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Thread: MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects Show

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmb0252 View Post
    Callis was asked via Twitter to rank the past #1 prospects of the last 4 years and he ranked them Buxton, Trout, Moore, Profar. That DOES NOT mean he thinks Buxton will be a better player than Trout. Trout is the best 20-22 year old MLB player ever. Just a better prospect when looking back. Pretty nice compliment.
    Trout - better than Willie and Mickey - not hardly by a long shot.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by JustinCB View Post
    Wouldn't mind knowing how the prospect points break down based on BP's top 100 (Twins have 8 in theirs that were generally ranked higher as well, so I'm assuming the system would be ranked higher than 5th), and which has a better track record for graduating MLB talent over the last several years. This may be out there somewhere already, if not, somebody probably has some down time at work tomorrow, right?
    i don't have the BP list (not online yet, right? I assume the reports are what they have printed in their annual), but this point system seems to be "101-X" where X=the player ranking.

  3. #23
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    I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.

  4. #24
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    Perhaps I'm biased, but I wouldn't trade Rosario, Pinto, Thorpe or Polanco for too many of the guys 80-100.

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  6. #25
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    I think Jokin did a reverse scoring to get the points system he has - which I think probably many publications would do (e.g. Buxton #1 overall, counts 100 pts, Stewart #40 overall, counts 60 pts).

    I'd probably do a weighting system, and weight the top 20 prospects much more heavily as they typically, at least in BA's rankings, where top 20 prospects offer 1.5 WAR or higher during their controlled years at a 48% clip, whereas from #21-40 are at 28%, and the rest they do achieve that same contribution at around a 22% clip.

    So...
    5 in 10 of #1-20 = 1.5 WAR+
    3 in 10 of #21-40 = 1.5 WAR+
    2 in 10 of #41-100 = 1.5 WAR +

    The interesting thing I found, is that Callis and Mayo, said of Buxton, there really wasn't any discussion over him being #1. It was "Buxton, and then the rest." Which, Boegarts was in MLB last year and held his own. Tavares had 4 hits in a ST game last year against the Twins and that guy is a Manny Ramirez/Barry Bonds (sans the BBs) waiting to happen, just a violent swinger who barrels balls. Archie Bradley, that guy will likely win 20 games at one point. Mark Appel is another. Miguel Sano, "will win HR titles, even at Target Field"...and yet, "no contest on Buxton being #1."

    Anyone have any background on Trout's 'hype' or press when he was #1. I mean, he was #1 over Bryce Harper on some lists...then #2 on others. I wonder if those same guys would put Buxton over Harper (for those who had him #1).

    And not that 'hype' means anything for production...but curious. I liked Trout better, but wasn't as cogniscient of what everyone was saying so much, as I am now - maybe because I'm a Twins fan, or maybe just because it wasn't there as it is now.

    Baseball America gives Buxton a 75 overall. Pipeline gives him a 75 overall. Prospectus, I believe also gives him a 75.

    80 - is sure fire hall of famer.

    Anyone have what Trout got in 2012 in those publications?
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 01-24-2014 at 09:24 AM.

  7. #26
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    Mayo was one of the few guys who ranked Trout over Harper. Frankly, he might have been the only big name to do so (although the others would have had him at #2 or 3 at worst).

  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.
    Maybe. A guy like Pinto is, at this point, a pretty safe guy but also a low impact guy. He will probably become a solid catcher who we complain about poor framing and pitch calling. Offensively, he'll be a slightly above avg hitter for a catcher - .280/.330/.400ish type lines worth maybe 2-3 WAR. That's not bad but it's not sexy either. A guy like Joey Gallo - #92 on MLB's list is really sexy. He's the only prospect with power comparable to Sano in the minors. He's a heck of a lottery ticket even if it's likely that his pitch recognition problems means he never makes it. But if he does figure that out, he's a true power hitter. I'd probably trade Pinto for Gallo.

    Rosario is getting knocked for the PED suspension and some still question his ability to stick at second. He might be a strong bat at second or might end up as a sorta utility bench bat that can play some second and back up the corners. Jury is still out on him. Others like him a lot more than mlb.com does.

    Responding to another post, I think Thorpe is on the radar but just needs more time. A year from now he might very well be like the Red Sox' Owens, who just shot up lists.

  9. #28
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    Hey Gun...
    I know you know, but I think it's worth the extra effort to make sure to remind ourselves that Rosario's suspension is NOT for PEDs, but rather a 'drug of abuse'.

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  11. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    Wow...Kohl Stewart at #40?!

    Only 19 years old...

    Maybe MLB has more faith in the Twins staff than most...wouldn't think it's just on what Stewart showed last year...
    Stewart has the potential to be a #1 starter. He's a long ways from ready, but the talent is undeniable.

  12. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by pierre75275 View Post
    I cant believe Roserio and Pinto didnt make the list. I am really surprised be that.
    Definitely was surprised by not having Rosario on the list.

  13. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    I think Jokin did a reverse scoring to get the points system he has - which I think probably many publications would do (e.g. Buxton #1 overall, counts 100 pts, Stewart #40 overall, counts 60 pts).

    I'd probably do a weighting system, and weight the top 20 prospects much more heavily as they typically, at least in BA's rankings, where top 20 prospects offer 1.5 WAR or higher during their controlled years at a 48% clip, whereas from #21-40 are at 28%, and the rest they do achieve that same contribution at around a 22% clip.
    Spot on. A point system assigned by reverse order doesn't really tell you much, especially considering a number of Twins prospects just missed this list compared to others. You certainly wouldn't be able to get elite prospects in trades using those values.

    The top 4 systems in my mind are the Pirates, Cubs, Astros, and Twins. You could argue the Red Sox belong in that top tier as well.

  14. #32
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    I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".

  15. #33
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer crarko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".
    Well, that's the whole thing about trying to compare eras. When things go off the scale it's just tough to say 'this is further off the scale than that.'

    As for the show itself, most everything has been said. But if I ever have to watch the same three episodes of Bucks on the Pond over and over again, I'll have to cry. Or drink. Another tough choice.

  16. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".
    How can you argue with Mays, a 20 year old with an OPS>1.000 in AAA that ends up winning the ROY award or Mantle, who was 3rd in MVP voting at 19?

  17. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".
    Huh? Mays certainly wasn't better from 20-22 I'm not sure how you could even argue that. Mickey Mantle is closer, he did lead the league in OPS his 20 year season but if you go by MVP voting, Trout finished second twice, and Mantle finished third and then 22nd. Trout had a fairly significant OPS advantage both seasons, but that's difficult to compare across such different eras.

    An argument could be made that Mantle was the most deserving of the MVP in his 20 year old season, but there's a lot of people who think Trout was the most deserving of the MVP year the past two seasons, you can count myself among them.

  18. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy Nygaard View Post
    If you'd like to see the ceiling for Buxton praise, check out Callis' Twitter feed from last night. After lasting for what seemed like more tham four hours of excitement over Buck, I bet Callis had to be seen by a doctor.
    A severe case of Buxton Priapism

  19. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".
    I didn't think the argument would get an ear as most have already settled who's better behind even considering it.

    I love the 'old guys' more than most. We all have biases, the best we can hope for is honest history. Bias history is a given.

  20. #38
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    But if I must...

    1. Ted Williams
    2. Mel Ott
    3. Mike Trout
    4. Alex Rodriguez
    5. Frank Robinson
    6. Al Kaline
    7. Ken Griffey, Jr.
    8. Mickey Mantle
    9. Willie Mays
    10. Jimmie Foxx

    For a list of top seasons at age 20, go here.

    I believe Alex Rodriguez to be steroid free at that point.

    I also believe Ted Williams to be in the discussion with Babe Ruth as the best baseball hitter ever.

    Imagine Ted Williams with 4.5 more seasons, 3 of which at ages 24, 25, 26. The others at 33-34.

    Seasons 24-26:
    AVG - .350-.380 AVG
    HR - 35-40
    RBI - 130-160
    OBP - .500
    OPS+ - 215-235

    Seasons 33-34:
    AVG - .320-.360
    HR - 25-30
    RBI - 85 - 100
    OBP - .480-.500
    OPS+ - 165-200

    He could have hit 50+ HR a year if he wanted to, but instead went for contact, his BB/K rates are unmatched. 3-to-1, 4-to-1.
    Last edited by twinsfan34; 01-25-2014 at 01:46 PM.

  21. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34 View Post
    But if I must...

    1. Ted Williams
    2. Mel Ott
    3. Mike Trout
    4. Alex Rodriguez
    5. Frank Robinson
    6. Al Kaline
    7. Ken Griffey, Jr.
    8. Mickey Mantle
    9. Willie Mays
    10. Jimmie Foxx

    For a list of top seasons at age 20, go here.

    I believe Alex Rodriguez to be steroid free at that point.

    I also believe Ted Williams to be in the discussion with Babe Ruth as the best baseball hitter ever.

    Imagine Ted Williams with 4.5 more seasons, 3 of which at ages 24, 25, 26. The others at 33-34.

    Seasons 24-26:
    AVG - .350-.380 AVG
    HR - 35-40
    RBI - 130-160
    OBP - .500
    OPS+ - 215-235

    Seasons 33-34:
    AVG - .320-.360
    HR - 25-30
    RBI - 85 - 100
    OBP - .480-.500
    OPS+ - 165-200

    He could have hit 50+ HR a year if he wanted to, but instead went for contact, his BB/K rates are unmatched. 3-to-1, 4-to-1.
    going for singles when you have 50 HR power is idiotic. ive heard people say this about ichiro too. if this is true then both of them are retarded.

  22. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by username View Post
    going for singles when you have 50 HR power is idiotic. ive heard people say this about ichiro too. if this is true then both of them are retarded.
    So the guy who lead baseball in OPS 10 times was doing it wrong?

    Ted Williams could have sold out for more home runs at a net loss to his offensive production, no question but he was a smarter hitter than that.

    As far as Ichiro goes, I've heard he can light it up in batting practice but I haven't really seen any of it so I don't know. But clearly there is a disconnect somewhere with Ichiro, I don't think he deliberately decided to not hit any home runs.

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