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Thread: Article: Twins Avoid Arbitration with Duensing, Plouffe, Swarzak

  1. #21
    Senior Member Big-Leaguer Boom Boom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I hate to hear the "trade Duensing for value" argument. Duensing has NO value for other teams. For 2 mil, why not keep him, but you aren't going to trade him for a top 30 prospect in another system. Just because a guy has a good salary, doesn't mean teams are going to give up "value" (and I assume by value you mean prospects) for him.
    No, you're not going to get a top prospect by trading Duensing. The Twins have some other LH relief options that could take Duensing's place at a quarter of the cost, however, so the "value" would be the freed-up money + whatever player you could get.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I don't understand it at all. I had a guy go off on me on Twitter when I suggested the non-tender thing was a dumb idea. He became the biggest troll I've ever encountered on the Internet about it. I had to ask Twitter to suspend him. It seems, he'd rather have nothing than a positive WAR player at the position.

    What does getting rid of guys like that accomplish, unless it's to make room for someone who is clearly ready and clearly better? Sano is not clearly ready. Romero projects at replacement level at best. All getting rid of Plouffe does is save the Twins money and makes them worse. The same people who want to non-tender Plouffe also rant about how cheap the Twins are. They have no clue about how inconsistent those two positions are.
    There is nothing written in the laws of the universe that states you have to be consistent with an emotional attachment.

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  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I hate to hear the "trade Duensing for value" argument. Duensing has NO value for other teams. For 2 mil, why not keep him, but you aren't going to trade him for a top 30 prospect in another system. Just because a guy has a good salary, doesn't mean teams are going to give up "value" (and I assume by value you mean prospects) for him.
    Yeah, that may be true. Either way, non-tendering him doesn't make sense. If that "value" does end up appearing at some point, I'd hope the Twins take it.

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Twins Twerp View Post
    I hate to hear the "trade Duensing for value" argument. Duensing has NO value for other teams. For 2 mil, why not keep him, but you aren't going to trade him for a top 30 prospect in another system. Just because a guy has a good salary, doesn't mean teams are going to give up "value" (and I assume by value you mean prospects) for him.
    I'm fine with keeping him as he was possibly the 2nd best bullpen arm the 2nd half of last year, but saying he has no value isn't true. He's a lefty the Twins are clearly trying to bill as a swingman who put up a 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 4.33 K/BB in the second half of last season. Plenty of teams are looking for that. Could the Twins get a top 10 prospect? No, but they would get a top 30 guy for him.

  6. #25
    Senior Member All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spycake View Post
    Even a guy like Plouffe would be harder for the Twins to immediately replace than Duensing.
    As others have said, Duensing represents potential trade value. If his salary isn't above 4M, he might at least command something intriguing. It's certainly not worth dumping that potential over 2 million.

  7. #26
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Boom Boom View Post
    No, you're not going to get a top prospect by trading Duensing. The Twins have some other LH relief options that could take Duensing's place at a quarter of the cost, however, so the "value" would be the freed-up money + whatever player you could get.
    The only other left hand relief options as good as Duensing are either the closer or in A ball. Thielbar's .175 BABIP and 89 mph fastball will get exposed next season if he is in the bigs. Albers, Diamond are soft tossers as well. Ibarra had an .167 BABIP in Rochester and .244 overall. Corey Williams regressed and he is at least a year away. Dean and Darnell are starters. Aaron Thompson is non-reliable.

    Who is as good a LHP in the organization right now as Duensing? I do not see anyone not named Perkins fit the bill...

    I just don't get the Duensing hate here...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    The only other left hand relief options as good as Duensing are either the closer or in A ball. Thielbar's .175 BABIP and 89 mph fastball will get exposed next season if he is in the bigs. Albers, Diamond are soft tossers as well. Ibarra had an .167 BABIP in Rochester and .244 overall. Corey Williams regressed and he is at least a year away. Dean and Darnell are starters. Aaron Thompson is non-reliable.

    Who is as good a LHP in the organization right now as Duensing? I do not see anyone not named Perkins fit the bill...

    I just don't get the Duensing hate here...
    I don't hate Duensing and they would have been foolish to non-tender him (but his lefty split advantage did evaporate quite a bit in 2013), but there's a fighting chance they can get a mid-level prospect for him with proper timing of the potential deal and try out Kris Johnson for the primary LHRP role at a fraction of the cost. His MiLB split against lefties looks pretty dominant.
    And there are always going to be a few decent lefty arms on the waiver wire in late March.

  10. #28
    Duensing has a slim chance being on the next good twins team, I want to see younger players this year that have a better chance helping us in the future

  11. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    The only other left hand relief options as good as Duensing are either the closer or in A ball. Thielbar's .175 BABIP and 89 mph fastball will get exposed next season if he is in the bigs. Albers, Diamond are soft tossers as well. Ibarra had an .167 BABIP in Rochester and .244 overall. Corey Williams regressed and he is at least a year away. Dean and Darnell are starters. Aaron Thompson is non-reliable.

    Who is as good a LHP in the organization right now as Duensing? I do not see anyone not named Perkins fit the bill...

    I just don't get the Duensing hate here...
    I agree with this. Duensing is probably the best left handed reliever at or close to the majors not named Perkins. Thielbar, Albers, and possibly Ibarra might help a bullpen in some role, but Duensing has better velocity and better stuff than any of them. He is also not that old, their is a good chance he will be pitching in in the majors for a long time.

  12. #30
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    I am very gratified to see the love for Deunsing especially. The young man has decent stuff, especially when allowed to just know his role in the pen and be allowed to pitch there. And I really think he proved that this year, especially in the second half of the season.

    I know there have been debates of varying degree as to how good the bullpen actually was this past season. And I feel various metrics can say whatever you want them to say, but when I look at the state of the rotation last season, and the IP of our pen, and the basics of record, ERA, etc. I see an overworked pen that was fairly balanced, and did a very solid job despite their vast overuse. And I feel the could be even better this year, and Deunsing is a big part of the equation, and at a relatively cheap price when one considers the dearth of solid LH relievers that have any sort of proven record. There is a reason teams scramble to find LH's who are upright and breathing for their teams.

    I've been a bit frustrated by those who simply and arbitrarily announce the Twins should just up and trade so and so out of the pen this off season. To what end? A strong bullpen is paramount to a competitive club and a winning club (eventually). And as I have stated, I believe the Twins have filler pieces that might prove themselves worthy, providing depth, from both sides of the mound. And not just those prospects in the lower minors, but even at AAA. But give me the guys who have shown what they can do, for now at least, instead of just removing proven commodities and plugging someone in and hoping they can do the job.

  13. #31
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    Also want to agree with Dave and cmathewson on Plouffe.

    Yes Plouffe is frustrating. No he hasn't lived up to expectations or seeming talent level to this point. Yes he has teased us. No he may not be a long term solution anywhere, or the second coming of Cuddyer to this point.

    But what else would you have the Twins do at this point? Dump a decent 3B with power and some potential still to replace him with ____________? What? Teams clamor to find someone to play a half-way decent 3B with some offense, and the Twins have someone there to hold the position until Sano is ready.

    We would all like Sano to win the job in ST, or by the all star break, but you can't count on that. Perhaps this year, with a full two seasons plus now under his belt, that Plouffe starts to round in to a more consistent form. Perhaps not. But at least he can keep the position warm for now with some contributions, and might still prove to be a valuable utility guy.

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  15. #32
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DocBauer View Post
    But what else would you have the Twins do at this point? Dump a decent 3B with power and some potential still to replace him with ____________? What? .
    This is kind of interesting. Rewind a couple seasons ago. After the 2011 season. Replace "Plouffe" with "Valencia" and this sentence still stands. The Twins are notorious about doing this to their players who are not first round draft picks. I think that this is what might save Plouffe and Parmelee this season. And I do like Plouffe. I like him more than I ever liked Cuddyer. I think that Plouffe has great power and is a much better OF than most on the Twins' roster right now.
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  16. #33
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim H View Post
    I agree with this. Duensing is probably the best left handed reliever at or close to the majors not named Perkins. Thielbar, Albers, and possibly Ibarra might help a bullpen in some role, but Duensing has better velocity and better stuff than any of them. He is also not that old, their is a good chance he will be pitching in in the majors for a long time.
    I agree. It's telling they didn't add a veteran lefty reliever, as they normally do. Several were available, but they preferred to stick with Duensing and Thielbar. I don't like Albers as a reliever. Ibarra has a chance, but not until he proves it in AAA. Darnell is another option later in the year, I suppose, as are Kennedy and Gilmartin.
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  17. #34
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    None of these guys have salaries that will prevent the Twins from releasing them when a clearly better solution presents itself. It is on them to play well or be pushed out.

  18. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    I agree. It's telling they didn't add a veteran lefty reliever, as they normally do. Several were available, but they preferred to stick with Duensing and Thielbar. I don't like Albers as a reliever. Ibarra has a chance, but not until he proves it in AAA. Darnell is another option later in the year, I suppose, as are Kennedy and Gilmartin.
    The reason I include Albers as a reliever is because he has little chance to make the team as a starter, but there might be room for a swing man/long man reliever depending on what the Twins decide to do with Swarzak. I really don't see Swarzak making the team as a starter either, but he could be moved into the 6th/7th inning role depending on how the bullpen shakes out.

  19. #36
    Owner MVP Seth Stohs's Avatar
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    Good discussion... I enjoy the back and forth that has been respectful. I generally agree with those that say that these were all obvious decisions. Plouffe didn't take the step in 2013 we hoped, but he wasn't a weak spot either. And has been pointed out, we don't know when Sano will be ready, so $2.35M is just fine.

    As for Duensing, he's got a nice track record and $2M is very fair. He's been pretty solid. He struggled last year for a month or two, but came on strong. They could trade him, or keep him and extend him. If they did trade him, in July they could certainly get something for him. Not a Top 10, but probably 2 guys in the 20s.

    I agree with Thrylos in that he's the one guy you kind of know you can probably count on. Where I disagree, guys like Thielbar have value too as a second lefty, and he's certainly got the stuff to be solid and improve. Aaron Thompson is still just 27. Can he be counted on? No. But if he pitches well in Rochester, he could come up and be solid. Ibarra touches 94 and has a great slider. Diamond could step into the bullpen and be just fine. Duensing rarely hit 92 as a starter, and he regularly hits 93-94 out of the bullpen. There are plenty of options who could contribute. Also, they have Perkins in the bullpen and it's not like they are required to have two other lefties.

    Regarding Swarzak, the Twins got an absolute steal. He provided a ton of value to the Twins roster in 2013, and he'd done OK in previous seasons, so I think getting him for less than $1 million is crazy! And, 10 starts = $25K bonus... it's like nothing!

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    Seth, how can you or anyone say that Plouffe was not a weak spot given his production (or lack thereof in 2013)? If every team in MLB had such poor figures from any position offensively they would easily be candidates for 90+ losses each year. And, guess what, that is also exactly the Twins victory total each year for the last three seasons.

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  23. #38
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    Seth, how can you or anyone say that Plouffe was not a weak spot given his production (or lack thereof in 2013)? If every team in MLB had such poor figures from any position offensively they would easily be candidates for 90+ losses each year. And, guess what, that is also exactly the Twins victory total each year for the last three seasons.
    Plouffe has had a positive WAR two years in a row, so, by definition, he was not a weak spot, where you define "weak spot" as at or below replacement level. The Twins had two positions with negative WAR last year, which they have not addressed. Yet, people are obsessed with a position with positive WAR.

    And is he that weak? He is closer to average at his position than replacement level. His OPS+ was 106 and 94 in his first two seasons at the hot corner. So he's teetered on either side of average at his position (100 is average). If you want a good comp, consider Garret Atkins, who had a career OPS+ of 100. He wasn't as good a defender as Plouffe, but few people thought to get rid of Atkins after his first full season at the position with an OPS+ of 93.

    BTW, in his next three seasons, Atkins proceeded to give the Rockies almost 10 WAR. So it's not out of the question for Plouffe to progress this year. People forget that this is just his second full season at the position. At 27, he's entering his prime. I expect progression. Getting rid of him now would be selling low. After going through David Ortiz nontender, I don't think Ryan wants to make that mistake again.

    Is there room for improvement at third? Sure. Not in the current Twins organization at this time. Could they have upgraded the position externally? Doubtful. Besides, why upgrade a position externally that you plan on upgrading internally within the next season? Anyway, you don't get rid of an average player at a position who's cheap without a better backfill waiting in the wings.
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  24. #39
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    cmathewson, I hardly think Plouffe will start putting up David Ortiz numbers, do you or does anyone else posting here think so either? And within the current organization the improvement at third will obviously be Sano which you implied in a round about way. Plouffe in the outfield or DH down the road? Possibly, but not with the numbers he has put up so far, I am talking real traditional numbers now not WAR which is a problematical stat anyway, isn't it?

  25. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldguy10 View Post
    cmathewson, I hardly think Plouffe will start putting up David Ortiz numbers, do you or does anyone else posting here think so either? And within the current organization the improvement at third will obviously be Sano which you implied in a round about way. Plouffe in the outfield or DH down the road? Possibly, but not with the numbers he has put up so far, I am talking real traditional numbers now not WAR which is a problematical stat anyway, isn't it?
    That wasn't my point. My point is, Ryan nontendered Ortiz and he improved greatly afterwards. If Ryan had nontendered Ploufe and he had improved, Ryan would be caught making the same mistake, not of the same magnitude, but the same type.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

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