Appel not signing?

According to Jon Heyman (via mlbtraderumors--link below), Appel is leaning against signing with the Pirates, because he wants more than the 3.84m bonus the Pirates can give, and not surrender a first round pick. I'm not sure I understand this move; isn't next year's different class, at least at this point, considered a stronger one than this year's? Therefore wouldn't Appel project to fall right aroudn this spot again, or does he think he'll be able to improve his stock that much in one year? Furthermore, doesn't the fact that he exhausts his eligibility at Stanford next year reduce his bargaining power? Basically, it seems like Appel, thanks to Scott Boras, is walking away from nearly 4 million dollars gauranteed, in the hopes that he moves up to the 1st-3rd slot. Maybe I'm missing something, but if I'm not, I'm kinda surprised, because I thought Stanford was supposed to be for smart kids.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/0...medium=twitter

Isn't Heyman known as a mouthpiece for Boras? Could be a negotiating ploy, though I'm not sure to what end. Appel would have to be insane to walk away from that kind of money.

Just out of curiousity, if he is drafted in similar position next year, and again chooses not to sign, how long before he can sign with anyone as a free agent? 1 year?

I wonder if we can look forward to seeing him in a Saint Paul Saints Uniform.

I haven't seen one respected writer suggest that next years class looks stronger, so that may be the only thing Appel has going for him. Even if the draft class in the same or even weeker than this year, its still a stupid risk for Appel.

It is well documented that 2012 class was the weakest in a decade. It was especially weak in the top 10 and became weaker when Giolito injured his arm. Appel has to realize that he likely will not go any higher in next year's draft. Even a below average group will be better than this year's group. I wonder if Boras' plan is to test this case in court and try to make him a free agent.

Another signing period, another high prospect threatening up to the last moment that he won't sign. Wake me up when he hasn't signed after the 14th.

Here is a link to an ESPN article about next year's draft class. http://espn.go.com/high-school/baseb...layer-rankings

Here's another thing Appel might want to think about if he's hoping to go go high next year and get a big signing bonus - he will then have a track record of being difficult to sign, which may cause other teams to look elsewhere. My guess, if he goes into next year's draft, is he falls again to mid 1st round.

He better just take the large amount of money the Pirates are offering and start playing his professional career.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbknudson

Just out of curiousity, if he is drafted in similar position next year, and again chooses not to sign, how long before he can sign with anyone as a free agent? 1 year?

---

I am curious about that too, if he falls in next years draft due to signability concerns or injury, his slot amount might be less than what he could get if he waited a year (if that is the time) and opened up the bidding to all teams.

Of course I doubt it would be any where near the 3.8M he potentially is turning down now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by biggentleben

Another signing period, another high prospect threatening up to the last moment that he won't sign. Wake me up when he hasn't signed after the 14th.

---

Agreed. All of the unsigned guys - as of now - aren't gonna sign. And of the big names (Appel, Gausman and Giolito), Appel has by far the least leverage.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jorgenswest

It is well documented that 2012 class was the weakest in a decade. It was especially weak in the top 10 and became weaker when Giolito injured his arm. Appel has to realize that he likely will not go any higher in next year's draft. Even a below average group will be better than this year's group. I wonder if Boras' plan is to test this case in court and try to make him a free agent.

---

Klaw mentioned that (while it's still early) Appel would probably be #1 in next years draft, too.

While I generally agree with the sentiment that he should take the 3.8m and start his career, it is conceivable that he could make more if he doesn't sign. I think the risk is too much and wouldn't do it but I'm not him. Cubs could take him in the top 3 for instance and pay him 5-6m pretty easily. And while he lacks some leverage, I don't think any team taking him next year would try to screw him over by giving him a lowball offer or not intending to sign him - esp since Boras is such an important agent in all of baseball. He could slide but I think teams will be better prepared for sliding players next year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Klaw mentioned that (while it's still early) Appel would probably be #1 in next years draft, too.

While I generally agree with the sentiment that he should take the 3.8m and start his career, it is conceivable that he could make more if he doesn't sign. I think the risk is too much and wouldn't do it but I'm not him. Cubs could take him in the top 3 for instance and pay him 5-6m pretty easily. And while he lacks some leverage, I don't think any team taking him next year would try to screw him over by giving him a lowball offer or not intending to sign him - esp since Boras is such an important agent in all of baseball. He could slide but I think teams will be better prepared for sliding players next year.

---

An extra year of free agency after his six year service time is worth up to ten times more than any additional bonus he'll get for holding out.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbknudson

Just out of curiousity, if he is drafted in similar position next year, and again chooses not to sign, how long before he can sign with anyone as a free agent? 1 year?

---

Unless there is a court case of some sort, he would never become a free agent. If he doesn't sign this July, he would go back into next year's draft. If he doesn't sign then, he would go back into the next draft. And on and on.

New system.....which most of us love.....could be the end of Scott Boros style agents in the draft. Boros, not Appel, cost the pitcher several slots in this draft.....meaning millions

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

New system.....which most of us love.....could be the end of Scott Boros style agents in the draft. Boros, not Appel, cost the pitcher several slots in this draft.....meaning millions

---

Yep, If I were a big time draft prospect I don't even think I would hire an agent (by that I mean listen to an advisor). In fact I would probably just wait until I made my big league debut before I started looking into agents.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rocketpig

An extra year of free agency after his six year service time is worth up to ten times more than any additional bonus he'll get for holding out.

---

Only if his body holds up after all those years. Mark Prior's signing bonus was almost as much as his entire career earnings.

(That's why I'd take the 3.8m now rather than risk another year of college ball but there is some sense in trying to make as much as you can now instead of hoping for a major payoff 6-9 years from now).

I guess God's plan for him was to turn down almost $4 million in hopes of an extra few million next year. God is great! And works in mysterious ways!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Only if his body holds up after all those years. Mark Prior's signing bonus was almost as much as his entire career earnings.

(That's why I'd take the 3.8m now rather than risk another year of college ball but there is some sense in trying to make as much as you can now instead of hoping for a major payoff 6-9 years from now).

---

The key difference is that now, signing bonuses are slotted. That limits what Appel can get in the first place.