Thread: Rule 4 Draft

Some data below from baseball reference. I used data through 2011 which is problematic since some have barely begun their careers. There will be a little bias in favor of college players.

Pick	Status	selected	majors?	WAR 10+	WAR 30+	WAR 50+
1	college	24	22	14	2	0
2	college	24	22	12	3	2
3	college	21	18	8	3	1
4	college	26	23	7	4	3
		95	85	41	12	6
1	HS	23	19	11	6	3
2	HS	23	19	6	0
3	HS	26	18	7	2	1
4	HS	21	13	7	2	0
		93	69	31	10	4

While it is clear that a player selected from college has a better chance of playing in the majors. It is not clear that they have a better chance of being a significant major league player.

So with Zimmer's last horrific start that puts a serious question mark on him. He could be hurt but if he doesn't get his velocity back up he could end up being available at the 32nd pick. I really want an ace College pitcher who is close to the bigs but there are just too many questions around the players in this draft that I wouldn't want to reach for a need and end up with Adam Johnson. Appel's hitability(10 hits last game) and high pitch counts(149 last game!), Zimmer's dropped velocity, Gausman's control, Watcha's lack of a 3rd pitch, Stroman's size and lack of a 3rd pitch. Those are the only ones who profile as a potential ace. To me it's down to Zunino, McCullers, and Giolito. I know we need pitching and we currently have a catcher but the system's weak and Zunino won't be up until late 2013 or 2014 at the earliest and alot could happen in that time. Morneau could be gone or the permanent DH potentially moving Mauer to 1B or even 3B and being a back-up catcher. If anything Zunino could be trade bait down the road to get that ace we need so he's my favorite as of now. Of course I was happy with the Shooter Hunt pick, really liked Ben Tootle, and thought that Derrick McCallum was gonna be the 2B of the future so I'm wrong a lot.

Mark Appel or Zimmer. We dont need another outfielder.

Originally Posted by righty8383

Giolito never had surgery as far as I know.

You're right, he didn't get surgery. But it was his UCL, so that's kind of scary.

In response to the post with the college vs. high school WAR stats: Baseball Prospectus did a piece, maybe a year ago or so, that showed that the gap between high school and college picks is narrowing, even to the point where high schoolers may now be a relative bargain. I remember one thing they attributed this too was better scouting and more information on these kids. I could find the link, but it's probably behind the paywall anyway.

Also, what kind of player do you feel most comfortable with the Twins developing?

Personally, I see no evidence that the Twins could transform Appell or Zimmer into aces. But I would trust them Byron Buxton given their track record with developing even less-touted outfielders in Hunter, Span and Revere. As for my pick, Zunino, I don't think they could screw him up, just get the kid to the majors.

Originally Posted by Fanatic Jack

Mark Appel or Zimmer. We dont need another outfielder.

This is the exact attitude that gets teams in trouble. Go back and look at old drafts. You could go through those drafts and say "We could've had him?!" a bunch of times but no one remembers that we were over stocked with outfielders or we really needed pitching that year. All people look at is we passed on Chase Utley for Adam Johnson or we drafted Ryan Mills instead of C.C. Sabathia. If you tunnel vision yourself into only college pitchers then you could end up with Kyle Sleeth when Nick Markakis was on the board. Not saying we should stay away completely or that we should draft another outfielder, just that this draft is really shaky when it comes to college pitchers. There are some years with a Verlander or two and there are others with a bunch of Adam Johnson's and Kyle Sleeth's.