/ edit - scooped by Shane's post 3 minutes earlier!
Due to proximity I have seen or listened to a fair share of Giants games over the last couple years and Lincecum still has good stuff. He isn't the flame thrower he once was but the Ks are still there. I think it would be a decent gamble to bet that as he continues to learn to pitch instead of throw to deal with his decreased velocity he finds sucess again. Could this be the rare elusive pitcher that Anderson's coaching techniques can actually help? probably not but I would be happy to see him wearing a TC hat.
I would give up a 2nd rd pick easily for Lincecum. Lincecum is not 2008/2009 Cy Young Lincecum but his K's and swstr% (important stats for me) are both great and possibly double the typical Twins pitcher. He had an awful 2012 but he's been plagued by bad luck (Hr/FB% and LOB%).
tbh - I would be more interested 3-4 yrs of Lincecum at 50ish million (I am on my own here I know) than spending 100+M on Tanaka. the better option would be to get both. :th_alc: that is impossible though...
Josh Johnson is somebody that doesn't interest me unless we are talking 2 yrs 20M (or less). In a year or two he's going to be compared to Rich Harden. Great pitcher that just can't stay healthy. 1000 innings in 8 pro seasons and he's missed over half of the last 2 seasons.
I'm not a huge fan. Linci hasn't been very good the last two years. I'm not sure his present production warrants a QO, and if SF does this, I don't see anyone signing him. Looking at this stats, his biggest problems is that his HR/9 rate seems to have gone up significantly from his Cy young years. Putting him in TF might help that.
For me it comes down to a question that I'm not in the position to judge -- Does he have the desire to be the anchor of a pitching staff?
He has the age and experience I'm looking for. He has been at the 200 innings/year mark consistently.
If the Twins offer a premium for a 2 year deal (or 2 year with club option), does he want to be in Minnesota? does he want to prove himself? does he want to be the anchor of a young pitching staff?
I can't see what's in his heart. And for me the mental and personality factors on this one are really the determining factors because this team needs someone to lead the pitching staff.
I could see Lincecum going to Pittsburgh for some reason. Up and coming contender, ownership looking to build on a good core, and I think their pitching coach is well regarded around the league, which might appeal to a smart pitcher looking to regain some of his past success.
He's going to be an interesting case anyway. I think teams will hesitate to pay him like a top-of-rotation guy, but if he and his agent can sell one GM on his past success, then who knows. Even if he turns down the QO from the Giants, I imagine him getting more years but kind of don't see him getting $14M per year on the market.
I wouldn't mind him for a reasonable price, but no way that price includes a second rounder in this deep of a draft and a huge contract on top of that.
Lincecum likes SF too much to leave. Kind of a goofy dude and the city fits him perfectly.
And tbf the whole "weed is legal in WA har har" line is a moot point considering we are talking about him leaving SAN FRANCISCO.
And at the end of the day the Twins basically need to sign someone. Tanaka is likely getting 100+M. Garza isn't coming back. Kuroda is really old and he will resign with the Yankees. Hughes is someone that is intriguing but he has actually always performed. Josh Johnson pitches about 80 innings/season. Nolasco has always underperformed. Haren has really gone backwards and has fairly mediocre stuff if you watch him. Pretty soon you will find yourself shopping in the Correia/Saunders/Blanton neighborhood. If these questions didn't exist about Lincecum he would be getting a 100+M contract.
It's easy to find flaws in these pitchers--but then compare them to what the Twins have and the alternatives!
I'm interested in Lincecum, but not for the price. A 2 year deal isn't great for us because we're not contenders in 2 years. If he mystically returned to form during his tenure, it's nothing more than a lengthy tryout. If he doesn't, he isn't even close to worth it. I don't see a good reason to lose out on a 2nd round pick (that has a fair chance of working out) and payroll for a lousy pitcher that's only asset is the strikeout. -2.3 WAR over the last two seasons doesn't look good. And do remember that this is the same team that couldn't fix Francisco Liriano. The only pitcher I'd give over 12 million a year to is Tanaka.
All together, I'd like Tanaka, Hughes, and Kazmir.
I agree 100% with MyHouseIsYourHouse: The best targets are in order:
Tanaka: Young, good stuff, could be a #1. Expensive, YES. But worth it.
Kazmir: He's 30. He looks like he's made it back. We couldn't hit him if our lives depended on it last year.
Hughes: Still young, has the ability to miss bats. Gives up too many HR's. Yankee Stadium doesn't help, Target Field will.
Josh Johnson intrigues me, but scares me. The guy just can't stay healthy.
Colby Lewis: Interesting, but I don't know enough about where he is at health-wise and whether the Rangers want him back.
Any way you slice and dice this. The Pohlads and Terry Ryan have to "show us the money." As Patrick Reusse said in an earlier column, they don't even appear to be trying. I would also love to see them get serious and sign the young Cuban SS. Good grief we need a SS!!!
I'd say there is about a 90% chance Lincecum ends up in Seattle.
Yes. I say go for it. But I think I would rather have kazmir and ubaldo from cleveland