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Thread: Another Free Agent?

  1. #141
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    Twins have Santana and Polanco who could be shortstops, they also will have a glut of second baseman 2 years from now(assuming Rosario pans out or maybe Polanco here). Putting an expensive Band-Aid on does not impress me. This is the year you have to find out what you have for the future and start making plans. If some of the prospects do not pan out, then you know what holes need to be filled after 2014 or 2015. Do not hand out bad contracts just to win another game or two this year.

  2. #142
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kwak View Post
    The salary structure of 2016 is difficult to project, but given the present budget in the $80-85MM range can be expanded 40% and still be in the 52% of revenue parameter, I don't see the addition of an extra free agent to pose a future problem.



    If the plan truly was to add a quality free agent SS next year (somebody better than Drew) then waiting makes sense--but if that isn't a future commitment, then adding him now makes sense.
    Exactly right on the alleged Drew salary "risk" in the 2016 out year of a potential contract, but it's even easier to assuage all of this anxiety around here. Gobs of money comes off the books this year (at least $15.25M) and another $9+M, or likely more, comes off after 2015. If the Twins want to "spend money just to spend money", they certainly have plenty of wiggle room- they will be working off of a "base" somewhere at least $20M below the present budget base of $80-$85M.

    And does anyone truly believe that acquiring a true quality FA SS is the future commitment course that the Twins will take? The coming SS FA "class" of 2015 was dissected in the Drew thread. Once it's thoroughly examined, and with the high likelihood that a large percentage of the "quality" SSs being extended by their existing clubs, Yunel Escobar looks like the only one that would fit in the Twins price range and age range, and the Rays have a 2015 team option on him.

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinscowboysbulls View Post
    If we signed two guys and lost the 2nd and 3rd round picks, wouldn't we just be able to take someone risky in the 4th and pay a little
    More to get them to sign rather than go to college? (Like Gonsalves) and also do that a couple other times in the draft?
    People were trotting out Swarzak as a 2nd round success story. Plenty of Swarzak-level talent in the 3rd round and later, the Twins need to be able to draft smarter for the future AND sign proven major league FA talent to play with the nearer-future top 100 prospects.
    Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 01:04 PM.

  4. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by ppearson50 View Post
    I would hope we could replace Willingham with Hicks, Buxton, and Arcia as our future outfield. Correia and Pelfrey with Meyer, Gibson, and eventually Stewart. Suzuki with Pinto and Stuart Turner. And this team always seems to be able to find bullpen arms so I wouldn't worry about Burton and Duensing.
    Exactly right!

  5. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by jorgenswest View Post
    As Sano, Buxton, Arcia and Rosario get to their mid 20s, the Twins need to position themselves to be competitive, they need the payroll flexibility to sign players to fill in the gaps. I don't think the window for that group opens before 2016. There is a reasonable likelihood that Drew will be a liability at SS at that time. The is a chance that Santana will be an asset. He won't get that chance if Drew has a long term contract.

    I think most teams that are interested in Drew don't want to go beyond two years. The Twins should be in a similar position.
    The Twins are in a similar position, that's the starting hypothesis for getting this deal done. Once Boras realizes he isn't going to get 3 years, he runs out of leverage, the teams interested in him only want to go one year, hopefully Drew then falls into the Twins lap at 2 years.

  6. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reider View Post
    Playoffs Drew: .344 OPS
    SSS is totally meaningless and misses the point of the original point being made- Drew has proven he is fully healthy now, and confirmed his career-track production- he doesn't wear out as the season progresses. August and September, in large sample sizes, have been his 2 best months career-wise.

  7. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    We also heard for years that Mauer was worth more since his offense came from a "non offense" position. By that logic, wouldn't getting more offense from SS count for more as well?

    Truth in advertising...I never bought that argument about Mauer, and don't buy it about Drew now. I just want the Twins to field a better, deeper lineup that will score more runs, and SS is both an obvious place to try and a position with an obvious answer available and reasonable to acquire.
    Chief, it seems pretty obvious to me the advantage the Twins get from having elite offense from a position like catcher. And it becomes even more obvious when Mauer moves from C to 1B. We are exchanging a Morneau-type for a Suzuki-type in the lineup.

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  9. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    Chief, it seems pretty obvious to me the advantage the Twins get from having elite offense from a position like catcher. And it becomes even more obvious when Mauer moves from C to 1B. We are exchanging a Morneau-type for a Suzuki-type in the lineup.
    Then lets counter that by exchanging a Florimon-type for a Drew-type in the lineup.
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  11. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I don't believe a player who will be turning 31 this year has no chance of being part of the next competitive Twins team. At least I hope not.
    And I hope by 2016 we don't have to rely on a shortstop who was good, not great, in his peak who is WELL into his decline arc of his career and making 10 million. THere is a good chance he's as bad at the end of the contract as the guy he's replacing now.

  12. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    And I hope by 2016 we don't have to rely on a shortstop who was good, not great, in his peak who is WELL into his decline arc of his career and making 10 million. THere is a good chance he's as bad at the end of the contract as the guy he's replacing now.
    I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  13. #151
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    I see mlb.com has Trea Turner as their number five prospect in this year's draft. Curiously enough, the Twins have the 5th pick. Which obviously guaranties nothing.

    I suppose signing Drew could buy time to develop somebody. I seriously doubt it would impact ticket sales much.

  14. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.
    Career arcs show most shortstops are decling in defensive ability by 27 years old. There are strong trends to show he will be a subpar fielder by next year, much less two years from now. I would prefer not to make dramatic sacrifices defensively at that position. Even for significant offensive help.

    Not to mention flush 10M on him at 34 years old. If you go around trying to fix every hole as fast as you can (one offseason), chances are you never really fix them. Just make shoddy, expensive patches.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 01-25-2014 at 02:36 PM.

  15. #153
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    Well I hope we sign Garza and Diaz, then trade Correia (he had his career year ) and maybe some AAAA starters along with a reliever or 2 for more catching and middle infield prospects.
    Everyone remember when most wanted Willingham moved after his career years, and we didnt? How did that work out?

  16. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.
    A graph from an aging study done by Baseball Prospectus in 2005.

    4464_7.gif

    Shortstops peak earlier and decline earlier. Overall, all players should be expected to decline significantly from ages 31 to 34. Drew is not an exception.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  17. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    I don't buy this for a minute. He'll be 34 in 2016. There are plenty of major league SS's who have played well at that age and older.
    He'll actually be 33 in 2016.

  18. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Career arcs show most shortstops are decling in defensive ability by 27 years old. There are strong trends to show he will be a subpar fielder by next year, much less two years from now. I would prefer not to make dramatic sacrifices defensively at that position. Even for significant offensive help.
    Shortstops defensive ability generally decline at age 27 because they rely on their athleticism, which generally starts to decline as you reach closer to 30.

    Drew was actually rated as a very poor defender up until his age 27 season. He's been rated as a good defender ever since because he now relies on positioning and anticipation. He's also a consistent defender, who doesn't make many errors. "He makes every routine play". That's why he's been rated as a good defender from his age 27 season on.

  19. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    He's been rated as a good defender ever since because he now relies on positioning and anticipation. He's also a consistent defender, who doesn't make many errors. "He makes every routine play". That's why he's been rated as a good defender from his age 27 season on.
    .6 Dwar is a "good defender"? I'd call that an "ok" defender.

    In fact, that has stayed relatively consistent his entire career. It appears you are basing "good defender" on error totals. Which I completely disagree with.
    Last edited by TheLeviathan; 01-25-2014 at 03:06 PM.

  20. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Career arcs show most shortstops are decling in defensive ability by 27 years old. There are strong trends to show he will be a subpar fielder by next year, much less two years from now. I would prefer not to make dramatic sacrifices defensively at that position. Even for significant offensive help.

    Not to mention flush 10M on him at 34 years old. If you go around trying to fix every hole as fast as you can (one offseason), chances are you never really fix them. Just make shoddy, expensive patches.
    JJ Hardy turns 32 this year, and is somewhat reminiscent to Drew....he hasn't dropped off defensively at all (2 straight Gold Gloves), he makes every play in front of him, despite what the trends said about him, as well.

    Speaking of "fixing holes", is 4 years enough time to fix the hole left by Hardy's departure in 2010, "fast" enough?

  21. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    .6 Dwar is a "good defender"? I'd call that an "ok" defender.

    In fact, that has stayed relatively consistent his entire career. It appears you are basing "good defender" on error totals. Which I completely disagree with.
    Drew actually had a better UZR and UZR/150 than Florimon in 2013.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
    Last edited by jokin; 01-25-2014 at 03:13 PM.

  22. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by jokin View Post
    JJ Hardy turns 32 this year, and is somewhat reminiscent to Drew....he hasn't dropped off defensively at all (2 straight Gold Gloves), he makes every play in front of him, despite what the trends said about him, as well.

    Speaking of "fixing holes", is 4 years enough time to fix the hole left by Hardy's departure in 2010, "fast" enough?
    The Twins haven't done enough to address shortstop - I've been heavily in the camp of trying to use some of the Cuban defectors as options for this. Would be much better money spent IMO.

    As for Hardy - he's been a significantly better fielder than Drew his entire career. He hasn't started to decline yet, that's true, but exceptions (so far) prove the rule...no?

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