).

  22. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Why would Arcia not be up day one? That's crazy, imo.
    Maybe he won't run out a ground ball and we'll need to teach him a lesson.

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