Thread: ESPN: Lohse to Brewers

ESPN is saying Lohse is going to Brewers on 3-year/$33 Million deal (with an additional million available in bonuses). I'd say that's better than the $13.3 for one year qualifying offer. And miles and miles better than what it seemed likely he'd get at this point. Wonder how long it will take him to be ready to start.

It sucks to lose the 17th pick for Lohse. I'm surprised.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

It sucks to lose the 17th pick for Lohse. I'm surprised.

Meh, what's the success rate on the 17th overall pick?
If someone feels like looking it up that would be an awesome bonus, but I'm guessing its a whole lot more miss than hit.
If they feel like Lohse can help them make the playoffs, then the 17th pick shouldnt stop them from making the deal.

17th Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft - Baseball-Reference.com

Not excellent, but Lohse isn't either.

All histrionics aside I think Boras ended up getting a decent contract for Lohse, especially considering there was compensation.

I think he misjudged the market a little at the beginning of the offseason but recovered fine.

Who's the poor guy bumped out the rotation?

Probably Wily Peralta, who has great upside. If he is somehow available via trade, I know a team that should be calling.

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

Meh, what's the success rate on the 17th overall pick?
If someone feels like looking it up that would be an awesome bonus, but I'm guessing its a whole lot more miss than hit.
If they feel like Lohse can help them make the playoffs, then the 17th pick shouldnt stop them from making the deal.

A 17th pick overall in the hands of the Cardinals is seemingly better than a 17th pick in the hands of everyone else. I have nothing to back this up but I believe the Cards have drafted better than most everyone.

A very good deal for the Brew crew. The price of pitching is going up next season and they can always trade him for better than a 17th prospect, something the Twins should do!

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

A 17th pick overall in the hands of the Cardinals is seemingly better than a 17th pick in the hands of everyone else. I have nothing to back this up but I believe the Cards have drafted better than most everyone.

The Cards don't get the 17th pick, however. The Brewers only lose it.

Originally Posted by biggentleben

The Cards don't get the 17th pick, however. The Brewers only lose it.

Thats right... I knew that...

however... If the Cards had the 17th pick... They'd find something.

Originally Posted by Brad Swanson

17th Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft - Baseball-Reference.com

Not excellent, but Lohse isn't either.

Halliday and Hamels have been stiffs

The Cards don't get the 17th pick but they do get a sandwich pick probably in the 30's.

It's a fair deal all around imo. Like most FA contracts I think it's likely that the Brewers don't get a good value in the final year of the deal but Lohse is a solid 4.00 ERA starter. That's a reasonable projection instead of just looking at his last 2 years.

Originally Posted by kab21

The Cards don't get the 17th pick but they do get a sandwich pick probably in the 30's.

It's a fair deal all around imo. Like most FA contracts I think it's likely that the Brewers don't get a good value in the final year of the deal but Lohse is a solid 4.00 ERA starter. That's a reasonable projection instead of just looking at his last 2 years.

FWIW, Bill James is projecting a 3.63 ERA, of course I'm sure that would go up a bit now that he's moving into a hitters park.

4.45 career ERA and only 3 seasons <4.00 out of 2000 innings. They were 3 recent seasons but I'm not as optimistic as the computer projections are for a 34 yr old.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

A 17th pick overall in the hands of the Cardinals is seemingly better than a 17th pick in the hands of everyone else. I have nothing to back this up but I believe the Cards have drafted better than most everyone.

A quick scan of the link Brad Swanson provided indicates the Cardinals have never had the 17th pick in the first round. Go figure.

It's true, as old nurse point out, that gems like Halladay and Hamels have been found there. However, you get 100% of whatever Lohse has to give these next 3 years (which could include injury etc), versus about a one in ten chance of getting someone like that in the draft. Spending $33M for that, versus low cost if you hit the draft jackpot, it still seems like a deal with decent upside.

Originally Posted by Brad Swanson

17th Picks Overall in the MLB June Amateur Draft - Baseball-Reference.com

Not excellent, but Lohse isn't either.

I did not know baseball-reference had this. That is awesome. I've just spent 15 minutes playing with it. I learned:
1) that the Twins have had a LOT of 20th picks in the draft, including Span, Plouffe, Parmelee and Torii Hunter.
2) the fourth pick in the draft can net some pretty good players.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

I did not know baseball-reference had this.

Once you have the data in there, just a little facility with database management (which I don't have but fortunately b-r.com provides) multiplies the value about 1000X.