Keith Law released his latest future 50. While its not mock draft, he does have Manaea at #4.
"after these two guys, you could go in a lot of directions. There is no clear No. 3." He has Meadows three....
He has Meadows at 3.
Manaea has upside be he does worry me a bit with the decrease in velocity and inconsistent slider. Both were plus to plus-plus pitches in the cape cod league.
I didn't see the Lefty from UM on the list or the list of players close. Windle was not listed. It sure looks like he will be available for our second pick. As far as Manaea goes, I know it is early but he might be a close to a lock for the twins at 4. Gray and Appel will be gone. Now I'm not saying he will be available by the Twins pick, I just don't think the Twins would pass on the Manaea if he did slip, which i think he will.
While he didn't have Windle on the list, it must be an error, he did have another UM LHP Shelton on the other names to know list. He also had two Minnesota HS players in his top 50.
Also, I completely disagree that Manaea is a lock at 4 unless he gains his cape cod form back. Twins proved last year they are taking the BPA regardless of position. While he easily could be the BPA at 4 he isn't a lock IMO. Way too many question marks.
I think this is the guy as well. He hasn't been at the Cape level but he has been solid and Law made the point that this has actually established a pretty solid floor based upon this season. If he was still at the Cape level he wouldn't make it to the Twins.
The bats look solid but none of them have especially separated themselves either.
Didn't pitch this weekend due to hip injury I believe. While I currently prefer about 7 players over him he seems like the most likely player to go #4. Hopefully the injury isn't serious and he can get back to cape cod form before the draft.
Jason Churchill did a mini poll of his sources, mostly crosscheckers and scouting supervisor, on Stanek, Eades, and Manaea and this caught my eye:
What about Manaea? "He has a chance to be the best of the three," the senior scout continued. "The problem is there's more hope involved. When your'e drafting a college pitcher that high, usually the preference is to avoid a lot of risk like that."
Manaea only has four more starts till the draft so hopefully he can show scouts something. I know his risk scares me.
Well Jon Heyman seems to think the Astros liked their underslot payment stratagy from last year and doesn't sound convinced the Astros are a lock for a pitcher at #1.
Of course even in the unlikely event they pass on a pitcher, the Twins would still need to convince Colorado or Chicago to follow the same path.
Perhaps the Astros pass on the big 2 but it's very unlikely that the Cubs/Rockies do. The Cubs are almost for sure going with a pitcher and the Rockies single biggest need is pitching. i don't see how they pass on Appel/Gray and go for Manaea unless Boras really holds that much power.
Manaea coming back from injury didn't look so hot. 4 innings, 5/4 K/BB ratio, and gave up one ER. His fastball was sitting in the mid 80s and his slider was still inconsistent. Crawford had an interesting quote from a NL Exec:
"If this was a good class, I'm not sure [Manaea] goes in the first round," an NL executive told me. "But because he was so good [last] summer and because the depth is not there, he'll likely be a top-10 guy. I don't see it, but I guess some team will be hoping he can rediscover his Cape stuff. It won't be us."
Manaea has only 3 more starts before the draft.
I wonder if there is any way for interested clubs, especially those in the 3-8 range, to get ahold of medical records and/or get a physical done. Scott Boras could lose a lot of money in this deal if Manaea drops.
I am really not sold on Manaea. Early in the year he intrigued me but since this injury and with a drop in velocity I dont know how you make him your pick at #4. The potential is there but its much riskier than it was 2-3months ago
To be even considered in the 3-8 range Boras is going to have to answer some of the medical questions around Manaea you would think. I was working on my draft board today and after the top 6 guys I was having a ton of problems filling out the back end of the top 10. Manaea is such an enigma for me.
For months I was preparing to be content with Manaea as the Twins' pick but when I hear reports about a once-a-week pitcher losing significant velocity, I head for the exits. I'd now much prefer they draft the best bat rather than settle for the fourth best college arm (if Manaea can even be considered that). It's a shame that this year there are no enticing bats that would push the near-term college arms down just a bit. Just a bummer of a year for a team with a bat rich minor league system to be picking fourth.
Too bad none of the pro leagues allow their teams to trade draft picks. What!? All but one league does? $#@^%#^