You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...-Trade-Targets
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...-Trade-Targets
I'm not sure the Twins are at a point where they should be in 'win-now' trades. I love Zimmerman but I don't want to give up a lot for a guy who is a free agent in two seasons.
I would agree with that statement, but they would have two seasons to work out an extension or make another trade for different prospects. It just depends on how you view prospects. If you think that all prospects are worth keeping because they could pan out, then you don't trade any of them unless you have a massive surplus or get an offer that you can't refuse. If you view prospects as trade chips that can be used to acquire proven talent, then you make trades. I'm not sure one strategy is better than the other, but both have merit.
I think Samardzija will end up costing more in prospects than people realize right now. The Cubs have zero need to trade him as they still control him for 2 more years. He is their only high upside arm in or near the majors. That said, they would absolutely move him for a top 50 prospect. In a deal with the Twins I think it would have to start with Meyer and I just don't think that's a direction the Twins will go.
I'm not sure the Twins have enough depth anywhere to make a deal. I mean, even if you can deal a collection of non-Buxton, non-Sano prospects, the Twins still have a lot of holes to fill, all over the diamond. You'd still need to make multiple significant free agent moves to get close to contention.
And if that's the case, why not just make an extra free agent move in lieu of such a trade? Overpay for Ervin Santana if you must, but keep Arcia/Rosario/Berrios/Kepler and hope that one or two of them can be quality cheap contributors during Santana's contract.
Or just wait a year or two to make that extra free agent move (when these trade target pitchers could hit free agency). I'm fine with that, as long as they are making moves in the interim and not just waiting forever.
And flipping the player during his walk season is less valuable now that they won't return a comp pick for the acquiring team.
I think prospects can absolutely be used as trade chips. Doesn't mean a 5-for-1 blockbuster trade is a good idea when your MLB roster is so barren. I like the targeted 1-for-1 or 2-for-1 deals for more modest returns. Bill Smith was pretty good at this (Capps deal excepted) -- Pavano, Cabrera, Rausch, Fuentes. TR did it with Luis Castillo, arguably with Shannon Stewart, could have been more aggressive in other seasons.
My point would be that I don't know what Eddie Rosario or Jose Berrios will be as MLB players, but I have a pretty good idea of who Jordan Zimmermann is. Also, signing a free agent isn't as simple as just offering the most money. The player still has to want to come here. If you trade for a guy, you have time to expose them to the culture and let them see if they like it here. You can always trade them if it doesn't work out. The Cubs got a pretty good haul for Garza this past season.
Personally, I'd prefer the Twins sign Garza and someone else in free agency this off-season too, but if they can't do that, I'd have no problem with trading some prospects for a veteran, proven starter.
I just also don't think the Twins will be getting discounts on extensions for these guys, they'd need to trade for early arbitration or pre-arb guys to get discounts. So if you're paying the same as you will in free agency, you might as well just sign free agents and keep the prospects.
Good stuff. It would be great for the Twins to get Zimmerman but it would take a lot. At this point, I would not trade Meyer for any pitcher, he might be better than all of them in the list. If they could (and cannot until mid summer 2014) I'd rather see them trade Steward because he is a good 3+ years away (in this organization.) Would anyone be interested in Berrios? Can you build a dual head centerpieces with someone like Berrios & Rosario/Dozier? Toss in Kepler? Is that enough? Would Berrios, Rosario and Kepler bring back Zimmerman? I doubt it. Maybe adding Gibson would, which is an intriguing thought...
By no means do I think the Twins would get a discount if they trade for these players. However, a guy like Porcello might be cheaper now that he would be in two years.
Another point - 8 of the 10 guys I identified will be free agents at this time in 2015. That is, unless they are signed to extensions before then. More and more teams are signing their players to extensions before they hit free agency. I'd say the odds are good that at least half of those eight players are not free agents at this time in two years. Of the four potential names that remain, the Twins would be competing against 29 other teams for their services. They may not get a discount if they trade for them, but they do get exclusive negotiating rights.
Zimmermann's also one guy you'd only control for 2 more years. Not an excuse to not improve the team, but realistically the Twins aren't 2 years away from anything either.
The four prospects you give up to get him likely won't all pan out, but obviously if two of them do, that's multiple spots covered where Zimmermann was just one.
And even if only one of your prospects succeeds, that guy's 6 years of cheap production could exceed Zimmermann's 2 not-so-cheap years. (Think about it: if Arcia or Rosario has an MLB breakout next year, not only do we still control them for 5+ more seasons, we can probably buy out their arb/early FA relatively cheaply too, but that ship has already sailed with Zimmermann.)
The Twins do not have enough assets, as an organization and because of the near complete lack of talent in MLB, to be in a position to make such trades. I am not interested in trading for anyone unless it comes from a package deal of the Willingham-Santana-Harrison-Sulbaran-Baxendale variety. This doesn't get any of these pitchers, but the next tier of pitchers, perhaps. Signing FA pitchers gives them more assets.
Zimmermann is only 17 months older than Gibson. Porcello is 14 months YOUNGER than Gibson.
Good point though on these guys not necessarily lasting until free agency, though. I am very hesitant when folks suggest waiting for next year to go all-out for Bailey (or whomever). However, I'm not sure the best alternative is to trade for them. May be better to approach FA a bit more like the draft -- identify guys you really like every year and make serious efforts to sign them. You won't get them all, you will get skunked some years, but you will get some every so often. It won't break the bank, you won't get stuck needing to go after trades or less desirable free agents, and you won't be forced to seriously overbid much either.
Pretty sure if the Twins operated like that, and bid competitively, there wouldn't be any serious issues about getting free agents to come to Minnesota.
Completely agree with you spycake, I'd use free agency first too. I really agree with your idea for free agency too. Identify the guys you like and don't settle for those you don't. I'm obviously a little more willing to trade prospects for veterans, but I can understand why giving 3-4 players for 1 player isn't for everyone.
I wouldn't give up on Gibson, but to get a quality pitcher in return, I'd be willing to listen.
Can't really trade Gibson at this point. His upside is worth more than what he would bring in a trade at this point. He could be as good as a #2 and his floor (assuming health) is probably a #4 workhorse. With his solid GB rates he should be a guy that can give you 200 innings of around a 4.00 ERA. If his K rate translates pretty well to the majors he could be more around a 3.00 ERA and a nice top of the rotation arm.
With his bad first MLB performance his value is low but he's a guy a pitching starved team needs to hold onto and hope for the best.