2013 LHB OPS: .873
2013 RHB OPS: .628
2013 Home OPS: .836
2013 Road OPS: .770
That is not a recipe for success in Target Field. He hit 12 of his 14 homers from the left side of the plate and 9 of them came at Fenway. I see a significant drop in those numbers going into Target Field.
But...I still don't see Salty mentioned anywhere on the page of that link with any sort of positive defensive metric.
All the numbers I quote are for his career. His entire sample size.
The playoffs were even worse, true, but even his 'entire sample size' (his entire career) is below average at best.
He's an offense killer...and he sucks behind the dish.
And you don't pay $10M a year to someone who is on the short end of a platoon in the World Series to a guy who's 36...and hits .220.
There is no scenario in the world where a guy getting $10M a year sits to that guy.
If he's a $4M platoon player...sure. But $10M, you're a starting every game type of player.
Additionally you could look at http://www.hittrackeronline.com/deta...62&type=hitter
10 of his 14 HR's (19 out of 25 in 2012) would have been HR's in 20+ parks in baseball by their estimation. I will take their estimates over your WAG.
It seems like most of the arguments against Salty are not actually factually based. We are talking about an easy .700+ catcher that deserves to be behind the plate (Doumit absolutely does not). If somebody prefers A.J. then that's fine but I'm just hoping they bring in somebody and 3/30 won't even make a dent into the available budget to find a starting pitcher or two.
Saying he sucks behind the dish (which most scouts and advanced stats would tell you otherwise) and using anecdotal stories don't erase what he is -- a more certain thing than what we have today and an above average performer at his position (we need more of those).
If the alternative is Doumit, I hope you're kidding. If the alternative is Pinto, you're taking a huge chance on an unproven player. If the alternative is some other free agent, okay make that case, but it's mostly a matter of preference.
B: Pierzynski/Herrmann/Fryer/Doumit - Pinto in AAA
C: Salty/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit - Pinto in AAA
D: Navarro/Fryer/Herrmann/Doumit - Pinto in AAA
Pinto needs to catch "everyday" regardless. If they sign a catcher, I would put a lot of money Pinto is in AAA catching everyday. If were going to sign a catcher, wouldn't you rather have it be the best guy? I'd take option C, 10 out of 10 times. Does anyone else see any other way this could go?
(BTW, It'd be either Herrmann or Fryer for those jobs, Doumit as the 3rd string catcher.)
Pinto should make the team and catch 75% of the games. That wouldnt be stunting his growth. There's nothing more for him to prove in the minors.
And for the last time, I don't care what he did in Texas, he like hundreds of players before him struggled when he was younger, then improved as the years went by. In his last 3 years he has a .763 OPS, which not only is above average overall, its down right very good for a catcher.
He also doesn't "suck" behind the dish, if the only thing you are using is fielding percentage (a terrible stat) and caught stealing (a stat that is very dependent on pitchers, which by the way he was only 4% lower than the league average last year) to convince me otherwise, it isn't going to work.
As per Fangraphs:
in 2013 Saltys Defensive Value was 7.3 (higher than both AJ and Mauer)
Doumit's was negative 12.9
In 2012 his D value was 5.5 (12th best in the league)
Doumit's was negative 7.9
In 2011 his D value was 4.7 (11th best in the league)
What does this all tell us? Salty is an above average hitter overall the last 3 years, and for a catcher he hits well. He brings value on the basepaths (2nd most amongst all catchers), he is in the top half of catchers defensively and improving every year. He is 28 and should continue to get better
When I see the advanced stats...Salty isn't very good.
Which advanced stats are you referring to?
The Boston Red Sox, the kind of advanced stats, started David Ross over Salty in 4 of the 6 games that mattered most.
People say 'advanced stats' but fail to show them. Makes no sense. I give you, Bill James (advanced stats guru) & The World Series Champions, The Boston Red Sox.
Josmil Pinto hit .342 and threw out 45% of base runners in his rookie year.
Those are the best numbers in MLB for September (the sample size he was in).
Salty has never been the best in any month of any season of his career.
Pinto is 1 for 1.
And he (Pinto) should continue to get better.
Passed balls are a judgement call, and basically are as pointless as errors. Should we dive into his RBI totals next?
As kab also showed, your notions about Salty being a Fenway only hitter was incorrect. AJ wouldn't be the worst signing, but he isn't a solution past next year, and he could fall off at any moment as 38 is a tough age for any player, much less a C
Can't we just all agree? We all like Pinto. Most of us have seen September success = April angst. This makes us all hesitant to just hand the job over to Pinto. Wouldn't it be better to have an insurance policy for Pinto? Or if Pinto lights the world on fire, have two good players instead of 1? We have the money. It's clear that defensively Pinto needs some work, minor or major, argue all you want on that subject, but 2014 Salty > 2014 Pinto.