No matter how confident a team is with a second round draft pick, there is just no such thing as a sure thing.
I believe most people on here are really underestimating pedro florimon. Baseball reference had him as a 2.1 WAR last year, third best on the team. It is also difficult to find a 10/10 SS, which Pedro is. With a little bit of improvement at the plate to say .250 BA, with his defense, you are talking about a top 10 SS in the game. Even if he doesn't make a big jump at the plate the Twins can still win with him at SS just putting up a 2 WAR. I would like them to spend their time addressing other issues, like the fact Alex Presley should never start in Center Field for a real winning baseball team, or playing all your extra catchers and first baseman in right field with a bad fielding LF and CF then wondering why fly ball pitchers are bad. Pedro is not the problem and Bartlett is not an answer, he hasn't been good in about 5 years.
I like how people keep expecting a little improvement at the plate and how he could hit .250. On the flipside with any regression he has a <.600 OPS. He's a tolerable placeholder but there is no way that he is part of the long term plans.
The proving line is typically 4000 professional plate appearances--2000 in the majors, before a professional hitter is properly seasoned. With all due respect, I don't think this is the year to give up on Florimon, and his 606 MLB PA's.
Florimon will hardly equal Ortiz's numbers even if they threw underhand to him for the rest of his MLB at bats.
There should be very little debate that Florimon is a poor hitter and not an option that a teams wants going forward. He's an acceptable stop gap because of his defense but it's a position that the Twins should definitely try to upgrade. I'm not very optimistic that Santana is that upgrade so it will likely have to come from outside the org.
In regard to giving up the value of a 2nd round pick, I don't know the exact percentages of a 2nd round pick reaching the majors and becoming at least a solid, contributing ball player regardless of position. Considering the very unsure and volatile nature of the draft in general, it certainly can't be a high percentage. But simple logic would dictate it is a higher percentage/occurrence than a 3rd round pick, or a 4th or 5th, etc.
So I believe the debate has to be the willingness to give up that possibility of potential for a so-called "proven commodity". And in some cases, especially when a team is there, or almost there, the sacrifice is probably a good idea. Conversely, doing this fairly often further deprives a team of actually finding a good young player. Further, a prospect may not even help your team directly, but may be traded directly or packaged to make another move to acquire a helpful player.
Losing a second round pick by itself may not have a lasting affect on a team. (Though there is always the risk of missing out on someone good) But there is also the culmative affect of repeatedly doing so, not to mention the affor mentioned trade possibilities. The ability to acquire talent, depth of talent, is a valuable resource in any sport.
Certainly not opposed to the Twins improving at SS, but there is the possibility that Floriman improves at least some offensively. Or he may be part of a platoon with Escobar. Or Escobar may yet win the spot outright. And we don't know yet how good Santana may turn out. (Or Goodrum a couple years away) I don't resist change, just don't want t knee jerk a change on a re-building team that does, at least in the short term, have some options to consider. At least in the short term.
Everybody knows that Florimon plays good defense. The problem is that no amount of defense overcomes a .600 OPS. And I think there is a good chance that he is <.600 OPS this year. Yes, MLB SS's suck at hitting but good teams do not consider that type of player a long term piece. He's a placeholder.
He OPSd .799 or better every year with the Twins except his age 23 season, where he got 25 PAs.
I think he was "properly seasoned" before the Twins made one of the the worst "logical" choices in the history of the franchise.
Florimon, on the other hand, has had only one level ABOVE rookie ball where he managed to break the .700 level. He is 27 years old.
With all due respect, Florimon is never going to hit.
So what is the Twin's #2 selection worth? I took a look at all the players picked #5 in the second round, over the past 25 years or so, dating back to the time when a certain MLB franchise won its first World Series. Yes, a very unscientific study that doesn't factor in compensation rounds, upcoming trades, and other variables that are still pending...
The most recent 2nd round #5 draftee to make "The Show" is Anthony Gose (2008), followed by Josh Fields (2007), Chris Tillman (2006), Yovanni Gallardo (2004), Shane Costa (2003), Darrell Risner (2002), Rene Rivera (2001), and Rob Bowen (1999).
Milton Bradley (1996)
Brian Hunter (1989)
And, going back a little further....
George Brett (1971)
Bill Buckner (1968)
Ozzie Smith: .666 OPS for his career (sub .500 for his first four seasons)
Greg Gagne: Sub .500 over his first 350 plate appearances, and then he started raising his slugging percentage.
Again, there are other examples. It's just that I LOVED seeing these guys bring their talents to the game. They made their teams better.
By the way, I ran into a guy from Massachusetts while on vacation last week. He played against Gagne during high school. He remembered Gagne as a pretty average ballplayer, who just kept working on his game. It was a fascinating conversation, especially given the backdrop of this thread. How cool, huh? It's another testimony to hard work.
Some scout in the Yankees organization found promise in this hard-working kid from Fall River, MA. Three years later he's traded to the Twins for Roy Smalley (yes, and we picked up Ron Davis too... Yikes!). We know what happened with Davis, but the gem of the deal was a shortstop who kept working on his game and became a fixture in the Twins lineup for seven years--their starting shortstop for fourteen very meaningful postseason games.
Thanks for the conversation, guys. I hope to pick it up again during the football games tomorrow afternoon.
Im sorry, Florimon is pretty good defensively but he is not in Simmons or Iglesias level. He has a good arm, very good range but misses to many gimme's. The consistency just isnt there to be at their elite level.
Simmons is that good.