I see this argument a lot as it pertains to teams like the Mets, with valuable walk-year veterans in R.A. Dickey
and David Wright
. We saw it last year when the A’s signed Coco Crisp
to play center field. The perceived value of putting a respectable team on the field is quite low, but as the A’s showed last year, the actual value of doing just that can be extremely high. We simply don’t know enough about the future to say that Dickey and Wright aren’t going to be part of the next competitive Mets team. We do not have the forecasting capabilities to look at a 75 win team and tell them that they can’t be a 90 win team in the following year.
There’s too much variation in baseball for teams to simply accept their most recent record as evidence of their short term future.