You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.ph...signating-a-DH
You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.ph...signating-a-DH
I read somewhere when the deal was signed that Kubel was confident he would make the roster. I think the Twins had something worked out with him to sign a minor league deal keeping him off the 40 man roster to give them time to make moves. Kubel should also be a better corner outfielder than Doumit. Rotating Willingham, Kubel, and Arcia between the corners and DH spots.
I know draft picks are valuable especially the first round draft picks but if you can get a serious upgrade for your team and you have the money to do it we should. If we signed Cruz and Drew we would probably be contenders next year if not in 2015 when the last 2 offensive holes get filled by Buxton and Sano.
Kubel expects to make this team, but do not think that is a sure thing. If he makes the team Parmelee is gone. You need to give at bats to Arcia and hopefully Willingham at DH. Anyother plan makes no sense.
I always thought Kubel was at least an average fielder as well; better than Doumit in the OF at least, and Willingham as well.
Money should be the least of the Twins concern. At the moment, the Twins are at least 20 million under their 50% of revenue. In the last 20 years, only five 2nd round picks have made it to opening day rosters. Slowey, Swarzak, Baker, Crain, Jones
Are these good enough reasons to block improvements to the Twins lineup?
I think Kubel's numbers are going to go up returning to American league in the designated hitter roll. With Kubel national league to get his at bats he had to play everyday and with poor knee I believe it took a toll on his batting. He can play outfield but is below average although much better than Doumit can play outfield. He's one of few left hand bats that has hit for power in Target field. I think this is much up grade for Twins and it appears he's left Ryan time to adjust his 40 man roster before spring training.
Twins next move should be to move Willingham; then make the decision that your DH is going to be Colobello/Kubel. That being done - task #2 should be to sign Cruz - now you have room for him in the everyday lineup. Outfield would be Arcia-Hicks-Cruz. Now you can dump Mastro and Parms - keep Kepler and Pressley. Bat Hicks 7th, - Nice power potential in the outfield.
Unless they're sold on the likes of Darin Mastroianni, Alex Presley, Eduardo Escobar and Danny Santana as players who can hold their own in somewhat prominent roles, the Twins should be scouring for backups and utility types who can offer some offensive value.
Just as an addendum, to that end, it sounds like the Twins have some interest in Justin Turner, who would fit the bill pretty nicely.
I like the Kubel signing and the moving of Doumit. If Kubel hits, great, if not. I'm still happy with the risk/reward and the moving of Doumit. The Twins are trying to move Colabello too, which is more for the roster spot/playing time rather than his cost (x<$590k) to the team.
Cruz and Drew are not good investments of WAR to value to players we already have. $13-$14M per season for 1 more WIN at SS (Drew 3.1, Florimon 2.1) and Cruz is one more suspension away from being suspended for an entire season. He's also only played more than 128 games once in 8 seasons. He's also a defensive liability in the OF, even cost the Rangers a World Series.
2009 - 128g 33HR 2.6 Def (Fangraphs) 3.0 WAR
2010 - 108g 22HR 5.3 Def 4.9 WAR
2011 - 124g 29HR -12.2 Def 1.3 WAR
2012 - 159g 24HR -11.2 Def 1.1 WAR
2013 - 109g 27HR - 9.7 Def 1.5 WAR
Honestly, if Josh Willingham is healthy, he's going to give you about equal production at half ($7M) the cost, without any sort of commitment beyond 2014.
2008 - 102g 15HR 3.4 Def (Fangraphs) 2.7 WAR
2009 - 133g 24HR -10.2 Def (Fangraphs) 2.4 WAR
2010 - 114g 16HR - 7.1 Def 2.6 WAR
2011 - 136g 29HR -12.8 Def 1.8 WAR
2012 - 145g 33HR -17.0 Def 3.6 WAR
2013 - 111g 14HR -13.2 Def 0.0 WAR
Next Summer's SS Free Agent Class includes:
Asdrubal Cabrera (29)
J.J. Hardy (32)
Jed Lowrie (31)
Hanley Ramirez (31)
I'd rather pay any of them the $10-14M per year that it would take have Drew under contract at least through 2014. Drew isn't a moron though, he'll look for a 3 year deal, as no telling if he'll be able to complete it with his injury history.
I'd have no problem paying any of those 4 guys $14M per season, in 2015, when Buxton, Sano, Arcia, and Rosario are ready to contribute to a competitive team.
The depth all across the board is better, from 3B to OF to SS to starting pitching.
Don't get into bad contracts that will hurt signing Free Agents in 2015, when the Twins will actually be looking to be competitive.
Yes, the Twins could use a utility guy like Turner who can play all four infield positions if push comes to shove thus making Parmalee useless. And you would probably still keep two of the Bartlett/Escobar/Florimon team.
Kubel qualifies as an Article XX(B) signing (a major league FA signing a minor league deal).
If Kubel fails to make the major league roster out of spring training and accepts a Rochester assignment, he'll automatically be given a $100K "retention bonus" and be eligible for a 6/1 opt-out.
Thanks Jeremy. Good info.
Nick suggests the Twins have a sensible plan in place to start the season. I am not sure that the "plan" is in place, yet. They seem to be still looking around for some more help, if the interest in Davis was genuine. In any case, I am not sure what the plan is for Kubel. Is he to be the primary DH? Perhaps a platoon OF, or some complicated arrangement involving both corner positions and DH? Or maybe he is more of a hedge against the likiehood that both Arcia and Hicks may not be ready for the majors to start the season?
Personally, I can't imagine that at this point of his career, Kubel would block full time playing time for Arcia or Hicks either for that matter, when the Twins decide they are ready for that. So I expect that there should be a move or two before ST starts and quite likely another move or so to begin the season, if the Twins decide to roll the dice and play both Arcia and Hicks full time right out of ST.
The situation is complicated by the status of Plouffe, who is likely an outfielder when Sano arrives, if Plouffe shows he can hit enough to warrant a corner spot. I am not sure the Twins are quite ready to give up on Parmelee yet, either. He is clearly direct competition for whatever role Kubel might get.
I appreciate the fact that the Twins don't want to be caught short in the outfield, and end playing the likes of Clete Thomas or the Rene Tosoni's of the AAAA world for extended periods. But, at this point I don't see a clear plan.
Honestly, I have to think the next stage is executing some trades. The roster is crowed right now, and other than a short stop, there really isn't a glaring position of need that won't be upgraded from the farm in the near future.
Kubel's injury history is not encouraging.
Kubel was OPSing .928 through July 2012. On July 13, he pulled his (left) hamstring on against the Cubs, left the game. He OPSed .624 in August, Sept and October.
In spring 2013 his left knee - the one he tore up in 2004, was bothering him again. He had it drained twice. And in compensating for the knee, he strained his left quad.
I still like Kubel's ability to produce when healthy, he's only 31. But realistically, any production out of him next year should be considered a bonus. He had all winter 2012-2013 to heal and still came into ST and his knee was bothering him. Its been and will continue to be a chronic problem. Jason Kubel is "injury prone."Quote:
“I think what really might have (hurt) was that I got into a lot of bad habits in the spring because of my knee,” Kubel said, “so I was swinging different. And then in the last month or so I’ve been working on it pretty hard and finally got back to using the legs, and I think that kind of flared it up again.”
Willingham as DH is better, with a real OF in the field, given the pitching staff. I don't get how that isn't clearly the plan.....As for money.....the obsession with "bad" vs "good" contracts continues to baffle me.....as long as they have tens of millions sitting around, there is no bad contract other than 1 that incents them to block a good young player (like, you know, Pelfrey....).