40 man roster issues are the least of this teams problems
Berardino says the 2018 option vests with 400 combined innings in 2016-17.
That sounds like a bargain of an option. If a guy throws that many innings over two years, the Twins would probably be interested in keeping him regardless of the forced option.
Best news in a long time.
Can somebody tell me what happened to Nolasco at the end of the season? He fell off a cliff at the end of September getting clobbered in three consecutive starts to the tune of 19 runs over 11 innings. He gave up another 3 runs in a 4-inning post-season start. Was he pitching hurt or something? Should I be concerned?
Going to disagree with a couple points made here in different posts.
While no ace to be sure, Nolasco's overall numbers, especially the past 3 seasons when he may have finally, really learned to pitch, coupled with being n some pretty bad teams, suggests he's better than a #4 starter on almost any team. I see a legit #3 with the POSSIBILITY of a 2 on a good defensive team with decent lineup IF YOU CONSIDER the past 3 season numbers. Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But again, the past few seasons speak to me of a guy really learning what it is to be a pitcher now.
Plus, 31 at the start of the season puts him in prime years as there is a different scale to measure the growth of a SP vs just a hard thrower vs a position player.
I also take a small issue with the Twins defense over the next season or two. If the Twins sign a vet C, and I think it's a foregone conclusion we will, the names we are tied to are solid defensively. If we don't make the big splash of Salt or AJ, which I Think IS a good possibility, we might even sign two to give Pinto a little more time. Mauer will be solid to good a 1B as early as this season. Dozier is the real deal with the glove and will only get better with more play. Escobar is excellent as is Floriman with the glove, giving us a strong, young, and improving keystone combo. Arcia is young and needs improvement, but is fairly athletic with a good arm, s young, and will improve. The key is Hicks just hitting well enough to hold on to CF while providing speed and power and sort of learning and improving on the job. If so, then Pressley and/or Matro in left gives us a pretty good defense. Willingham is going to be playing more and more at DH with a little LF accounting for some shifts. And Molitor is on board now to help his transition.
Some combination of TO BE SIGNED, Nolasco, Correia, Gibson, Deduno, Worley, Diamond and eventually Meyer is the best rotation we've had in some time, with a potentially excellent defense behind them, and excellent bullpen backing them up.
TLDR: Nolasco is a #3 starter on 1 playoff team, a #4 on 7 teams and doesn't start for 2. To me that's all that matters, how does he compare to teams going to the playoffs.
Since Tanaka has no MLB statistics I don't know how he compares. Here is a case where his scouting report is pretty much all that matters. As for Nolasco, Garza, Jimenez and Santana here you go:
Where do these pitchers fit into a playoff rotation?
1Does not make rotation. Pitches from bullpen.
#3 #4 BP1 Ricky Nolasco 1 8 2 Matt Garza 1 7 3 Ubaldo Jimenez 4 9 1 Ervin Santana 4/52 9 1
2Santana and Cingrani tied. Cingrani had better SIERA and ERA- while Santana was better by both WARs. They tied for xFIP- at 93.
Jimenez and Santana would be #3 starters in about half of the rotations since there are 10 teams that make the playoffs. Garza and Nolasco are both #4 starters. Nobody makes the Tigers' rotation. Each of these pitchers would be #3 starters, at least, on non-playoff teams.
Shouldn't the Twins care more about projecting 2014?
I would guess any projection method would use the last three years while factoring in age.
If the analysis was projection based, would the conclusion be the same?
The only projections I have seen are from steamer. Nolasco is projected for 2.6, Garza 2.3, Jimenez 2.1 and Santana 1.8 WAR.
For my purposes I don't think projections would be applicable. We don't know which teams are going to make the playoffs in 2014. Many teams rotations are not filled out at this point and, perhaps most importantly, projections (I'm guessing here) don't handle mid-season callups particularly well and yet we're seeing that they have significant impacts on rotations during the playoffs. Would STEAMER have predicted that Michael Wacha would be the Cardinals #3 starter in the playoffs?
The Twins need 3 pitchers that are better than Nolasco and hoping that all three of Gibson, Meyer and May turn into front of the rotation starters is foolhardy. There has to be another acquisition of some variety (or two). If there isn't then the Twins are just biding time until Stewart, Berrios, Eades, Jorge, Thorpe and Gonsalves arrive in 2016+ and then more time while they get acclimated to MLB. I'm not in favor of waiting until 2017 to make a run at a championship. Are you?
It doesn't matter what these pitchers did last year. It matters what they can be reasonably expected to do next year.
Is is it reasonable to project a Nolasco as a number three starter on a playoff team? Maybe not. I am not sure that the other pitchers listed above would project better.
It really even takes more than an averaged projection. A guy like Jimenez might have a 40% chance of being very good and a 60% chance of being awful. His steamer projection may blend that somewhere in the middle. Any team considering signing him would be irresponsible to project based on 2013 only as they assess how he might fit in a playoff rotation.
Would ANYONE on the list be a number two starter on any playoff team?
On another topic, the Twins rotation – and lineup – would need to not only overtake Kansas City to make the playoffs, but Cleveland and/or Detroit as well. That's a tall order for 2014.
The twins won't make the playoffs next year, so get the knot out of your shorts. This is a process, "and there are no shortcuts...".