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Thread: Article: What to Make of Trevor May?

  1. #21
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    At 24 I wouldn't hold my breath. Also Tyler Clippard says hello.

    edit: To clarify I wouldn't hold my breath on May developing a good breaking pitch and then holding down a rotation job. I agree with Nick that relief is more likely his future.
    Guys learn new pitches all the time. Johan Santana was a FB/Slider guy when we got him. He added a plus change at age 23 and, if I recall correctly, he became a pretty good pitcher.

    When talking about guys developing after a certain age, we normally focus on the limitations of their bodies. You don't expect a guy to add velo after 24. But adding or refining a breaking pitch is actually quite common. It's not like he doesn't have one. He has two. But they're "fringy" to use Jonathan Mayo's term.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  2. #22
    Senior Member Double-A chuchadoro's Avatar
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    I think tobi is working from the premise that May will be a hard-throwing, cost-controlled bullpen option at worst and Revere needs to hit .325 to have a .350 OBP and could not throw a ball out of a wet paper bag. It might be a little early to call it a good return but you can see what he's getting at.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuchadoro View Post
    I think tobi is working from the premise that May will be a hard-throwing, cost-controlled bullpen option at worst and Revere needs to hit .325 to have a .350 OBP and could not throw a ball out of a wet paper bag. It might be a little early to call it a good return but you can see what he's getting at.
    That is exactly what my premise was. In May I think you have either a good starter or a very good set up guy. I am not convinced Revere is a major league player, certainly not one on a good team. Offensively, he has a career .650 OPS in 1,300 at bats, as he only has 45 extra base hits. His career OBP (.325) is too low for a lead-off hitter.

    And his arm is a huge limitation, I don't know if they keep a stat about runners advancing, but he would have to lead the category or be close. So I think he is a #9 hitting center fielder on a poor team. Clearly he had no value on the Twins, you can't have a guy like that in LF or RF.

  4. #24
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cmathewson View Post
    Guys learn new pitches all the time. Johan Santana was a FB/Slider guy when we got him. He added a plus change at age 23 and, if I recall correctly, he became a pretty good pitcher.

    When talking about guys developing after a certain age, we normally focus on the limitations of their bodies. You don't expect a guy to add velo after 24. But adding or refining a breaking pitch is actually quite common. It's not like he doesn't have one. He has two. But they're "fringy" to use Jonathan Mayo's term.
    OK but changeup guys can relieve too, they don't have to start.

    Obviously May should continue working to improve all his pitches. If he is going to figure out an effective breaking pitch it had better happen yesterday because as you say his velo is only going to drop which will start to impact the effectiveness of his best pitch (the changeup).

    Personally I think when a 23 year old posts the same season in AA as he did at 22, there is a high probability he has reached his ceiling, that being relief. Hope I'm proved wrong though.

  5. #25
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    OK but changeup guys can relieve too, they don't have to start.

    Obviously May should continue working to improve all his pitches. If he is going to figure out an effective breaking pitch it had better happen yesterday because as you say his velo is only going to drop which will start to impact the effectiveness of his best pitch (the changeup).

    Personally I think when a 23 year old posts the same season in AA as he did at 22, there is a high probability he has reached his ceiling, that being relief. Hope I'm proved wrong though.
    I didn't say his velo is only going to drop, just that it is not likely to increase. Guys with his frame are known to retain their velo into their 30s. The fact that his velo stays consistent into the seventh inning is an indicator that he is likely to do so, barring injury. That, combined with spotty control, makes him a much better fit for starting than relieving.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by tobi0040 View Post
    That is exactly what my premise was. In May I think you have either a good starter or a very good set up guy. I am not convinced Revere is a major league player, certainly not one on a good team. Offensively, he has a career .650 OPS in 1,300 at bats, as he only has 45 extra base hits. His career OBP (.325) is too low for a lead-off hitter.

    And his arm is a huge limitation, I don't know if they keep a stat about runners advancing, but he would have to lead the category or be close. So I think he is a #9 hitting center fielder on a poor team. Clearly he had no value on the Twins, you can't have a guy like that in LF or RF.
    Ben Revere was not viewed as a guy with no future in the OF though....they traded a starting OFer with a positive WAR (you might want to look at defense too) in the majors, and so far have a AA prospect who did not progress, and an injured MLB pitcher that posted a negative WAR. That's not a good return, yet. To say they have a positve return already is strange to me. The Twins lost year 1 of the trade. There really is no way to debate that. If May doesn't play here, and Worley doesn't....well, they will lose year two of the deal also. Even if Worley does, if Revere is healthy and plays like 2012, I doubt Worley matches him. Doesn't mean I've given up on May, but I don't know how people can even come close to claiming with any certainty the Twins are ahead in this deal.
    Lighten up Francis....

  7. #27
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer View Post
    Personally I think when a 23 year old posts the same season in AA as he did at 22, there is a high probability he has reached his ceiling, that being relief. Hope I'm proved wrong though.
    Typically, I'd agree, but I wouldn't discount the organizational change. I'm sure the Twins' protocol for May's development asked him to do some things that made it necessary for him to repeat the league and held down his results.

    If May can stay healthy and even produce league-average results--that has a lot more value coming out of the rotation at 150-180 innings than say better-than-average results at 80 innings coming out of the bullpen.

  8. #28
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Ben Revere was not viewed as a guy with no future in the OF though....they traded a starting OFer with a positive WAR (you might want to look at defense too) in the majors, and so far have a AA prospect who did not progress, and an injured MLB pitcher that posted a negative WAR. That's not a good return, yet. To say they have a positve return already is strange to me. The Twins lost year 1 of the trade. There really is no way to debate that. If May doesn't play here, and Worley doesn't....well, they will lose year two of the deal also. Even if Worley does, if Revere is healthy and plays like 2012, I doubt Worley matches him. Doesn't mean I've given up on May, but I don't know how people can even come close to claiming with any certainty the Twins are ahead in this deal.
    The Twins traded an organizational strength and a player who had likely out performed his ability for an organizational need (young starting pitching). That the deal hasn't totally panned out for the Twins (or the Phillies) doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade at the time.

  9. #29
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    I don't want to give the impression that I am overly optimistic about May, but his secondary stats improved a lot between '12 and '13. Specifically, his FIP decreased from 4.88 in '12 to 3.78 in '13 DESPITE having an inversely proportional BABIP of .292 vs. .329.

    At the risk of making people 'throw up in their mouths a little bit', I would be happy if we could get as much out of May as we got from another Phillie trade (Carlos Silva), who is vilified despite out-performing his salary by >300% during his 4-year career with the Twins (FG value of $31M vs. actual salary of $9.6M).
    Last edited by TRex; 01-17-2014 at 02:13 PM.

  10. #30
    Senior Member All-Star cmathewson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    The Twins traded an organizational strength and a player who had likely out performed his ability for an organizational need (young starting pitching). That the deal hasn't totally panned out for the Twins (or the Phillies) doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade at the time.
    This. Last year, the Philies got more WAR than the Twins, obviously. This year, it could be a wash. Next year, I expect the pendulum to swing the Twins way. There is a bit of a timing problem. We sure could have used Revere in the outfield last year. But he is not the long-term solution. So when the Phillies offered that deal, we could not pass it up, regardless of short-term needs. I don't recall anyone on this board who thought the Phillies got the better of the deal when it was made. It just didn't go as well as hoped, yet.
    "If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    The Twins traded an organizational strength and a player who had likely out performed his ability for an organizational need (young starting pitching). That the deal hasn't totally panned out for the Twins (or the Phillies) doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade at the time.
    I didn't say it was, I said there is no way to say they have a positive return yet, as someone here is saying. And, it is only a good trade if it works.
    Lighten up Francis....

  12. #32
    Twins News Team All-Star PseudoSABR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    And, it is only a good trade if it works.
    I disagree. There's a variety of reasons why players succeed and fail that go well beyond what a team can anticipate.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    The Twins traded an organizational strength and a player who had likely out performed his ability for an organizational need (young starting pitching). That the deal hasn't totally panned out for the Twins (or the Phillies) doesn't mean it wasn't a good trade at the time.

    So your saying the Twins couldnt have used Ben last year ? What was out leadoff OBP last year, how many times did we have catchers in the outfield? There was a need for Revere last year and posibly this year as well

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by PseudoSABR View Post
    I disagree. There's a variety of reasons why players succeed and fail that go well beyond what a team can anticipate.
    Agreed on some of that. If a guy with no injury history gets hurt, that's not the team's fault. But if May is just bad, and Worley is just bad, then that is on the scouts and the GM, isn't it? If not, why does it matter who the GM and scouts are, if they aren't accountable for their decisions.
    Lighten up Francis....

  15. #35
    Senior Member All-Star Willihammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TRex View Post
    I don't want to give the impression that I am overly optimistic about May, but his secondary stats improved a lot between '12 and '13. Specifically, his FIP decreased from 4.88 in '12 to 3.78 in '13 DESPITE having an inversely proportional BABIP of .292 vs. .329.
    BABIP wouldn't affect FIP one way or the other since its only measuring Ks BBs and HRs.

    But true his K, BB, and HR rates all ticked positively in 2013. But May has always had reverse platoon splits (either because fo the strength of his changeup or weakness of his breaking pitches - probably both). And in 2013 he faced a higher proportion of LHBs.

    Might not explain all of the improvement but probably some.

  16. #36
    Twins News Team All-Star TheLeviathan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Agreed on some of that. If a guy with no injury history gets hurt, that's not the team's fault. But if May is just bad, and Worley is just bad, then that is on the scouts and the GM, isn't it? If not, why does it matter who the GM and scouts are, if they aren't accountable for their decisions.
    This is a good point. Just because it's hindsight doesn't mean it wasn't a bad trade if May and Worley wash out and Revere sticks around. You can say the idea/method was good at the time, but something went wrong in the deal if it didn't pan out. You can still say that without totally trashing the thought process.

  17. #37

    Angry Trevor May AFL

    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs View Post
    People should listen to the tremendous interview that the Talk to Contact podcast guys had with Trevor May on Wednesday night. They asked some great questions and got into his mind. It sounds like he learned a ton from his time in the AFL. He made some great points and gave great insight into what he's thinking and working on.

    http://talk2contact.podomatic.com/en...20_07_22-08_00
    Was fortunite to see Twins prospects in the AFL and hate to say it but compared to the competition out there we are overating our prospects. May will look like Liam Hendricks if he gets to big league.

  18. #38
    Senior Member All-Star Thrylos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnydakota View Post
    So your saying the Twins couldnt have used Ben last year ? What was out leadoff OBP last year, how many times did we have catchers in the outfield? There was a need for Revere last year and posibly this year as well
    I hated the Revere trade, because I like him and he is one of those charismatic good energy guys. That said, if the Twins had Revere instead of Hicks starting at CF, how many more games would have won? 27 more games? Because that is what they needed to get to the post-season. So not much harm there...
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  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrylos View Post
    I hated the Revere trade, because I like him and he is one of those charismatic good energy guys. That said, if the Twins had Revere instead of Hicks starting at CF, how many more games would have won? 27 more games? Because that is what they needed to get to the post-season. So not much harm there...
    Agreeing keeping lil Ben would not have gained us 27 additional wins, but keeping a few of the 22 players we have let go in the last 4 years and maybe signing a few quality free agents to add to the mix could have gained us 25-30 additional wins, As for Bens future with the Twins,he would still be contributing this year and next as well , but yes I understand that 1 player doesnt make a championship team, but when you continue to down grade at every chance and have a 22 man turnover and continully to seek 1 dimenstional players because they are cheaper , well thats how you have 4 consecutive years of 90+ losses

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by mike wants wins View Post
    Ben Revere was not viewed as a guy with no future in the OF though....they traded a starting OFer with a positive WAR (you might want to look at defense too) in the majors, and so far have a AA prospect who did not progress, and an injured MLB pitcher that posted a negative WAR. That's not a good return, yet. To say they have a positve return already is strange to me. The Twins lost year 1 of the trade. There really is no way to debate that. If May doesn't play here, and Worley doesn't....well, they will lose year two of the deal also. Even if Worley does, if Revere is healthy and plays like 2012, I doubt Worley matches him. Doesn't mean I've given up on May, but I don't know how people can even come close to claiming with any certainty the Twins are ahead in this deal.

    As cited before, Ben Revere was one of the top 5 hitters in baseball from his reinsertion into the Phillies starting lineup in late-April until his season-ending injury in July.

    It is a suspension of disbelief to think that Worley is somehow going to all of a sudden regain his form from 3 years ago. I like May's cerebral approach to improving his performance as a potential MLB starter, but the jury is still out on if he can ever reach his ceiling. If he eventually becomes a Matt Guerrier-type with Worley getting released for ineffectiveness, how will that justify that the Twins won the trade?

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