It all depends on what the A's really want. If names like Rosario, Arcia, Gibson, May (top 20 guys) are being thrown around - no thanks. IF (big if) the Twins were to move those types of prospects, I'd like to see a little more sure-bet return than Anderson.
However, if it's true the A's want middle relievers - I'd entertain just about anyone on the roster that fits - Duensing, Swarzak, Worley, Pressly etc.
I just wanted to point out to the posters with injury concerns on Anderson, Garza has had elbow, shoulder and lat injuries over the last two years where Anderson's injuries were an oblique strain and a stress fracture in his foot.
That being said, I wouldn't trade multiple impact prospects for Anderson. I also wouldn't give Garza more than a Nolasco, Edwin Jackson type contract. As a team, you always should try to improve, even when you are this low on the win curve. However, you should be looking for value, not an overpay.
The question is, what are you willing to bet that is true? Your future starting LF/2B? A guy that most considered a number 3/4 for the last few years, who should now be recovered from surgery? Both of them?
No one is saying don't take a gamble on him. People are disagreeing on what to gamble (I think no one is saying don't gamble on him). People are also pointing out that for more money, but zero prospects, you can get a guy that seems recovered from surgery and has been a number 2/3 over his career.
While Anderson has a lot of upside, I don't know that I would give up one of our top 6-7 prospects. How about a package of lesser prospects? Considering Oakland's budget constraints and desire to dump some salary maybe a package like Kepler, Diamond or Worley, and another low-level prospect would get it done? Not sure if Diamond or Worley could stick in Oakland though.
I wouldnt give up any top 10 prospects for sure, probably not top 15 either. I would try & push Levi Michael packaged with someone like Worley & Burton but dont think that would do it. I would probably pull the trigger on a counter offer with Niko Goodrum, Worley, & Ryan Pressley.
You still have Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, & Eddie Rosario so you can afford to give up on a promising middle infielder.
Oakland has money for a change, they just took in Jim Johnson as a closer at $10mill. They are where the Twins hopefully will be in 2015-2018. Loaded with talented pre arbitration players stacking a cheap roster.
They wont just dump him for marbles. I get the injury history but most of it is realted to TJ issues with the elbow. He has "Ace stuff" and can dominate games when he is healthy.
I would happily part with a top 10-ish prospect for Anderson. Obviously not Sano/Buxton, but something below that.
Interesting name. He may or may not pan out in the end, that and his current salary obligations would be the big factor. The A's don't have a lot of roster space to just take guys, but a Worley and a couple of non 40-man depth minor league guys might pull the string. They got their closer. The pain about trading relief is that no one needs to trade for it until the season begins...enough names out there looking for jobs that CAN be reasonably priced (just former Twins Neshek, Guerrier, Crain alone).
As long as Worley is out of options and has a tenuous spot on the roster, he has no trade value. The Twins might be able to get a similar out of options player for Worley.
I think the A's will keep him unless they get an offer of real prospects. They don't need players on the fringe of another teams 25 and 40 man roster. They certainly don't need multiple fringe players.
He's pitched 160 innings combined over the past 3 years . . . . let that sink in.
Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden. Sure he's worth giving something up for but no way do they touch anyone in the top ten for him. Just not worth it. Especially with how good our top ten really is. I would say let them pick a reliever and a low level prospect with upside. Maybe that dude we got for Butera. or one of our GCL starters that everyone is hyped up on.
Both Anderson and Harden were up with Oakland at age 21, had early success and signed contracts through age 27. But through age 25 both had only pitched around 450 MLB innings due to repeated injuries, and neither pitched much from ages 23-25. (Harden had not yet had major surgery, however, and was the better pitcher through age 25: career ERA+ 124 to Anderson's 108).
Oakland got 13 good starts out of Harden at age 26 before flipping him to the Cubs for:
- their previous years sandwich pick (22 y.o. decent hitting college catcher in A-ball)
- a 22 y.o. starter with 10 good starts already to begin his career (7.5 K/9 and 103 ERA+, #82 preseason prospect)
- a 26 y.o. corner OF with an average MLB bat over almost 1000 PAs, wasting in AAA?
- a 25 y.o. MLB ready 2B with decent all-around minor league numbers but very little MLB experience to date
Think the Twins can match that?
(FWIW, only the catcher amounted to much in MLB, the late blossoming Josh Donaldson)
The Harden comp was more about injury than performance I guess. Brett Anderson doesn't have near the upside that Harden did as you pointed out. Plus I think teams are a bit more hesitant about trading prospect than they were a few years ago. Like I said, no one in the top ten, I would say one major league reliever and a young high upside prospect someone in the 15-30 range preferably. You can tell me I told you so if I'm wrong but I don't think they're going to get much more than that in any trade that happens in the offseason. Maybe some team will overpay, I don't think the Twins will do that. If it were me, I'd hold onto him and try to trade him at the deadline next year, hoping he puts together 10-15 good starts prior to that. The fact that the A's are trying to get rid of him when they are in win now mode would make me nervous as well. He could be a major piece for them this season.
Another way to look at it:
Using Sickels rankings, the Cubs traded their preseason 3, 4, and 6 prospects (plus Matt Murton, 26 y.o. ~100 OPS+ corner OF) midseason 2008 for Harden. All grade B (equivalent to Rosario or Berrios now).