Aaron and I have argued a bit on the relative value of Jeremy Guthrie, and I don't see why we should have all the fun....
How would you feel about the Twins signing Guthrie to the amount that is in the Handbook: 2-years/$16M. (Let's ignore, for now, that he thinks he's going to get 3/34, for the purposes of this discussion.) Here's his baseball-reference page. Here's his Fan Graphs page.
On the one hand, he's pretty consistently thrown about 200 innings per season with an ERA usually around 4. (Since 2007, when started in the majors full time, his ERA is 4.03 IF you throw out his crappy stint in COL last season.)
On the other hand, he's 33 years old and his career strikeout rate is 5.4 K/9. His career xFIP is 4.63.
I would welcome him at that Handbook's price. I would not welcome him at the price he's looking for. I understand the concern about his "stuff." But I think there's room for an inning eater on this staff.
More like a Pavano type contract at best!
John, your comment about stuff I dont agree with.
No doubt, he's not the strikeout pitcher all of us would like. However, he is a hard thrower...maybe hardest throwing starter the Twins have had since Frankie's 06 season. His 92.8mph FB this season equals his career average with a high of 93.4 in 07. This would be a nice compliment to the softball pitchers we throw out usually.
I love that he eats innings, had very good career ERA during his time in Balt (4.12) in a bandbox, & doesnt get hurt.
If he is THE top offseason acquisition, dont love it. If he's 2nd best, would like it alot.
I'd rather target Marcum who throws softer but is more effective with the stuff he has as demonstrated by his superiour K/9. You'd think he'd be similarly priced. Guthrie at 5M is a different topic.
Guthrie doesn't do much for me. Although Fangraphs crowd-sourced contract projections have Guthrie at 2/$12. I could handle that. Although I think they're too low. For instance, they have Edwin Jackson at 3/$36 and Marcum at 2/$20. Sign me up if that's the case.
I always liked Guthrie when he pitched in Baltimore. In fact, I think I had him in a blueprint of mine one of the last two years. I like him. I think he can be a solid #3. I'd be good with Guthrie at 2 years and $12 million or so, but I just couldn't go higher than that.
I always thought Guthrie's bad W-L in Balt was due to bad luck, as his periperals were always solid.
However, there are types of pitchers who will always pitch just good enough to lose.
I dont think Guthrie is one, but I do think there is something to that & something to consider
I would never even consider him. I am not sure how on earth anyone with a sub-6 K/9 rate warrants a serious consideration in the slightest. I don't want the Twins to add another Carl Pavano.
Paying $6-10 million a year for someone who is only marginally better than a replacement level pitcher for under 1/10th of that price is preposterous.
I do not want Guthrie, Saunders, or Blanton, but I am sure we'll sign 2 of the 3.
I'd take a shot on Guthrie, the guy can eat you innings and should be able to post to close to a 4.00 ERA, if he could be our "pavano years 2009-2011" he'd be worth bringing in a 2 year deal, 13 mil tops though.
I would to, but Marcum is going to be significantly pricier at the end of the day. If the Twins can grab one of Shields/Johnson/other top pitcher on the trade market, I wouldn't be too upset if they supplemented the rotation with signing Baker and Guthrie.
Originally Posted by nicksaviking
wouldn't be to bad, of course replace Guthrie with Marcum and suddenly the Twins have a playoff contender rotation.
I saw his contract demands and laughed. I think Seth hit the nail on the head, any higher than that is too much.
Guthrie is 33.
It would an error to look at his last two years and think the next two years project similarly. His k-rate has no room to decline. As for innings eater, is there a way to predict who will be a future inning eater? Is it an ability that can be projected at 33?