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You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.ph...rting-Pitchers
Why would the Twins promote May over Meyer to AAA?
Im curious as to why you feel Alex Meyer will start at AA. Not saying he won't just curious why you think he will and does he have a innings limit this year? Also, what are the chances of Ryan Pressly beginning in the minors so one of the other pitchers out of options gets bullpen duty with the big club rather then being exposed to waivers?
1 reason to promote May to AAA is because he has had 2 years already in AA, just sayin , maybe a bump up will get things clicking, and how many starters can you have in Rochester, unless your going with a 7 man rotation...As for seeing Meyer in Minnesota before May(the pitcher) , the Twins have shown time and again , they will dip down into AA for players, So that will come down to how both these kids do , and how they handle themselves this spring
AAA is largely an irrelevant step for getting to the bigs. It's a place holder often for marginal MLB talent.
If you asked all 30 MLB teams out there if they'd rather have their roster of AAA guys or their AA guys, almost all of them, if not all of them, would choose their AA teams.
If a player has any shot at contributing to the MLB level while at AAA...he's usually only there until his super 2 status date is up (often middle June).
I would have been satisfied to have a rotation of Correia, Pelfrey, Deduno, Diamond and Gibson or Worley or Anthony Swarzak. They all deserve a chance to realize their potential as major league starters. Once we let them go, I'll bet one or two of them will become an effective starting pitcher on a major league team.
A "few" comments:
1. I suspect Meyer will be at AAA, although there's definitely a logjam. But while there may be more potential on a AA roster, the current hitting and pitching talent is better at AAA than AA, and Meyer will learn more there. And to me, there's no such thing as a logjam when you're talking about your best starting pitching prospect. YOu put him where he needs to be and let the rest of it work itself out.
2. I also think Gilmartin will be at AAA, unless he still has shoulder problems, in which case he might be at EST. I don't think he gains much by going back down to AA, and he's probably our highest ceiling lefty prospect in the high minors.
3. I had Hermsen starting (or at least being a swing guy) at NB. He had a horrible season last year, but he's one year removed from minor league pitcher of the year. I wouldn't think the Twins would give up on him that fast, but maybe Seth has inside knowledge on this one.
4. Given his age and success, I would think the Twins would move Jason WHeeler up to AA. I can't figure out how he wins so often, but I don't think he has anything left to prove at FTM. See if the smoke and mirrors work in AA.
5. I have Eades starting the year in CR. I don't think his Etown results last year are meaningful, but I'd let him prove it in CR. IF he's dominating, then promote him.
6. Seth, you don't have Bard anywhere on your list. I think he's supposed to be healthy again, and I had him at CR, but do you know more?
7. I had GIlbert as the (a?) closer at FTM. Are they really serious about turning him into a starter? To me his skills seemed to translate better to closer.
8. To your EST list, I would add Sam Gibbons. I think the twins are pretty high on him. Again, maybe you know more.
9. ANd lastly, what conversation about moving Pressly to a starting role? I can certainly see him at AAA so they can stash someone with no options remaining on the ML roster, but I've never heard anyone except a few people on this board talk about him being a starter. He had practically washed out as a starter when they converted him to relief, and he shone. What makes anyone think the results of him starting would be any different this time?
What about Swarzak starting ?
If service time/money, and MLB tradition were all thrown out the window, which five guys on this list would be in the Twins starting rotation to start the year, to give them the best chance at winning the most games?
As for Meyer, I 100% agree with doing what is best for him. I'd never block a top prospect, which he certainly is, but I also think that 3-4 starts in AA to start the season won't hurt him at all.
Wheeler could certainly move up too. Gilbert... I've just heard too many people say he could start. In the Q&A he did at this site last month, I think he wants to be in the bullpen.
Regarding Pressly, I'd keep him in the bullpen too, but with all the out of option types, I could see them sending him down, and the only benefit he might get from that would be to stretch out.
If you're asking which five starters are best for the Twins to start the season, in my opinion... Nolasco, Correia, Pelfrey, Hughes and Gibson.
My instinct tells me that Pressly is sent to AAA because of the options issue. Worley if he does not win the 5th starter(this depends on Deduno being healthy) will be in the bullpen(he has worked there before). That leaves Diamond being cut as the odd many out. Still to many starters and not enough innings to go around. Early spring training can tell, not to decide who wins, but who loses the battle. Twins probably need many multiple game days to get there inbetween pitchers enough innings to make a difference.
Are you sure that Darnell will be in Rochester? Assuming that Deduno, Diamond and Worley either make the Twins, there are six pitchers (in bold above) who will likely make the Rochester rotation before Darnell and another one of them needs to make the New Britain rotation. Also, how many LHP will the Rochester rotation have?Quote:
They are Scott Diamond, Vance Worley and Samuel Deduno. All three have shown a measure of success in their careers. Also in the fifth starter mix will be righty Kyle Gibson who debuted halfway through the 2013 season. Though he struggled, he is potentially still a #2/3 starter. Finally, let’s not forget that Alex Meyer and Trevor May will certainly get long looks during spring training.
There are others, new to the organization, who will also likely receive long looks. Lefties Kris Johnson and recently-claimed Brooks Raley pitched in the big leagues in 2014. LeftySean Gilmartin came to the Twins in exchange for Ryan Doumit. Another lefty, Logan Darnell, was added to the 40 man roster last fall, which may mean his time in big league camp will be limited. However, he is certainly one to watch at Rochester in 2014.
What good do 5 starts in AA do? What do you do then, if he's the guy they think he is?
I agree with the above poster, while there are guys with higher ceilings in AA, there are also a bunch of guys that won't even make AAA, let alone the majors. In AAA, there are legit MLB players, and AAAA guys and AAA guys. AAA is definitely a better all around challenge in terms of facing consistently better players, if not stars. And, for a pitcher especially, that would be a better challenge. Half or more of the hitters Meyer faces in AA aren't good MLB prospects.
I do think Seth has it right, but I'd much rather Gibson was up if he was ready, and Meyer was in AAA getting challenged by nearly every hitter. If Gibson looks ready, there is no reason to have him in AAA, at his age, and have KC or a random guy up here, imo. Heck, if it doesn't matter if a guy is at AA, send one of the random AAAA pitchers in Seth's list to AA, and put Meyer in AAA. I prefer the challenge your stars route, to the protect your stars route. Some teams do one, some do the other. I'm sure neither is drastically different for the eventual outcomes though.
The Twins appear to have several good pitching prospects in the system. It is critical they develop these prospects into major league assets. They have not shown much success in those areas. They might look to organizations like the Cards, A's and Rays. How have they been able to continually find young pitchers? Not only do the pitchers find success but they arrive at the majors at a younger age.
I think the following is important.
- A pitcher must be moved aggressively enough to struggle and learn how to work through it at the minor league level. They will be better prepared to handle the struggle they will certainly encounter at the major league level. They need their confidence shaken and build the character to work through it.
- A pitcher aging curve on fangraphs won an award at SABR this year. It is far different than hitter. Velocity and strike outs begin their decline at an early age. The Twins need to have a plan for their pitchers to reach the majors at younger ages than hitters. They need to make the most of the velocity.
This is a link to the first in the series http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch...-introduction/
The velocity of Gibson, Meyer and May is likely already in decline. Gibson and Meyer, in particular, need to be in the majors this year. Other teams would do it. May needs to arrive also.
The top prospects like Berrios and Stewart need to be pushed more aggressively than one step at a time. The Twins need to make the most of their velocity at the major league level. If they happen to draft a college pitcher, they need to look at the path of guys like Sonny Gray and Michael Wacha.
The Twins have some young talented pitchers. I am certain Seth is spot on in his projections. This is consistent with the the Twins practice in previous years. It doesn't appear consistent with some other organizations that have successfully developed young pitching. Do the Twins the correct plan for developing the talent? It is critical for their future success.
If I could love that post, instead of like it, I would.
It's time to eliminate the "non-prospects". Some, we have seen pitch, some came from other teams. Let them duel it out in Spring training--and then cut right-to-the-bone--so those from the lower levels (with upside) get their innings to develop. The "feel-good" stories should not be the operating philosophy.