1. Improvement - Vance Worley had a 7.22 ERA in April and 7.20 in May showing no improvement. Pelfrey had a 7.66 ERA in April but dropped it 2 runs to 5.50 in May.
2. Injury - Worley had a minor corrective procedure to remove bone spurs last September which we haven't heard caused him any issue this year. Pelfrey is coming off of Tommy John and was expected to start the season weaker and get better.
I don't think his leash is super long but Pelfrey probably deserves another 4-5 starts before pulling the plug.
I don't get why Pelfrey "deserves" anything. Much like Pedro Hernandez didn't "deserve" to lose his rotation spot.
But dig into the numbers a bit more and a different story is told.
Worley BABIP: .401 (incredibly unlucky)
Pelfrey BABIP: .368 (very unlucky but looks like a lottery winner compared to Worley)
Worley HR/FB: 15.5% (LOL, ouch)
Pelfrey HR/BB: 6.8% (absurdly low and will only trend upward)
Worley GB: 47.1%
Pelfrey GB: 40.1% (given that he only puts the ball on the ground four of ten times, expect many balls to start leaving the park)
All of that translates to...
Worley xFIP: 4.83
Pelfrey xFIP: 5.33
Worley has pitched very badly this season. Pelfrey has pitched worse, only he's slightly luckier than Worley. Nothing about watching Mike Pelfrey makes me think he's going to succeed this season. It was a good gamble but it was just that... a gamble. He shouldn't continue to get playing time if he continues putting up horrendous numbers while also magically avoiding home runs (something a pitcher has very little control over).
I'm not against the Worley demotion because he's pitching like crap, as evidenced by his mid-20s LD%. But he's not pitching worse than Pelfrey and Mike doesn't deserve a roster spot over Vance, particularly if he figures it out in Rochester.
If Hendriks was healthy, I'd be all in favor of kicking Pelfrey to the curb and giving Liam the rest of the season to prove his mettle.
I live in Chicago, so I don't see a ton of games. I watch on MLB.tv if I am sitting by my computer but I don't sit down for entire games a lot.
That said, I wanted to throw this out and there and get a sense for what everyone else thinks...
All the BABIP numbers are out there...but the few times I have seen Worley...once in person at the Cell, in possibly his only good start, he seems less unlucky and more unimaginably hittable. I feel like at a certain point his BABIP isn't about luck as much as he's just getting crushed. Granted his BABIP will come down because that number is crazy high, but I have a hard time thinking that number is solely bad luck.
I wish Pelfrey all the best, but he is only under contract for this year.
This is a lost year. It was in March and we all pretty much knew that. Let the kids pitch and see if any of them can stick. I would rather see us getting our a$$ kicked while we are finding if any of those youngsters can make it in the bigs.
Frankly, I don't see what Pelfrey, or Correia for that matter, do for our future.
I'd give Pelphrey until Gibson reaches his Super 2 date (June something?). They knew when they signed him it could take half the season for him to get back on track. I'd love if he'd accept a demotion now though, and just go down for 3-5 starts. Call up albers or walters.
You keep on pointing out his FIP also, but some glimmer of hope can be expected there given that Worley hasn't walked a ton of guys and his HR rate hasn't been terrible (which you could very possibly call lucky).
I don't think either one capture how poorly he has truly pitched.