I know this thread is about SP but we don't need a 1B.
We have Mauer there. It doesn't take a genius to figure out he's the face of the twins, we want him safe and healthy, look to have him at 1st this season. He has a great bat in the lineup and we prefer to have him in the lineup more. Now that we have Pinto up we should look to make Mauer into a full time 1st Basemen. He could move back to catch in desperate situations like if Pinto, Hermann and Doumit get injured.
I agree, Tanaka is a pipe dream at this point. The posting fee does not count against the soft cap, so why would we expect not to be outbid? I've stopped even considering him an option in my hopes for the offseason.
Let's say he matches his production for the total 2013 season and falls off in 2015 and then a little more in 2016 as you might expect from an aging SP. His war was 1.5 in 2013 and his ERA was 4.67. If he performs like he did the last 1/2 of the season it would be a great signing. If his production matches the year as a whole we will wishing we had the payroll space back in 2015 & 2016. If he slides at all, the same people calling for aggression just might be cursing Ryan up and down.
I agree, I don't see SF offering the QO. I also agree, giving up a pick will reduce the demand significantly.
Tanaka (5/50 with option plus a 50M posting fee). That comes out to 20M/year
Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.
That's 32.5M being spent to massively upgrade the rotation. I suspect Gibson will have a much better season and KC is well... KC. Worley, KC, or Gibson likely finds themselves being replaced by Meyer, May, and/or Darnell at one point in the near future.
You could substitute Hughes for Johnson or Lincicum, though both of them are going to be 1 or 2 year deals for a lot less cash. I'm not excited about Haren at all. I doubt Garza will want to return, and maybe I'm a bit queasy, but I think Santana's contract is one someone will be regretting quickly. Personally, I wouldn't give up a second round pick for anyone. In a deep draft, that's still a high enough pick to bring home an impact player. We can start talking about that when they in the plug a few holes phase.
Why would we consider Tanaka's posting fee as part of payroll from 2014-18?
New York Yankees begin organizational meetings | yankees.com: News
'The Yankees' interest in Tanaka is helped by the fact that the posting fee, which is likely to surpass the $51.7 million that Texas paid to negotiate with Darvish in January 2012, would not count against the luxury tax. '
So, knowing that, not not sure why we'd include it as part of payroll for the next five years either. Seems we have some money left over from payroll this year to at least help the fee needed if we were going to go that route.
Why on earth should we care about the accounting of a posting fee? The owner says "SPEND"--let's sit back back, wait, and find out how serious is this directive.
I think he may struggle to give a pitcher $10M+ per year, much less $20M (and yes I do realize not all of it goes to the pitcher).[/QUOTE]
Tanaka will most likly not be 20mil, due to the fact his comparison (Yu Darvish) got only 9.5 mil per year. Of course though with the success of Darvish will help bring the value higher priced maybe 11-16mil at highest, but there are the dodgers who have so much money it's falling out of there pockets they would be the team to hand him 20mil.
There is no way that Hughes is worth 12.5M a year, try more like 6M a yearQuote:
Hughes (4/50). This is 12.5M/year.
The fact that MLB does not count posting fees against the luxury tax is an entirely separate matter. The expense does not go away. It is payroll expense. Fans might want to ignore it as if it does not count but the Twins and any other business is not going to pretend it did not happen. There could be a question as to when it is recognized but as I wrote earlier, there are IRS requirements where this is concerned.
If it were allowed, and they wanted to recognize the expense this year, the total posting fee and salary would be attributed to 2013 expense. In other words, signing Tanaka and recognizing the posting fee this year would probably require the entire 2013 budget. That would not be the worst move long-term. Sign Tanaka and resign Pelfrey and look forward to having substantial budget in 2015 to continue building. It would give us an extra 8-10M/year over the rest of the Tanaka contract to build a team. I just don't think they can do it that way.
I think people are way off the mark when thinking about possible starters for next year. I can't see us signing anyone but I do think they will add through trades. Guys I think would be available would be Trevor Cahill in Arizona with guys like Bradley and Skaggs ready next year. Maybe a guy like Erasmo Ramirez in Seattle with walker, hultzen and Paxton ready. Maybe Brett Anderson in Oakland. Whoever it is I think will be a player no one is really talking about right now.