More and more, I'm intrigued by Ball. Hard-throwing, high upside (high risk) lefty. Much more interested in him than McGuire.
There's no way Boston can cut a deal with Stewart that forces the Twins to pass on him.
Boston 6.8 million for the first 10 rounds, 3.2 million for their 1st pick. Say the Twins want to take a five percent discount on Stewart and Boston says they will offer him 4th pick slot (4.5 million). They've now gone 1.3 million over slot on their first pick, and if they want to stay within 5% of their allotment they've now got 2.6 million to spend on the rest of their picks which are worth 3.6 million. They have to average more than a 25% discount on the rest of their picks; if they don't sign one of them, they have to manage an even bigger discount on the ones that they do.
They are either relegated to taking a bunch of college seniors and guys who didn't expect to make it into the top 10 rounds or losing their first round pick next year. So yes, cutting a big deal with Stewart would mean that Boston is punting either this year's or next year's draft.
If Stewart falls to Boston it will be because the teams ahead of them all like somebody else better.
I don't think I'd be upset if the Twins took Shipley. He can touch the high 90's with his heater and would probably sign slightly under slot, giving the Twins a bit of flexibility later.
Ball is also interesting and he's got momentum
I think you are getting too cute here. If the Twins want Stewart they will pay him more or less slot and he will sign.
Again, its just a theory. Teams are allowed to be creative. We're getting too hung up on the numbers with Boston. I'm not saying it absolutley will happen. I'm simply suggesting it could.
Maybe using the Marlins would have been a better example, though it's unlikely they spend much. They have more money to spend, so, in theory, they could rearrange dollars to spend more than the picks ahead of them. They can't stop teams from picking their guy, but if an advisor knows they stand to make more money by not going they simply ask for more from that team. A guy falls due to his price tag and signs for more than slot later. Did Giolito and the Nats do something last year? Probably different cause he was hurt, but his advisor was probably fully aware the Nats would spend to a certain point, which could have easily been more than the Indians would have been willing to spend had he gone in that spot instead of Naquin.
I'm not suggesting anything illegal. I'm simply suggesting teams getting creative. Maybe the Red Sox can't make it work, maybe they don't want to make it work, maybe the Twins love Stewart and will give him full slot, maybe they don't and won't. At the end of the day, though, if the Twins did take him, I'm not suggesting he turns them down and enrolls in school, but he sure will leverage the situation to get the highest number possible.
I should probably watch how I word this, but I'm a big fan of Ball's, too. With his physical tools and what sounds like a pretty smart approach to developing his game (uses a wooden bat now & didn't even try a breaking pitch until he reached the high school level,) he seems pretty committed to improving his skills package. Plus he appears to have the flexibility of switching from either the bump or the box if he should falter at whichever position he tries first. Personally, I'd start him in the OF and see if he can handle the stick at the pro level. If it doesn't work out in a few years, he should be physically mature with a well rested cannon from the left side. There's always room in the pen at least for a southpaw who can throw in the mid-90's.
Regardless of the money if you could cut a deal with the redsox that would keep you out of the MN Twins org, wouldn't you do it? Every athlete wants to win championships, right? People were upset that Buxton looked unhappy when the Twins drafted him, but can you blame him? Until the Twins realise that the game revolves around POWER, power hitting and power pitching, the Twins are an undesirable landing spot for most prospects/free agents.
Assuming Grey and Appel are gone the Twins should take Ball or Bryant. They have to take Bryant if he's there and Ball if he's not. They should stay away from Stewart for multiple reasons. Shipley would be OK but Mcguire would be a huge disappointment.
In the process of digging more up on Ball and Shipley and the Twins interest in them. Every day the interest in McGuire appears more legitimate.
Anyone else think Stewart is similar to JO Berrios?
Current developments suggest the Twins have narrowed their focus to Stewart, McGuire and one other unknown player. This assumes 1-3 go as expected.