Continuing in the theme of creating a thread about every available player mentioned on mlbtr, I was thinking about Brett Gardner. The Twins probably don't have what the Yanks want in trade much, but he might be a good fit here. If they didn't have such a full outfield, they seem like they might have been interested in buying low on Willingham. If the Twins do find a taker for Willingham, Doumit, or one of the Chrises (who obviously have no real value) it would be fun to bring Gardner into the fold.
I don't necessarily believe a deal will be done, but I shudder to think about all the fly balls dropping in for hits with the current outfield arrangement. Willingham and/or Doumit should be moved for next to nothing, IMO, and having Gardner alongside Presley (or even Hicks) would be a huge defensive upgrade. I know it seems very piranha-esque, but it's not like Willingham, Doumit, Parmelee, or Collabello have defined the offense. Let Arcia be the least capable out there, at least he's young enough to dream on.
If the outfield defense is improved, can the team be respectable offensively with only Mauer, Dozier, Arcia and to a lesser extent Plouffe and maybe Pinto as XBH threats?
Not sure that Gardner brings anything to the table that Alex Presley does not. Gardner has a career 97 OPS+ (2000+ PAs), Pressley 98 (850 or so PAs). Presley is 2 years younger. Gardner could steal a base once upon at time, but I don't think that he is much better than Presley at this department right now.
OPS+ is a poor one number analysis. Presley has a .300 career OBP while Gardner has a .350 OBP with K and BB rates that suggest long term success. Gardner is a far better defender and has disruptive speed on the bases. the result is that Presley is a solid 4th OF'er while Gardner is incredibly valuable. It really isn't even close.
Originally Posted by Thrylos
I would instantly trade for Gardner but the Twins don't have the pieces. The only thing that could interest the Yankees is Dozier because they need 2B/3B and SP. But Dozier currently isn't nearly as valuable as Gardner although if he repeats last season it would be closer.
Alex Presley is a 4th outfielder / AAA caliber player. I'd be very happy with an Arcia / Gardner / Hicks outfield.
Going to agree here, though in the short term, yes, I think Gardner would be a great fit. Hopefully Buxton will truly be on a fast track to the show. But even without that possibility, I see the Twins OF taking on a pleasing shape next year. At least potentially.
Originally Posted by Thrylos
I see Presley in LF sharing time with a healthy Mastro, though I think a piece might still be added. I heard Raja Davis being mentioned in another thread and see that as a solid possibility. Some combination there gives us range and defense, decent production at the top of the lineup, with the young, talented, improving, and strong-armed Arcia in RF.
As I have stated in a few other posts, Hicks is the key. While rushed last year, and obviously disappointing, the talent is still there. And we did see flashes, and improvement before injury. Even if you allow for Hicks to be learning on the job, his defense in CF, his potential power and speed on the bases would all be helpful, even if he hit only .230-.250.
With 500 AB you might even see 30+ doubles, a few triples, and possible 20/20 potential just on talent alone.
Willingham needs to be a DH primarily, forcing Doumit out.
One more, I hope we can find a way to hold on to Parmalee somehow. I'm not yet ready to give up on him just yet. He and Plouffe might be good DH, OF and INF reserves a year from now if Sano makes his move.
I like Gardner a lot, but I don't think he'd be a big upgrade on Presley. If it was substantial I would work a trade, but Gardner is already 30.
Taking a quick look at Baseball Refrence, here's a comparison chart.
(Category): (Who's better)
AVG: Gardner slightly
OBP: Gardner by a lot
HRs: Presley hits twice as many
OPS+: As Thrylos said, Presley 98 to 97.
WAR: I can't say how relevant this is, but per season Gardner leads 3.22 to .25. BTW Presely had a negative WAR with the Twins in 2013.
Fld Prct: Gardner .991 to .986.
Range Factor per Game: Gardner 2.11 to 1.71
And in base stealing, Gardner still looks capable with 24 at age 29 last year. Presley has been caught stealing 15 times and only got 20 bases. And that's before he was 28.
Gardner is clearly better, but there's no reason to upgrade, especially depending on how valuable the Yankees might think he is.
I would rather just sign Rajai Davis than give up a prospect for Gardner...
I like Gardner, and he'd be an upgrade and a nice leadoff hitter, but he's a just one year upgrade. He's a free agent in 2015. Trading anything of value for one year for Brett Gardner, just to help them bet closer to average in 2014, is missing the point. If they want to sign a free agent for CF for a year, I'm fine with that, because it's just money and they can always slide a CF to the corner...but I'm not fine with giving up anything to trade for one.
I think that Gardner is what the Presley's and Mastro's of the world aspire to become. The argument that is being made about Gardner not being a huge upgrade over Presley could have been made by Yankees fans about Ellsbury over Gardner to some extent. Unless the Yankees are selling Gardner for peanuts the Twins aren't in on him anyways, its just fun to dream of an outfield with some ability to cover ground. TF has a lot of ground!
I don't really want to get involved in such a trade, but Gardner is, without a doubt, significantly better than Alex Presley. They aren't really that close. Gardner has averaged about 3.2 WAR in 6 seasons.
Dozier for Gardner! I know its a pipe dream, but I'd do it in an instant.
So would the Yankees. Dozier is 4 years younger with 5 years of team control. As players I would say they are roughly equal but Dozier could still get quite a bit better. It would not be surprising if he had 20 bombs and improved his OBP.
Originally Posted by Marta Shearing
A Gardner-Buxton-Hicks OF is pretty enticing, but no.
Cannot use cumulative measurements to compare 2 players when one has 3x the PAs in a given time.
Originally Posted by Shane Wahl
The OF is going to be Willingham, Pressley, Arcia with Mastroianni on the bench unless Hicks earns the CF job then it will come down to who is hitting better Pressley or Doumit. If Pressley is better then Willingham can DH and Pressley slides to LF with Hick taking over CF till Buxton is ready then it will be a competition between Pressley and Hicks for LF. I don't really see where we need to upgrade here. We have adequate across the board with potential improvements coming up.
The variable is if the Twins make a move such as signing Michael Young or someone else who can hit and play multiple positions.
At the winter meetings the cash strapped Phillies are supposedly open to trading Dominic Brown if they can get some starting pitching. They are also looking to move Papelbons salary 2/26 left.
The Twins need offense & Buxton will be ready soon. They still have payroll available.
Offer up Aaron Hicks, Trevor May, Kevin Corriea, & Jared Burton for Jonathon Papelbon & Dominic Brown.
Buxton will be ready just as soon as Hicks will be. Your future OF is now Brown/Buxton/Arcia with Rosario eventually unseating Arcia into more of a DH role.
Mays star has dulled some but is still a talent. He goes back to the NL as a 2015 # 5 for Philly with Corriea as the place holder. Hicks take Browns place in the OF. Burton can close & helps off set Papelbons salary. Who can hopefully rebound his value in a setup role & the Twins can have a 1 year rental trade chip in 2015.
The Twins would only take on $5 in payroll & with Willingham off the books next year it would be easier to absorb Papelbon if they couldn't move him.
That solves the power bat lineup problem very cheaply salary wise. There should still be enough payroll left to add Garza at 15 mill fairly easily to replace Corriea. If you need to do a salary dump & give away Duensing & Doumit that wouldn't be impossible.
Garza/Nolasco/Hughes/Deduno/Meyer (Gardy will get his way!)
Dozier, Mauer, Brown, Willingham, Arcia, Plouffe, Presley, Pinto, Florimon.
I would be stunned if the yankees would do that trade. I dont think dozier is their type of player.
Originally Posted by Major Leauge Ready
Originally Posted by Thrylos
Presley averages 1 WAR every 162 games. Gardner averages 4.5 WAR every 162 games. In my book this isn't even close.
Regardless of the 50 game suspension, trading dozier for gardner makes sense because it opens the door for rosario. Plus, with willingham gone in a year, Arcia moving to DH, and the question marks with hicks, I think gardner makes perfect sense.
Then again, move Rosario back to the outfield and keep dozier. Rosario will probably be a better hitter than gardner anyway.