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Thread: Big Shock (Sarcasm): Tanaka to Yankees

  1. #101
    Senior Member All-Star Boom Boom's Avatar
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    I know that Twins fans hate the Yankees for kicking their collective butts and inflating the cost of free agents, and that Twins fans are suspicious of imported Japanese players because of the Nishioka dumpster fire...

    but I'm not going to declare the Tanaka deal a disaster for the Yankees at this point. How many of you have seen him pitch? Tanaka is five years younger than Garza and six years younger than Santana - how much do you think those guys will sign for?

    Maybe it will turn out to be a terrible deal, and if I was a GM knowing what I know (which isn't a whole lot about scouting) I wouldn't make the deal. But if it is terrible, I think the Yankees will be OK.

  2. #102
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    And how did those 3 work out this year?
    This is how prospects come to the major leagues.

    I don't understand the stance of "Rush these prospects, I want to see them learn at the MLB level!" and after they stumble a bit and struggle to adjust to the highest level of competition, talking about how miserable a prospect they were in the first place.

    Prospects struggle at the MLB level. It's how it works. Some guys need to go back to the minors, find their footing, and then come back with improved ability to compete.

    A few players who struggled mightily in the first MLB experience:

    Torii Hunter
    Justin Morneau
    Michael Cuddyer
    Jason Kubel
    Johan Santana (admittedly, he had no business being on an MLB roster but had to be on it)
    Brad Radke
    Cristian Guzman

    Hey, look at that. Almost the entire core of the 2000s playoff teams needed to go back to the minors or struggled horrifically in their first MLB season.

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  4. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    This is how prospects come to the major leagues.

    I don't understand the stance of "Rush these prospects, I want to see them learn at the MLB level!" and after they stumble a bit and struggle to adjust to the highest level of competition, talking about how miserable a prospect they were in the first place.

    Prospects struggle at the MLB level. It's how it works. Some guys need to go back to the minors, find their footing, and then come back with improved ability to compete.

    A few players who struggled mightily in the first MLB experience:

    Torii Hunter
    Justin Morneau
    Michael Cuddyer
    Jason Kubel
    Johan Santana (admittedly, he had no business being on an MLB roster but had to be on it)
    Brad Radke
    Cristian Guzman

    Hey, look at that. Almost the entire core of the 2000s playoff teams needed to go back to the minors or struggled horrifically in their first MLB season.

    So then we agree, in 2 or 3 years we will know how they turn out?

  5. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave View Post
    I don't think the Rules need to be changed at all. The Yankees have won one title in the last 13 years, during that time the teams to win multiple ones are the Red Sox, Cardinals and Giants have all won multiple world series, I am not sure anyone would claim they have some huge advantage when it comes to payroll (Red Sox...ok...maybe, but for the most part those teams were built from within and shrewdly)

    In fact, as much as I hate the Cards, they are a premier example on how to build a team: Build GREAT in house talent, continue to replenish the farm, and make some smart plays on the FA market (and realize when its time to let people go- Like Pujols, Beltran etc)
    The Cards payroll actually is dropping a little from last year. They have seven starting pitchers vying for 5 spots. And the closer could likely by a starter.

  6. #105
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    So then we agree, in 2 or 3 years we will know how they turn out?
    Yeah, but you have to let the kids play... You can't fill up the roster with free agents blocking them from getting the required MLB experience to succeed.

    Which is why I think Drew is the only viable FA for the Twins left on the market... But even he has some pretty ugly warts and isn't a perfect fit. I think he's a decent gamble but I can also see why others don't feel the same.

    As for Tanaka, I'm firing from the hip here but I'm almost positive this statement is true:

    No team in MLB history has won a championship with two players consuming 50% of payroll. Zero. None. Nada. Zilch. At $20m+ per season, Tanaka has all sorts of red flags surrounding him and almost no upside. Not at that price.

    The Twins won't win with one 5 win player being paid $20m+ a season... They already have that in Joe Mauer. They need a bunch of 2-3 win players before they're competitive again.

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  8. #106
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    Well, if you increase your payroll enough, you wouldn't have 2 people earning 50%, but not even I am asking for a payroll over $125......
    Lighten up Francis....

  9. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Yeah, but you have to let the kids play... You can't fill up the roster with free agents blocking them from getting the required MLB experience to succeed.

    Which is why I think Drew is the only viable FA for the Twins left on the market... But even he has some pretty ugly warts and isn't a perfect fit. I think he's a decent gamble but I can also see why others don't feel the same.

    As for Tanaka, I'm firing from the hip here but I'm almost positive this statement is true:

    No team in MLB history has won a championship with two players consuming 50% of payroll. Zero. None. Nada. Zilch. At $20m+ per season, Tanaka has all sorts of red flags surrounding him and almost no upside. Not at that price.

    The Twins won't win with one 5 win player being paid $20m+ a season... They already have that in Joe Mauer. They need a bunch of 2-3 win players before they're competitive again.
    In reading the theme from posts covering different topics, a majority of the people on here don't seem to be advocating signing a $20M+ player, or giving Tanaka the deal the Yankees gave him.

    What I see are fans that are frustrated that our payroll will end up where was last year when we fielded our third straight 95 loss season.

    Most realize that we are not going to sign a 3B or CF, for obvious reasons. But that we could use Drew, potentially a DH, and maybe another starter. I don't see anyone asking for the moon. Just a payroll somewhere in between where it was last year ($84M) and the 52% of revenue mark that MLB recommends which would be in the neighborhood of $115M.

  10. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    I don't understand the stance of "Rush these prospects, I want to see them learn at the MLB level!"...
    Excellent point, absolutely agree. As far as I can tell, that's what happened to Gilmartin, so dumping Doumit for him + (likely/hopefully) a year at AAA = shrewd trade and a good chance for a rebound & future success in the Bigs. That's a potentially great move.

    On the other hand, the impatience among the faithful is absolutely understandable.

    My takeaway from Tanakagate is twofold:

    1) Yanquis see, Yanquis buy. Thank god we're not them. Let them eat cake.
    2) My big concern is that the traditional Twins skittishness with FAs has penetrated to the core and brought about an instinctive reluctance to lock up guys who have worked their way through the system and stand to cash in as they approach FA, a la Hunter and Santana. People are STILL complaining about locking up Mauer... I don't get it.

    We are all pinning our hopes on Sano, Buxton, Meyer, etc. The clubs' future depends on how they pan out, and if they do pan out the way we hope- do you want to see them walk?

    Sometimes it seems the Twins are the 'gift that keeps on giving' to MLB because we do all the hard work of drafting & developing talent just to kiss 'em goodbye when they prove themselves at that level. I'm more sick about that than our ritual hiding by the Yanqs.

    There ARE times when you have to pull the trigger and commit big.
    Last edited by BigTrane; 01-23-2014 at 11:11 AM. Reason: Forgot something
    Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

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  12. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigTrane View Post
    We are all pinning our hopes on Sano, Buxton, Meyer, etc. The clubs' future depends on how they pan out, and if they do pan out the way we hope- do you want to see them walk?

    Sometimes it seems the Twins are the 'gift that keeps on giving' to MLB because we do all the hard work of drafting & developing talent just to kiss 'em goodbye when they prove themselves at that level. I'm more sick about that than our ritual hiding by the Yanqs.

    There ARE times when you have to pull the trigger and commit big.
    The Twins have not lost a major free agent they wanted to retain since coming to Target Field.

    In fact, the Twins have retained most of the free agents they wanted to keep during their Metrodome years, too. Hunter and Santana were the two big losses but are more than offset by the retention of guys like Radke, Morneau, and Mauer.

    The Twins are not, and never have been, the Oakland Athletics or Tampa Bay Rays. Those teams struggle to retain any of their free agents. That's not a problem the Twins have faced in the past 15 years. The Twins can't keep all of their free agents, sure... But they don't lose virtually every one like the A's and Rays have over the years.

  13. #110
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Most realize that we are not going to sign a 3B or CF, for obvious reasons. But that we could use Drew, potentially a DH, and maybe another starter. I don't see anyone asking for the moon. Just a payroll somewhere in between where it was last year ($84M) and the 52% of revenue mark that MLB recommends which would be in the neighborhood of $115M.
    While this is reasonable, the problem with those wanting more signings is that they ignore the fact that there may be reasons other than payroll not to add these players. A whole host of reasons really. That's the disconnect.

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  15. #111
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    Point taken, but the FAs I mentioned were PRE Target Field.

    Did I say any or all? Do you like the retention rate of proven players?
    Is there a link between FA signings and and soon-to-be-FAs signings, or not?
    Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

  16. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    The Twins have not lost a major free agent they wanted to retain since coming to Target Field., etc.
    Point taken, but the FAs I mentioned were PRE Target Field.

    Did I say any or all? Do you like the retention rate of proven players?
    Is there a link between FA signings and and soon-to-be-FAs signings, or not?
    Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

  17. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    While this is reasonable, the problem with those wanting more signings is that they ignore the fact that there may be reasons other than payroll not to add these players. A whole host of reasons really. That's the disconnect.
    I don't buy this. The only real reason other than payroll is the second round pick. Since 1990, we have had exactly five players who were drafted in the second round see significant time in the big leagues for us (Baker, Slowey, Crain, Jacque, and Swarzak).

    Nobody can argue we have much of anything in the pipeline or that Drew is not better than Florimon. This is primarily a financial decision.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/dr...ft_type=junreg

  18. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    Nobody can argue we have much of anything in the pipeline or that Drew is not better than Florimon. This is primarily a financial decision.
    Drew also has a history of injuries and at least one team that was happy to be rid of him. He's also about to enter the downside of his career trend.

    The more I've thought about 4/48, a draft pick, and his profile - the less I think of it as a no-brainer and the more I can see arguments against bringing him in. He's just not good enough and reliable enough to warrant bringing in.

    If he wants a one or two year deal? Alright, then I'm in on this being only payroll, but at his current asking price his profile has lots of red flags.

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  20. #115
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Twins Twerp's Avatar
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    The NFL has by far the best system with revenue sharing and a hard salary cap. Hopefully after Bud leaves next season, some 20th century ideas will be established in baseball that make the game more watchable. I struggle to watch games where the Yankees infield (in the past) has made more money than the bottom 4 teams in the AL Central. Every few years I get more and more disgusted with Major League Baseball. Why should the small market teams have to tear it down and be "shrewd" with signings, when the Yankees can make mistake after mistake and never rebuild. They spent almost half a billion dollars this year...if it doesn't work, they will spend half a billion next year.

    Teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees need to held accountable for their uber-mistakes, and a hard cap would do that. Perhaps then, MLB would be able to compete with the NBA and NFL.
    Last edited by twinsnorth49; 01-23-2014 at 06:16 PM.

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  22. #116
    Owner MVP Brock Beauchamp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Drew also has a history of injuries and at least one team that was happy to be rid of him. He's also about to enter the downside of his career trend.

    The more I've thought about 4/48, a draft pick, and his profile - the less I think of it as a no-brainer and the more I can see arguments against bringing him in. He's just not good enough and reliable enough to warrant bringing in.

    If he wants a one or two year deal? Alright, then I'm in on this being only payroll, but at his current asking price his profile has lots of red flags.
    For me, the ceiling on Drew is 3/$36m. I wouldn't consider him at a nickel above that price and I'm not sure I would even sign him at that price.

    But if the price drops to 3/$30m or under, I'd strongly consider him at that point.

  23. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    Perhaps then, MLB would be able to compete with the NBA and NFL. F#$% the Yankee Pigs.
    Um, just how on earth do you think the NBA is somehow kicking MLB's butt?

    A cap would be nice at some point - you know what would be better? Sharing media revenues. I get the arguments why they should stay separate, but that difference is by the biggest factor driving financial resources.

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  25. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    For me, the ceiling on Drew is 3/$36m. I wouldn't consider him at a nickel above that price and I'm not sure I would even sign him at that price.

    But if the price drops to 3/$30m or under, I'd strongly consider him at that point.
    I would too, but I'd much rather limit the years. The dollar amount per year I don't care about as much as I do giving that many years to a character with lots of red flags.

    Statistically there is plenty to worry about him translating last year's success somewhere else as well. I wouldn't get my pitchfork and torch out if they signed him.....but I'm also in no rush to if he goes somewhere else.

  26. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    I would too, but I'd much rather limit the years. The dollar amount per year I don't care about as much as I do giving that many years to a character with lots of red flags.
    Absolutely. I only used three years because that's what I think it will take to get him. If he's on board for two years, I'd give him more per year, definitely.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheLeviathan View Post
    Statistically there is plenty to worry about him translating last year's success somewhere else as well. I wouldn't get my pitchfork and torch out if they signed him.....but I'm also in no rush to if he goes somewhere else.
    Well, it depends... If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of injuries and/or dropoff, then that's definitely a consideration. If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of Fenway Park, that shouldn't be an issue... Drew had almost zero opposite field power last season which means that Fenway was a burden to him, not a boon.

  27. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp View Post
    Well, it depends... If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of injuries and/or dropoff, then that's definitely a consideration. If you mean he won't repeat last year's success because of Fenway Park, that shouldn't be an issue... Drew had almost zero opposite field power last season which means that Fenway was a burden to him, not a boon.
    Check his splits. It didn't help his power - but it sure as hell helped everything else. To the tune or roughly .200 OPS points.

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