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Thread: Another Free Agent?

  1. #81
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Considering he's been consistently at the 3+ win level for years, gives me a pretty good idea of the value he brings.
    It gives you an idea of the value he's brought. I don't, however, use it for projecting future results. Mostly because a composite of stats eliminates the nuance that I believe is far more valuable in analyzing trends and how likely they are to continue. So for projection - no -I don't think it serves any value in that regard.

    So he's worth 2/30, but not 3/33?
    The years are the concern to me, not the total dollars. I do see some concerning signs of decline and I doubt his personality/makeup. Losing cash in the short term if he flops is no big deal. Continuing to lose that money as we start to have our young players more established on the roster does concern me.

  2. #82
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    He hasn't had a .681 OPS against lefties since 2010. He's declining and fast. His production vs lefties has fallen off the cliff the last two years, he can't stay healthy and his K% has jumped from the teens to 23% and 24% the last two years.

    If this wasn't a well known SS, which the Twins desperately need, I think almost all of us would be yelling to stay away. He's not at the beginning of his decline phase, he's well on his way to the bottom. His vs. RHP production at Fenway Park is masking huge indicators that this guy is almost through in this league. I'd bet good money this will be the last MLB contract offered to Drew, it's over.
    For his career, Joe Mauer's OPS is .172 points lower vs LH pitching. Should the Twins be looking for a platoon partner for him too?

    Virtually every hitter hits poorer against same handed pitching. What's important is what a hitter puts up overall, not what he hits against 30 percent of the opposing pitchers. I don't know why we have to keep having this discussion about platooning. It's very difficult to do, which is why you don't see much of it anymore.

    Drew will outhit Florimon, RH, LH, cross handed, one handed, blindfolded. That's what should matter.
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  4. #83
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    Personally, rather than Drew, I'd prefer to buy low on a shortstop who had an off year from a team that has another shortstop on the doorstep. I can think of two off the top of my head. The Indians have Lindor ready to step in, so Asdrubal Cabrera might be available. Or better yet, the Cubs have Javier Baez on the doorstep, so how about Starlin Castro who is signed long-term (with option until 2020) at a reasonable rate.

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  6. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    If the price comes to that - then sure. I had read his initial demands were 4/48 and that he's still sticking to a minimum of 3 years.

    There is an awful lot of speculation about what he can be had for. I'm only on board for less than 3 years with him unless the third year is an option.
    Yep, that 3 year demand has been Boras's starting point for negotiations for quite some time now, and with the "position flexibility" gambit, clearly the price he can ask of the market has been dropping for a potential Non-Shortstop. And I've been all-in on overpaying for 2 years from the get-go. Structuring a deal with Performance Achievements, PAs and Games Played combined with a Team Option in Year 3 seems like the optimum way to go, but being potentially saddled with an unproductive Year 3 (2016) from Drew will not cripple the franchise's ability to operate competitively.

  7. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    Personally, rather than Drew, I'd prefer to buy low on a shortstop who had an off year from a team that has another shortstop on the doorstep. I can think of two off the top of my head. The Indians have Lindor ready to step in, so Asdrubal Cabrera might be available. Or better yet, the Cubs have Javier Baez on the doorstep, so how about Starlin Castro who is signed long-term (with option until 2020) at a reasonable rate.
    Both good options, but why give up the decent prospects that both of these players would command when you can get Drew for $$$ only? And the Twins most immediate need in the lineup is a bat, where Drew is clearly better than the other 2 options?

  8. #86
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    I am a little surprised that all of the 5-6 big names left seem to be holding out for multiyear offers. How many teams does that exclude? How many millions in 2014 salary (and beyond)?

    Look at Kuroda - 4 straight one year deals. He was one of the first players to sign this offseason. $16m, done. December 7, Merry Christmas. He'll make $53m over these 4 years. How much would he have earned if he'd bargained for a multi year deal after the 2010 season? 25m? 30m?

    Its risky but seems like the climate might be conducive to that strategy.

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  10. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by JP3700 View Post
    Well, WAR is the best single metric/stat to use when evaluating a player and his total contributions to a team that season. Is it flawed? Sure. But so is every other statistic that's been used to evaluate him, whether by me or anyone else. WAR at least gives me an idea of the total value he brings, weighting all those stats and factors. Considering he's been consistently at the 3+ win level for years, gives me a pretty good idea of the value he brings.



    Of course it's a concern. That's what the physical is for. I'd trust that the Twins medical staff would be able to identify any possible lingering issues that may present itself (add snark here).

    The season he just had just tells me that it's likely that he has recovered. If the physical says otherwise, void the contract and move on.



    So he's worth 2/30, but not 3/33?
    Drew had a 3.1 WAR last year because WAR is heavily biased to aid shortstops. You know who had a 2.1 WAR last year? Pedro Florimon. WAR may show total value, but the Twins don't need to look at total value, they need to look at offensive value as Drew would not be a defensive upgrade over Florimon.

    Drew's declining offense is not worth $10 million and though none of us here care about that $10 million this year, I and many others DO care about that $10 million next year and the year after. I don't want to tie up that future money as the Twins have now shown a willingness to spend in free agency. There WILL be guys who are actually worth that kind of investment later.

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  12. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAFChief View Post
    For his career, Joe Mauer's OPS is .172 points lower vs LH pitching. Should the Twins be looking for a platoon partner for him too?

    Virtually every hitter hits poorer against same handed pitching. What's important is what a hitter puts up overall, not what he hits against 30 percent of the opposing pitchers. I don't know why we have to keep having this discussion about platooning. It's very difficult to do, which is why you don't see much of it anymore.

    Drew will outhit Florimon, RH, LH, cross handed, one handed, blindfolded. That's what should matter.
    He is expected to hit lower against lefties, but he is virtually unplayable against them Mauer is still an above average hitter. Just because he's a better hitter than Florimon doesn't mean you pay him 2x his worth. If he settles for a one year prove-it deal I'm on board, but this kind of player shouldn't get multiple years anymore.

  13. #89
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    If the Twins sign Drew, it would make the loss of Butera hurt less.

  14. #90
    Twins Moderator MVP USAFChief's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    He is expected to hit lower against lefties, but he is virtually unplayable against them Mauer is still an above average hitter. Just because he's a better hitter than Florimon doesn't mean you pay him 2x his worth. If he settles for a one year prove-it deal I'm on board, but this kind of player shouldn't get multiple years anymore.
    If Drew is unplayable against LHers, what did that make Florimon and his .180/.229/.230 against LH pitching last year?
    Every post is not every other post. - a wise man

  15. #91
    Twins Moderator All-Star twinsnorth49's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Drew had a 3.1 WAR last year because WAR is heavily biased to aid shortstops. You know who had a 2.1 WAR last year? Pedro Florimon. WAR may show total value, but the Twins don't need to look at total value, they need to look at offensive value as Drew would not be a defensive upgrade over Florimon,
    But doesn't Florimon's 2.1 WAR get there due to his superior value defensively? Which would mean that Drew's higher 3.1 value is based on a much more superior offensive value, which is exactly what the Twins need to improve.

    Florimon may be a better shortstop but Drew is a better player, and the Twins need better players. I'm not as confident as some about what's coming up the SS pipeline in the system, therefore Drew represents a way to improve at a position of weakness that isn't going to harm the future either by blocking someone or monetarily hamstringing the team.

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  17. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottyB View Post
    Personally, rather than Drew, I'd prefer to buy low on a shortstop who had an off year from a team that has another shortstop on the doorstep. I can think of two off the top of my head. The Indians have Lindor ready to step in, so Asdrubal Cabrera might be available. Or better yet, the Cubs have Javier Baez on the doorstep, so how about Starlin Castro who is signed long-term (with option until 2020) at a reasonable rate.
    I like that you are thinking out side of the box, some thing seldom done within this team, Rather then trade for an established starter, maybe trade for the guy behind those players?
    or maybe Sardinas who is blocked by Profar and Elvis?

  18. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I disagree - any attempt to post his weaknesses or reasons for hesitation are immediately met with rebuke. There are positives and there are negatives with him,but only the negatives are met with challenges.

    If they can get him for 2/20 - go for it. Hell I'd give him 2/30. I just don't want to commit longterm to a guy who is showing red flags of decline.
    I

    I think the issue is the alternative is Florimon. We sit here and think Drew's shortcomings are still better than the alternative.

    I also believe no Drew means the Pohlad's will pocket the money, which many agree with

  19. #94
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    The problem with trades is what do we have to trade? The only thing the Twins have is room to add salary.

  20. #95
    Please ban me! All-Star stringer bell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Otwins View Post
    The problem with trades is what do we have to trade? The only thing the Twins have is room to add salary.
    The Twins have plenty of prospects. They also have a wealth of back-of-the-rotation starters and bullpen arms. It can and should be done. I am not an expert, but I think the best course is to pry loose a good prospect for talent in an area where the Twins have more depth.

  21. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by AM. View Post
    If the Twins don't like giving up a draft pick, maybe they could work out a trade with Boston to balance the loss of the pick?
    That does not work. You cannot sign a player and then flip him. I think you can trade the player in either May or June at the earliest.

  22. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    Michael Young would NOT be a good move for many reasons.
    1. He has been a negative WAR player the last two years.
    2. He is 37
    3. His "bat" skill has been below average the last two years and will only continue to decline.
    4. Defensively he has been very bad at 3B the past few years.

    In summation: He isn't likely better than Plouffe at this point, hitting or fielding wise, and Sano likely will be up in June/July anyways. He doesn't play defense well enough, or hit well enough to justify a bench spot at this point.
    That is exactly why he fits the Twins plan. They always bring in a guy 3 years too late. Another Ruben Sierra.

  23. #98
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    I can't see the Twins signing Drew. The draft is deep and he just isn't exceptional enough to warrant giving up a pick. You can mark this down and clobber me if I am wrong but I see absolutely no way that will sign him. It is not TR's style.

    I think the guy who mentioned Bartlett has it right. TR see's Bartlett as a potential short term fix at SS and wants to give Florimon or Escobar another look to see if they step up. TR is probably high on Santana as well. Drew is a fantasy that won't see reality.

  24. #99
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsnorth49 View Post
    But doesn't Florimon's 2.1 WAR get there due to his superior value defensively? Which would mean that Drew's higher 3.1 value is based on a much more superior offensive value, which is exactly what the Twins need to improve..
    No matter where you borrow that, the impact is the same. The Twins don't need to get better offense at the expense of defense. We've seen how awful up-the-middle defense can negatively affect an entire team.

    But if WAR is your go-to - essentially Drew is worth one extra win. Do you pay a 2nd round pick and 20-30M for that win? I'm not convinced it is and it appears most of the other potentially interested teams feel similarly. His demands have to come down significantly before he'll get much action.

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  26. #100
    Senior Member All-Star Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Drew had a 3.1 WAR last year because WAR is heavily biased to aid shortstops. You know who had a 2.1 WAR last year? Pedro Florimon. WAR may show total value, but the Twins don't need to look at total value, they need to look at offensive value as Drew would not be a defensive upgrade over Florimon.

    Drew's declining offense is not worth $10 million and though none of us here care about that $10 million this year, I and many others DO care about that $10 million next year and the year after. I don't want to tie up that future money as the Twins have now shown a willingness to spend in free agency. There WILL be guys who are actually worth that kind of investment later.
    I can never figure out TD math when it comes to WAR so anyone can correct me if I'm wrong..

    3.1 - 2.1 = 1

    So then Drew is projected -- just for 2014 mind you -- to be worth exactly one more win than Florimon? I guess if that's the win that gets you from 88-74 to 89-73 and that final wild card berth, then Drew's your guy. I personally would like to see them prove they can play .500 again, and then rearm after 2014, one step at a time. $30 mil is a lot of money even to a millionaire like Pohlad. It's the Cost/benefit Reider and others have been pointing out. And Levi and the other people pointing out how difficult it is to forecast two years down the road and longer.

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