Buxton vs Sano aka Potential vs Advancement
This was brought up in the recent thread about the BP Twins top 10 list, but I want to talk about it a little more generally, so I thought I'd start a new thread.
It is not uncommon to see a recent high draft choice be at the top of an organization's prospect ranking list. It's not crazy to do so. After all, they have made a significant investment in that player and their scouts (and likely scouts of other teams) are in love with him. And yet....
Scouts are often wrong. Teams are often wrong. I don't know how many first round picks (or top 10 picks) don't make the majors at all, but I'm sure studies have been done on that. I'd be interested to see how it compares to a fairly young guy who does well (not great, but well) at AA. (AA is often viewed as the league where the biggest step up is taken for prospects.) I wouldn't be surprised if the latter has a better chance of making it to the majors or even of having a successful major league career. They might even have a better chance at being an All-star.
If that's the case, then you could make a pretty good argument that Hicks or Rosario should be ranked higher than Buxton, and maybe higher than Sano. Or, maybe more importantly, that the organization should value them more - targeting similar players in a trade and be more willing to trade away the possible future star (or bust) who is still in the rookie league.
Am I crazy?