Chance of Draft Picks Making the Bigs and Having an Impact
***WARNING! There will be statistics in this post! I am not and do not claim to be an expert with statistics! My math skills are usually correct 100% of the time....75% of the time! You have been warned!***
Yesterday BaseballAmerica released an article that states 1 in 6 players , precisely 17.2%, that are drafted make it to the bigs for at least one game. They got this number by studying the 22 drafts from 1987-2008 to see who has made it for at least one cup of coffee. Why stop at 2008? Stopping at 2008 gives the high school players at least 5 years to get to the bigs. Our own 2008 first round draft pick Aaron Hicks is getting his first chance this year. Their results were very interesting. Especially when you combined them with draft statistics they released before this years draft(which we will explore later).
Out of the 900+ players drafted last year 17.2% will make it to the bigs but as you can figure the chance of making it to the bigs is different depending on where you were drafted. A 11-20th rounder has only a 6.8% chance to make it to the show while a 1st rounder has a 73% chance. Out of the 6.8% of 11-20th rounders that make it to the show only 1.6 of those make an impact (impact as defined by BA for this study is 450 games for position players and for pitchers either 75 decisions (starters) or 150 games (relievers)). Compare that to the 39.1% chance that the first rounders have to being an impact player and value difference becomes apparent. Even in the first round the chance of making it to the show varies. Players drafted in the first 5 picks have an 88% chance to make the majors while the rest of the first round has about a 70% chance.
Instead of focusing on all 900+ players drafted let's focus on the top 100. Specifically our players drafted by Ryan the pass two drafts by experience (college vs HS) and position. Let's focus on the 1st round supplemental picks (make Bigs%:52.3 impact%:15.8), 2nd rounders (make bigs%:49.4 impact%:16.1), and 3-5 (make bigs%:34.6 impact%:10.1). Using drafted round success/impact success and position success/impact success I will try to show the statistical chance our prospects will make it to the bigs and make an impact.
RHP College- 37% chance to play 50 games but only a 15% chance to contribute 5 WAR+.
Eades: 2nd round -Bigs% 43.2% Impact% 15.7%
Bard: 1st supplemental- Bigs% 44.7% Impact 15.4%
Chargois: 2nd round- Bigs% 43.2% Impact% 15.7
LHP College- 48% chance to play 50 games but only a 14% chance to contribute 5 WAR+.
Melotakis: 2nd Round- Bigs% 48.7% Impact% 15%
RHP Highschool- 33% chance to play 50 games but only 11% chance to contribute 5 WAR+.
Stewart: 1st round- Bigs% 60.5% Impact% 39%
Berrios: 1st supplemental- Bigs% 42.7% Impact% 13.4%
Catcher College- 52% chance to play 100 games but only 12% chance to contribute 10 WAR+.
Turner: 3rd rounder- Bigs% 43.3% Impact% 11%
RF college- 28% chance to play 100 games and 12% chance to contribute 10 WAR+.
Walker II- 3rd rounder- Bigs% 31.3 Impact: 11%
CF Highschool- 33% chance to play 100 games and 11% chance to contribute 10 WAR+.
Buxton- 1st rounder- Bigs% 60.5% Impact: 39%
Let's compare success and impact rate of our two top 5 picks, Buxton (2nd) and Stewart (4th), versus our 2011 1st round pick Michaels (30th).
Buxton and Stewart both have a 60.5% chance to spend significant time in the bigs compared to Michael's 52% chance. That's an 8% difference because of a ~25 pick difference. The difference would be significantly larger if we weren't comparing a college player vs high school. When looking at impact% we see the importance of a high first round pick vs a low first round pick.
Buxton/Stewart chance for 10 WAR+-39%, 20 WAR+- 15.5%, 30 WAR+ 12%
Michael's chance for 10 WAR+-17%, 20 WAR+-7%, 30 WAR+ 6%
Rebuilding is hard but losing brings future value. While it is commonsense that the higher you pick, be it 1st round vs 3rd round or top 5 pick vs 30th pick, the more value it brings. Here are the stats that prove it. Sort of...
Quoting Ron DeLegge, "99 percent of statistics only tell 49 percent of the story."
Top 100 Draft Flashback: Impact Players, Notable Flops - BaseballAmerica.com