Projecting the Twins 2013 Record... with rosy projections
A post in another thread (thanks, beckmt) got me thinking about this real hard... if by chance things do "go right" for the Twins next year, where could we expect them to end up? We can have a little fun with the Pythagorean Theorum to get a back-of-the-napkin idea. This formula factors runs scored and allowed to come up with the number of wins a team could expect on average.
Last year, the Twins scored 701 runs and gave up 832 for a pythag-projection of 68 wins (compared to our actual 66 wins). So, if we run through a series of potential and desireable fates, we can take a stab at adjusting the number of runs scored (or allowed) from last year and see where we stand.
1. CF production is adequately replaced by a young player (or retread, for that matter) and matches Span's production. Net 0 runs.
2. Plouffe turns into an above average three-bagger with a .270 avg and 25+ HRs. This would put his offensive production in the Ryan Zimmerman range and move his projected RC (runs created) from mid-50s to 95ish. +40 runs scored.
3. Parmelee sticks and does well enough to post .280 / 30 2Bs / 15 HRs. This puts C-Parm around 90 runs created. The Twins generated 80 offensive runs from RF in 2012. Parmelee's defense compared to Revere will cancel out that gain. +10 runs scored, +10 runs allowed.
4. Mauer and Morneau have good years and stay healthy. Mauer did just that last year, so no change there. Morneau could top his second half numbers and end up with an OPS around .825 for +20 runs scored.
5. Dozier, Carroll, and Florimon hold down the MI and hit .260+. The defense improves some and a marginal increase in BA provides +10 runs scored and -5 runs allowed .
6. Fresh blood in the rotation allows starting pitching to improve dramatically with a group ERA a little above 4. This would get the rotation back to about MLB-average and, despite an increase in IP, result in -100 runs allowed.
7. Bullpen remains solid. The Twins were MLB-average here last year despite marginal performances by some contributors. The improved rotation results help the pen stay rested and pitch fewer innings (558 down to 500) resulting in -25 runs allowed.
Now, this all assumes the team stays healthy and we don't see regression from any of the folks not named here (looking at you, Josh Willingham). These rosy scenarios would put the Twins runs scored at 781 and runs allowed at 712 for a pythagorean projected record of 88-74.
So, what do you say? Could everything go right for the Twins in 2013 and reverse the dreaded start of our downfall in 2011 when everything went wrong? What else could go right and push these numbers higher?