BTW... Any resemblance between my helmet and an Ohio State helmet is purely coincidental.
BTW... Any resemblance between my helmet and an Ohio State helmet is purely coincidental.
I think I'm more interested in getting Kazmir & Hughes than Nolasco and whomever (Arroyo?). Last season was a bounce-back year for Nolasco after a couple years in a row where he gave up a TON of hits and the K rate kept going down. He's also pitched his entire career in the NL.
Kazmir has red flags too: injuries and ineffectiveness nearly ended his career. But his peak was higher, he did it in the AL, his K rate is higher, he's younger, and he's likely to be a) cheaper, and b) not insistent on a 5 year deal.
Hughes has been up & down over his career, but a move to Target field should help him, and he's still on the good side of 30.
I'm not opposed to Arroyo per se, but I'd like the Twins to be a little more aggressive than that. Again, Nolasco's not terrible or anything, but I have trouble with the idea of giving a 4-5 year deal to a guy who has hit 30 and posted an above average ERA+ exactly twice. (and was convincingly below average 4 of the past 5 years)
It was a very good article! A nice breakdown of Nolasco.
It sounds like from what MLBTR said, we aren't as far as people thought we were here on Nolasco, but it is encouraging to see our name in these rumors as what appears to be a serious suitor.
As for Nolasco and even a 4 (or worse 5) year contract, I still don't get it. I read the article, but looking at his career stats doesn't help me understand. Why? He's never been an amazing pitcher. He's pitched in the NL his entire career. It kind of makes me think Kevin Correia is a poor man's Nolasco in all honesty. Nolasco is better and younger, but not by huge margins IMO to deserve 4 or 5 years. He's on the wrong side of 30 and breakdown is much more possible now than before.
I see why the Twins are in on Garza. He's on the right side of 30 and has what we need in a pitcher. Plus we developed him and have an idea of what we'd be getting back. I see why we'd go after Hughes. He's not as good as Garza, but being in a pitcher's park and on the right side of 30 helps his cause. I could see Garza getting 5 years from us and I could even see Hughes getting 3-4 years.
Nolsaso though? Someone help me here. Even Arroyo ... he's 37 and durable, but 3 years? Maybe 2 years, but not 3.
What am I missing here? Help...
We all would love to have certain pitchers. But the reality is that the Twins front office have to deal with agents who realistically WANT to place their clients with a team like Minnesota, as well as players THAT WANT to play for a team like Minnesota. If a player and/or agent suggests that a Minnesota tie-in would be explorable, then you pounce on it. You can't wait for a Hughes to say "maybe I will play in Minnesota" if he is avoiding making a discussion commitment or has expressed salary demands above-and-beyond (see Santana) your team is capable of giving, or that a pitcher truly wants to play only for a "winner."
The only way we (the Twins) can possibly get around something like that is to totally throw an unbelievable contrat at the player -- "Hey, Hughes...we want you. How does $20 mill a year sound, you tell us 3 or 4 years...your choice."
Otherwise, you go after "friendly" players and make a serious offer "Hey, Ricky, right now, today...we will give you $14 mil for 4 with a $4 million buyout or $15 mill option for year 5. If we don;t hear back from you by tonight, we are moving on tomorrow." A fair offer. If you don't hear back...you got $60 million to easily spend elsewhere.
Nolasco isn't my favorite pitcher out there, but to give him a 4-5 year deal isn't the end of the world. When people say they don't want to block our young pitchers, they forget that the Twins would always have the option of trading away the older pitcher. As long as Nolasco stays similar to his career marks, he would still have a trade market in year 3 of the deal. And that's only if the Twins have a glut of pitching, something we have no idea will happen for sure.
Some interesting things being said. I agree with those who question the wisdom of signing Nolasco to a 4-year deal and over $40 million. It is *clearly* absurd to do that. The consideration of doing this blows my mind more than the Eric Fryer love and that is bizarre. Those two things, together, however, with this team run by these people . . . perfect sense.
Nolasco is Correia+. Do people deny this? I am asking. Christ, ARROYO is Correia+. And Arroyo is a 50/50 chance to actually be better over the next two years. Seriously.
Let me frame this another way: I also think that Trevor May is a 50/50 chance at being better than Nolasco over the next four years. And at a very low fraction of the cost.
Think about that.
Signing 4th starters for tens of millions of bucks over several years is going to damage FA signings by this team in the next 3 years.
Not that the Twins had a pitcher that they should have considered recently and they've actually bungled moving players recently who they've moved quickly or had skip levels, so I agree there's far more to this than two opposing methods.
"Nolasco is Correia+".
Wouldn't that be the point? To get pitchers into the rotation who are better than Correia? And at this point, isn't money next to meaningless for the Twins, since they have oodles of it going unused, and won't that be the situation for the next half decade at least?
Would still prefer 2-3 years of Kazmir and 1-2 of Josh Johnson. This will save money(shorter term contracts) and not block the pitchers coming up. If you want to spend major money throw it a Garza(at least he has a high upside and no qualifying offer)
Issue would be if Garza, Johnson and Kazmir will come here. I would offer more money for the shorter length contracts and see if they take it, if not move on to plan B. But don't wait for the higher ranked pitchers to see what they want to do, make an offer, give them(or their agents) 2 days to accept and if not go to plan B.
Hughes is not going to be a $20M per year player. Hughes is not going to be a $15M per year player. Moreover the Twins do have a number of selling points to offer a guy like Hughes: willingness to pay him on a 2-3 year deal while he gets time to bounce back and get one more big payday, a ballpark that plays well to his fly-ball tendencies, a media market that isn't going to immediately crush him the first start he's not Andy Pettite or Mike Mussina, and a bunch of young offensive players in the pipeline. Why not court him? Why not get him in to the Twin Cities and have him hang out with Joe Mauer over at Target Field?
Hughes is a guy that's on my radar because he's a guy that a) is gettable, and b) should have success here at a reasonable price. Nolasco is a guy that already seems over-priced and destined to bust.
If Nolasco wants crazy money and to many years,Why not Target E.Jackson, he has 3 years left at 13 million per, his numbers have to be close to Nolasco.Then adding Arroyo(2years) and Johnson(1 +1 ..1 year 9 million and an option year at 16 million) and hope 2 of the 3 work out. Jackson while struggling still had better numbers then over half of the 11 pitchers the Twins ran out and has a better upside
Summary - it's not going to be an issue and it's an awesome issue to have if it did happen.
Setting aside 2014 (since the Twins won't be competing), here's what I hope they do and what the rotation looks like in 2015 (pitching-wise):
1. Sign Garza to a four-year deal. He's consistently put up 3/4 starter numbers for the last six years, has made at least 24 starts in 5/6 of those years, and has had a cumulative era of under 4.00 in every one of those years. He's expressed a desire to come back to Minneapolis and shouldn't be that much more (if at all) expensive than Nolasco, so why not?
2. Trade Rosario and a throw in (Levi Michael?) for Porcello. Porcello is on the upswing, has two years of control left, the Twins will have money to resign him, and Rosario is expendable with the emergence of Dozier.
3. Sign Phil Hughes to a two-year deal. He's splits indicate that Yankee stadium is his problem. Two years bridges the gap until 2016 and also allows Meyer to fine tune his approach in AAA for 2014 until post-All Star break.
4. Draft the highest ceiling arm in the draft. The Twins need to keep the cupboard stocked.
So, to start 2014, the Twins could have a rotation looking like this:
and have Deduno, Worley, and Diamond in the mix
Around the trade deadline, I would want the Twins to trade Correia for whatever they could get, getting a prospect (a bad one, I'm sure) and opening up a spot for Meyer. So, on opening day 2015, the rotation would look like this:
Which isn't a bad set up, considering the 2013 rotation. Hopefully, Stewart, Berrios, Eades, etc would be able to push for rotation spots in 2016 just as Sano, Buxton, and Arica are hitting their strides and the supporting cast of Hicks, Mauer, Pinto, and Dozier are contributing.